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　　文艺；美伊问题;云计算;

　　A Single Roll of the Dice²: Obama's Diplomacy³ with Iran, by Trita Parsi.

　　《孤注一掷：奥巴马的对伊政策》;特里塔·帕塞著;

　　With dark rumours⁴ swirling⁵ of an attack on Iran's nuclear programme, this new book by Trita Parsi is well-timed. The founder⁶ of the National Iranian American Council in Washington, DC, details American diplomacy with the Islamic Republic under Barack Obama. His analysis of the grim stalemate that has characterised relations between the Great Satan and the mullahs since 1979 is both absorbing and frustrating⁷. It is a tale of missed opportunities, obduracy⁸ and short-sightedness, all which are pushing the Middle East towards greater instability.

　　特里塔·帕塞新作的面世，伴随着针对伊朗核计划的漫天谣言，来的正是时候。作者曾创立了位于华盛顿特区的伊朗裔美国人全国理事会，在本书中，他详细阐述了奥巴马领导下的美国政府对伊斯兰共和国的外交路线。自1979年起，“大魔头”和“毛拉”之间的关系一直深陷僵局，作者对这一严峻状态的分析既引人入胜又令人沮丧，书中讲述了中东是如何因为错失良机、顽固执拗、目光短浅等缺点而一步步陷入更大的动荡之中。

　　Under George Bush, America's relationship with Iran festered. The two powers collaborated⁹ occasionally in Afghanistan, but with America driven by the premise¹⁰ that “we don't speak to evil”, detente was a distant possibility. America saw negotiations¹¹ not as a tool of diplomacy but as a reward to be granted only to those states that had proved they were deserving of them. Iran, grouped with North Korea and Iraq as part of the “axis of evil”, was not.

　　在乔治·布什领导期间，美伊关系交恶。两国曾在阿富汗事务上有过数次合作，但随着美国将“不与罪恶结交”作为外交前提，两国和解变得遥遥无期。对美国而言，协商不是一种外交手段，而是一个嘉奖，只有那些能证明自己值得交往的国家才配和美国进行协商。作为和朝鲜、伊拉克为伍的“邪恶轴心国”，伊朗自然是不够格的。

　　The inauguration¹² of a new president who from the start promised the Muslim world respect and who offered the hand of American friendship to those willing to unclench their fist, prompted stirrings of hope, both in Iran and beyond, that this could be a new start. (Farsi speakers also noted¹³ that Obama means “He is with us”.)

　　新任总统在参选之初就郑重保证，将尊重穆斯林，并把美国的友好传达给所有愿意松开拳头的伊朗人。他的就职演讲给伊朗乃至整个穆斯林世界带来了一丝希望，新的开始仿佛就在眼前。（伊朗人还认为，奥巴马是“和我们站在一起的”）

　　But the bitter mistrust that divides Iran and America, and the domestic considerations of leaders on both sides, eroded¹⁴ that initial optimism. Time and again in negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme, America and its allies assumed Iranian duplicity and insincerity. For their part, the Iranians saw in America's outstretched hand only the determination to snatch from their country its independence, rights and potential.

　　然而仇视和不信任导致美伊两国决裂，加之双方领导人推行了一系列国内政策，这些都扑灭了尚在襁褓的希望之火。随着一次次对伊朗核计划的探讨，美国及其盟友们将伊朗视作伪善的骗子，而在伊朗看来，美国插手伊朗事务，就是为了剥夺他们的独立，权利和潜在的能力。

　　Even during the deepest chill of the cold war, America and Russia found ways of talking. Today a frozen silence stretches from Tehran to Washington. “When you don't know what's going on, and you don't feel like you have somebody you can communicate with on the other side of the table, you are going to revert¹⁵ back to what's safe…and what's safe in the Iran context is demonization and just general negativity,” explains an American official.

　　即便是在冷战最僵持的时期，美苏两国也曾设法进行沟通，而今，弥漫在伊朗和美国之间的是冰冷的沉默。“当你对现状毫无头绪，谈判桌上又话不投机，你就会退回到安全的状态，而在伊朗看来，所谓的安全状态就是将美国妖魔化，挑起大众的消极情绪。”一位美国官员如是解释。

　　Iran's reluctance¹⁶ to engage goes deeper: “Tehran cannot come to terms with Washington without risking an internal identity and legitimacy¹⁷ crisis.” Animosity towards America is written into the Islamic Republic's DNA¹⁸. If the relationship is restored, “we will dissolve ourselves,” admits Amir Mohebian, an Iranian conservative.

　　伊朗的抵触情绪则日渐深重。“伊朗要重回谈判桌，就得冒着国家身份缺失和合法性危机的风险。”对美国的仇恨铭刻在伊斯兰共和国的血液里，伊朗保守派人士埃米尔·莫比安表示，一旦美伊关系恢复，“伊朗将会自我毁灭”。

　　But diplomacy with Iran, maintains Mr Parsi, has never been pursued to the point of exhaustion¹⁹. Look at Libya (before the recent uprising), Vietnam and Northern Ireland, he insists, and the painstaking²⁰ years of quiet discussions with each of them. The talks between America and Iran, a few weeks here, a fortnight there, have never matched that. The approach has focused on the nuclear issue to the exclusion²¹ of all others, a take-it-or-leave-it attitude that has always been doomed²². Negotiations such as these succeed not because the proposals are flawless or because both sides play fair, but “because the many flaws associated with the talks are overcome by the political will to reach a solution”.

　　但帕塞表示，美方与伊朗的外交关系远没有走到尽头。他认为，和（暴动之前的）利比亚，越南和北爱尔兰，以及与它们多年痛苦而漫长的讨论协商相比，美伊两国间或进行的短期谈判绝对算不了什么。美伊接触的焦点一直围绕着核问题展开，回避了其他问题，双方态度也僵持在要么全盘接受，要么统统滚蛋的状态。而纵观那些成功的协商谈判，并不是因为提议有多么完美，或是谈判双方有多么公正，而是“因为希望解决问题的政治意愿克服了谈判中出现的种种缺憾”。

　　That political will, says Mr Parsi, has been absent. The mutual²³ mistrust has left no margin²⁴ for error. Neither has seen any domestic political benefit in pushing for a serious settlement. And now, with the tick-tocking of the nuclear clock growing ever more insistent²⁵, reconciliation²⁶ looks less and less likely. The enmity between America and Iran, stoked by three decades of demonising each other, is no longer a phenomenon, concludes Mr Parsi. “It is an institution.”

　　帕塞认为，美伊缺少的正是这种政治意愿。双方互不信任，因而无法容忍对方的任何过失，加之没有任何国内政治利益能推动美伊冲突得到切实解决。而现在，随着伊朗核武器的日渐面世，美伊和解的可能越来越小。30多年来，美伊两国相互攻击诋毁，两国间的敌对状态已经不再是一个现象，引用帕塞的话来说，“这已然是个习俗。”

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