经济学人34:非理性信仰 Irrational belief

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　　文艺；书评；信仰的力量；非理性信仰；

　　The Believing Brain: From Ghosts and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies¹—How We Construct Beliefs and Reinforce Them as Truths. By Michael Shermer.

　　《有信仰者》：从鬼神到政治阴谋——我们是怎样形成信念并固以视之为真理。——麦可·薛默著。

　　Michael Shermer is a psychologist, cyclist, one-time fundamentalist Christian², founder³ of Skeptic⁴ magazine and, currently, the author of a monthly column with the same name published in Scientific American. He has built a professional career out of casting a rationalist's eye over some of the wackiest beliefs that humanity has to offer.

　　麦可·薛默(Michael Shermer)是一位心理学家和骑自行车爱好者，曾经一度是基督教原教旨主义者、《怀疑论者》杂志的创始人，而现在是《科学美国人》中与其同名的每月专栏的作家。他已成就了他的职业生涯，因为他以理性的眼光审视人们情不自禁流露出来的某些极为荒谬的信念。

　　But his latest book is more than just a display case full of specimens⁵ collected by a man fascinated by the paranormal. Mr Shermer is interested in how such beliefs come to be held, and why they can persist even in the face of what, to others, can seem to be the overwhelming evidence that contradicts them.

　　然而他的最新著作不仅仅是装满了着迷于超自然的他所收集案例的展示柜。而且薛默先生还展示了他感兴趣的是人们是怎么怀有这样的信念以及为什么他们在面对似乎有压倒性证据去反驳他们时还固执己见。

　　The first part of the book is a mixture of psychology⁶ and trendy neuroscience research that presents the evidence for Mr Shermer's central claim: that, instead of shaping belief around painstakingly⁷ gathered, soberly judged evidence, people most often decide upon their beliefs first, and then use an impressive range of cognitive⁸ tricks to bend whatever evidence they do discover into support for those pre-decided acts of faith.

　　该书的第一部分是心理学和盛行的神经科学研究的大杂烩，提供了证明薛默先生主要观点的证据：也就是，四处煞费苦心收集来的成形信仰和冷静判断的依据。人们很多时候首先决定自己的信念，然后，无论他们所发现证据是否去支撑他们以前决定的信仰行为，他们也利用一些令人印象深刻的认知骗局去扭曲事实。

　　In the second part of “The Believing Brain” Mr Shermer applies those observations to the almost infinite variety of weird⁹ and wonderful beliefs that people hold, from alien abductions to government conspiracies to bring down the World Trade Centre—and, inevitably¹⁰, to religion (a chapter on politics, by contrast, feels misplaced and forced). He is an able skewerer of sloppy¹¹ thinking. The section on conspiracy¹² theories, for instance, memorably¹³ exposes the bizarre leaps of logic¹⁴ that adherents¹⁵ often make: “If I cannot explain every single minutia¹⁶ [about the collapse¹⁷ of the twin towers]…that lack of knowledge equates¹⁸ to direct proof that 9/11 was orchestrated by Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld and the CIA.”

　　在《有信仰者》第二部分，薛默先生引用了这些对人们所怀有的几乎所有怪异信仰的观察结果，从外星人绑架到炸毁世界贸易中心的政府阴谋，不可避免地也谈及到宗教（相比之下，政治这一章让人感觉有点错位和牵强）。他是一个能干的凌乱思维整理者。例如， 关于阴谋论部分，明显出现逻辑思维的断层：信徒们常常认为“如果我不能解释出[关于双子塔倒塌]的每一细节... ...这认识的缺失相当于直接证明9/11是布什、切尼、伦斯斐和中央情报局精心安排的。

　　A common risk with this kind of book is that the author comes across as overly smug and superior; just look at how the duke of debunkers, Richard Dawkins, is sometimes perceived, even by his fans. Mr Shermer is aware of this risk, and is at pains to reassure¹⁹ readers that his conclusions apply to everyone, even himself. In a chapter on alien abductions, he recounts an abduction story of his own. Exhausted²⁰ after cycling 1,259 miles in 83 hours as part of an endurance challenge called the Race Across America, he becomes convinced that the motorhome carrying his support team is actually an alien spacecraft, and that his team's pleas for him to come inside and get some rest are merely a cunning pretext²¹ to get him to co-operate with a spot of alien probing. Surprised when the interior of the mothership turns out to closely resemble a General Motors motorhome, Mr Shermer consents to lying down. On waking a couple of hours later, he is able to joke about the experience with his team-mates.

　　这类书籍的常见风险是，作者看上去好像过于自以为是和过于哗众取宠;只要看看揭露真面目者的公爵理查德·道金斯有时给人的感觉就明白了，甚至连他的粉丝也有这种感觉。薛默先生是意识到这种风险，并煞费心思地使认为“作者的结论适用于每个人，甚至他自己”的读者安心下来。在关于外星人绑架那章中，他讲述了他自己的绑架故事。经过被他称为战横穿美国的长征的83小时1259英里的骑行耐力挑战后，他筋疲力尽。他开始相信，装载着他支持的球队的房车实际上是一艘外星飞船，他的球队那让他进去歇歇的请求仅仅是一个狡猾的借口好让他与之合作一起探索外星船。当他发现母舰内部酷似通用汽车房车，薛默先生十分惊讶并同意躺下歇会。他在两个小时后醒来，他还能拿这经历来和队友们开玩笑。

　　That experience gives one useful definition of a sceptic, as Mr Shermer understands the term: one who is aware of the fallibility of intuitions, and willing to take steps to minimise them. It remains²², sadly, an uncommon²³ combination.

　　这经验给出了怀疑论者的很好的定义，正如薛默先生理解术这语一样：一人意识到直觉的不可靠性，并乐意采取措施尽量减少直觉的偏差。可惜，这仍是一种不寻常的组合。

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