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两伊结成新联盟 波斯湾未来叵测

The U.S. removal of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in 2003 created a new dynamic between Iraq and Iran. The two nations, which fought each other in the 1980s, have re-established close ties - with implications for the region and the United States.

美国在2003年推翻了伊拉克总统萨达姆?侯赛因，使得伊拉克和伊朗的关系进入一个新阶段。这两个在1980年代交战的国家重新建立起密切关系，给这个地区和美国都带来了影响。巴格达和德黑兰关系升温带来了什么效应呢？

After fighting each other for nearly a decade, in a conflict that cost a combined half-million military casualties, Iraq and Iran ended their war in a stalemate in 1988. The two states remained coldly hostile for another 15 years.

伊拉克和伊朗交战将近10年，双方军队伤亡总和高达50万人，两国终于在1988年结束了这场僵持不下的战争，随后15年，伊拉克和伊朗保持冰冷的敌对状态。

In 2003, U.S. forces invaded Iraq and drove Saddam Hussein and his Baath Party from power. The result of that was the rise to power of the Shi’a, Iraq’s majority, whom Hussein had largely excluded. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his Shi’a Dawaa party are now a major force in Iraq’s government.

2003年，美国出兵伊拉克，推翻了萨达姆?侯赛因和他领导的阿拉伯复兴社会党，结果，让排斥侯赛因在伊拉克占多数的什叶派掌权。现在，马利基总理和他领导的达瓦党成为伊拉克政府的主流。

Iraq has renewed relations with its Shi’a neighbor, Iran, a move some in Washington view with concern.

伊拉克和什叶派邻国伊朗恢复了关系，这让华盛顿的一些人士感到担忧。

But Iraq’s Ambassador to the United States, Lukman Faily says America has to accept Baghdad charting its own course.

可是伊拉克驻美国大使卢克曼?菲利说，美国不得不接受巴格达走自己的路。

"It is important for the United States to understand that Iraq is an independent country, Iraq is a sovereign country, but Iraq is a proud ally of the United States," said Faily.

卢克曼?菲利说： “美国要认识到伊拉克是一个独立国家，这点很重要。虽然伊拉克是一个主权国家，可是伊拉克也为是美国的盟国而骄傲。”

Faily also deflects¹ criticism that renewed ties with Tehran have given Iran too much influence in Iraq.

有人批评说，巴格达和德黑兰恢复关系，会受到伊朗的很大影响。

Persian Gulf² analyst³ Afshin Molavi of the New America Foundation said what Iran wants would look like Lebanon.

新美洲基金会（the New America Foundation）波斯湾问题分析人士奥夫辛?莫拉维说，伊朗想让伊拉克成为黎巴嫩。

"Iran’s vision is creating an Iraqi Hezbollah. They were hoping that Moqtada al-Sadr could become the Hassan Nasrallah of Iraq, the leader of an Iraqi Hezbollah-type political party that would be both a militia⁴ and a political party that could also provide social services. It’s a model that has served them well in Lebanon," said Molavi.

他说：“伊朗想要在伊拉克建立真主党，他们希望萨德尔能够成为伊拉克的纳斯鲁拉，也就是类似伊拉克真主党的领袖，既是武装力量，又是可以提供社会服务的政党，这种模式在黎巴嫩很成功。”

Another Washington analyst, Fred Kagan at the American Enterprise Institute, said Iraq charts its own course, but often works in concert with Iran.

华盛顿的美国企业研究所的分析人士弗莱德?凯根说，伊拉克虽然走自己的路，可是常常和伊朗一唱一和。

"Fundamentally, Iraq is acting⁵, at this point, in the region as an ally of Iran on a state-to-state level in terms of its support for [Syrian President] Bashar al-Assad, in terms of Dawaa support for oppositionists in Bahrain, and just in terms of allowing the Iranians to flout⁶ the [UN, U.S. & E.U.] sanctions regimes in an outrageous⁷ fashion."

凯根说： “基本上，伊拉克支持阿萨德，达瓦党支持巴林反对派，支持伊朗以蛮横态度藐视国际制裁。从这个角度来看，伊拉克目前是伊朗在这个地区的盟友。”

Molavi said the Iraq-Iran relationship is a matter of cold pragmatism and opportunism.

分析人士说，伊朗和伊拉克的新关系使得美国不得不接受现实，即没有一个国家可以控制动荡波斯湾的未来。

 "At the end of the day, I mean, these are amoral national interest states. You know, and these amoral national interest states will find reasons, you know, to shunt aside their ideologies⁸, their religious affiliations⁹, their sectarian identities, if they feel it’s both in the national interest of their state, but also, in the personal interest of their political elites¹⁰."

Analysts¹¹ say the emerging Iran-Iraq relationship compels the U.S. to accept that no one state will be able to control the outcomes in the volatile¹² Persian Gulf.

奥夫辛?莫拉维说，伊拉克和伊朗关系是实用主义和机会主义。