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VOA慢速英语2013 Older Populations Are a Fact of Life for Many Countries

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Older Populations Are a Fact of Life for Many Countries

I’m Barbara Klein.

And I’m Christopher Cruise with EXPLORATIONS in VOA Special English. The number of young people in Africa is growing. So is the number of older people in Asia. In fact, the United Nations says that, very soon, every fifth person in the world will be over the age of sixty.

This week, we tell how some areas are dealing1 with changing populations.

How should countries prepare for the world’s aging population? A United Nations report is urging countries to answer that question.

Japan has the world’s oldest population. Thirty percent of Japanese are older adults. The UN report says by the middle of this century, sixty-four countries will have that level of the population over age sixty.

 Jose Miguel Guzman is head of the UN’s Population and Development Branch. He says people are living longer for many reasons. They include improved nutrition, medical developments, better health care, education and economic well-being2. But he says the fact that more people are living longer can create problems.

“Steep population aging also means an increased demand for income security, health and long-term care, which creates huge socio-economic and cultural challenges that will need to be addressed with a strong political and appropriate social policy.”

The UN report says populations are aging in all parts of the world. The most-rapid age increases are in developing countries. In those countries, people live -- on average -- sixty-eight years. By twenty-fifty, the average person will live seventy-four years. Life expectancy3 is seventy-eight in developed countries. Children born today in developed countries can expect to live until the age of eighty-three.

Richard Blewett is chief executive officer of HelpAge International, a publication partner of the UN report. He says, in many countries, older people are not seen as helping4 the economy.

“Governments are not really living up to the expectations of their senior citizens and they could do a better job. What’s needed there is long term vision and strong political will and a clear sense of priorities.”

Mr. Blewett says sixty-seven percent of the older people who answered questions for the report said their biggest problem was employment discrimination. But he said some countries are beginning to see the advantages, or gains, of having older adults. For example, grandparents in rural China increasingly care for grandchildren as their parents move to cities to find jobs.

Martha Farnsworth Riche is the former head of the United States Census5 Bureau. She says a community in Australia talked with its retirees about their transportation needs.

 “One very simple thing that came up, was that people needed more time, pedestrians6 needed more time, to cross the street. Now there was (a suggestion to) run the street lights with longer green light time.”

Other changes include reforming social security systems in developed countries. Another is creating social safety systems in developing nations where traditional family support systems are disappearing. The report says the most cost-effective and humane7 thing a society can do for its older citizens is to invest in their health so they can remain active.

Researchers are warning that aging populations present challenges for governments when economic productivity is falling. This year, the government in Singapore released a song dealing with a population issue. It urges young people to produce more children to help end a drop in fertility rates.

The song is fun, but the problem is serious. By twenty-thirty, the number of older adults in Singapore will rise two hundred percent from current levels.

The government is offering to pay up to three thousand two hundred fifty dollars for each of the first two children. It will pay almost five thousand dollars for the third and fourth children.

Starting in the nineteen eighties, Asia’s young, working-age population helped the area become an economic success. But things are changing. Donghyun Park is an economist8 with the Asian Development Bank. He says what is happening in Singapore is also happening in other countries.

“That the share of the elderly -- those aged9 sixty-five plus in total population -- as well as relative to the working age population is steadily10 increasing across, across developing Asia. And of course, I mean Asia’s no different from the advanced economies, right, that experienced its demographic transition much earlier.”

Two years ago, more than twenty two percent of Japan’s population was age sixty-five years or older. In recent weeks, Japanese political leaders have been asked how they plan to care for the growing number of older adults.

In Thailand, the population older than sixty-five rose to just over seven percent in twenty-ten from three point six percent in nineteen seventy-five. Thailand’s family planning efforts have led to much-smaller families. In the nineteen sixties, mothers had an average of five to six children. Now, that number has fallen to one point five. That is well below the number of births needed to keep the population count unchanged.

Vipan Prachuabmoh is dean of population studies at Chulalongkorn University. She says the falling population threatens to have a long term effect.

“We concerned that we will have decline in the number of population in the labor11 force age -- right, so, so the numbers starting to decline. And we also see that we have very sharp rising in term of number and proportion of population in the old age group. So now we start to concern about the sustainability, development of the country because we still have problem in term of, we have, in term of human capital.”

The problem for governments is that increasing population growth to help keep productivity levels high can also create problems. Vipan Prachuabmoh says those issues include reforming the education system, increasing labor skills and preparing a new generation for an aging society.

China and India have used family planning programs to help reduce population growth. But researchers say such efforts will have harmful, long-term effects.

Parents choosing the sex of their children, and medical technology, have created large gender12 gaps. The UN Population Fund says there are one hundred seventeen million women “missing,” mostly in China and India. The Fund has predicted that, by twenty-thirty, China and India will have fifty percent more men than women of marriageable age.

Wolfgang Lutz is with the Wittgenstein Center in Vienna, Austria. He says worldwide, progress has been made in balancing population growth with fertility rates. But he says other issues remain.          

“It really depends on adding what some people call the quality dimension in addition to the quantity -- meaning, the focus on human capital, on education and health rather than just the head count. Lot of countries have made a lot of progress and it’s also when you are sort of re-evaluating the global evidence and the, the drivers behind these recent declines in fertility and increases in economic well-being, health status. It is really the, the educational efforts -- particularly the education of girls -- has been one of the driving factors.”

The Asian Development Bank says education will help to solve the problem of an aging workforce13. Better-educated and better-trained work forces can increase productivity, which leads to stronger economic growth.

The World Bank says a lack of good jobs for an increasing number of young people in Africa threatens the continent’s recent economic growth. The Bank says economic development is important to success, especially in areas south of the Sahara Desert.

Shanta Devarajan is the World Bank’s Chief Economist for Africa. He says the number of young people entering the work force is one of the main reasons Africa’s economic growth will continue.

“Africa may be the only source of young people very soon, because the rest of the world is aging and some of the world -- including Europe and, and Japan and the U.S. -- are aging quite rapidly. So this is potentially -- Africa could be a great powerhouse in the future.”

Shanta Devarajan says a growing population of young people could threaten economic development if it is not controlled in the right way.  

“The most important risk or the most important threat is the fact that despite all of this growth, the number of productive jobs being created as a result of growth is still very limited relative to the number of young people entering the labor force every year.”

The World Bank says sales of natural resources can help developing countries, but they must be used to help improve the lives of average citizens. And good governance will help ensure that citizens, both rich and poor, can profit from such sales. Punam Chuhan-Pole is the World Bank’s Lead Economist for Africa.

“If you look at the share of income that is going to the poorest twenty percent of the population, it is rather low. It’s about six percent, which is comparable to what you see in other countries. So looking at, at how growth in these countries as well as wealth is impacting the poor, the results don’t seem that promising14.”


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1 dealing NvjzWP     
n.经商方法,待人态度
参考例句:
  • This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
  • His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。
2 well-being Fe3zbn     
n.安康,安乐,幸福
参考例句:
  • He always has the well-being of the masses at heart.他总是把群众的疾苦挂在心上。
  • My concern for their well-being was misunderstood as interference.我关心他们的幸福,却被误解为多管闲事。
3 expectancy tlMys     
n.期望,预期,(根据概率统计求得)预期数额
参考例句:
  • Japanese people have a very high life expectancy.日本人的平均寿命非常长。
  • The atomosphere of tense expectancy sobered everyone.这种期望的紧张气氛使每个人变得严肃起来。
4 helping 2rGzDc     
n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的,辅助的
参考例句:
  • The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
  • By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。
5 census arnz5     
n.(官方的)人口调查,人口普查
参考例句:
  • A census of population is taken every ten years.人口普查每10年进行一次。
  • The census is taken one time every four years in our country.我国每四年一次人口普查。
6 pedestrians c0776045ca3ae35c6910db3f53d111db     
n.步行者( pedestrian的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • Several pedestrians had come to grief on the icy pavement. 几个行人在结冰的人行道上滑倒了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • Pedestrians keep to the sidewalk [footpath]! 行人走便道。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
7 humane Uymy0     
adj.人道的,富有同情心的
参考例句:
  • Is it humane to kill animals for food?宰杀牲畜来吃合乎人道吗?
  • Their aim is for a more just and humane society.他们的目标是建立一个更加公正、博爱的社会。
8 economist AuhzVs     
n.经济学家,经济专家,节俭的人
参考例句:
  • He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
  • He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家,自以为什么都懂。
9 aged 6zWzdI     
adj.年老的,陈年的
参考例句:
  • He had put on weight and aged a little.他胖了,也老点了。
  • He is aged,but his memory is still good.他已年老,然而记忆力还好。
10 steadily Qukw6     
adv.稳定地;不变地;持续地
参考例句:
  • The scope of man's use of natural resources will steadily grow.人类利用自然资源的广度将日益扩大。
  • Our educational reform was steadily led onto the correct path.我们的教学改革慢慢上轨道了。
11 labor P9Tzs     
n.劳动,努力,工作,劳工;分娩;vi.劳动,努力,苦干;vt.详细分析;麻烦
参考例句:
  • We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
  • He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后,他已经疲惫不堪了。
12 gender slSyD     
n.(生理上的)性,(名词、代词等的)性
参考例句:
  • French differs from English in having gender for all nouns.法语不同于英语,所有的名词都有性。
  • Women are sometimes denied opportunities solely because of their gender.妇女有时仅仅因为性别而无法获得种种机会。
13 workforce workforce     
n.劳动大军,劳动力
参考例句:
  • A large part of the workforce is employed in agriculture.劳动人口中一大部分受雇于农业。
  • A quarter of the local workforce is unemployed.本地劳动力中有四分之一失业。
14 promising BkQzsk     
adj.有希望的,有前途的
参考例句:
  • The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
  • We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

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