经济学人56:扑朔迷离的未来

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　　文艺；书评；巴基斯坦未来；扑朔迷离的未来；

　　The Future of Pakistan. By Stephen Cohen and others.

　　《巴基斯坦的未来》，斯蒂芬·柯恩著。

　　It seems optimistic to write a book called “The Future of Pakistan”; it assumes the country has one. Tot up the assorted² threats and its survival may look dubious³: Islamists, separatists, potentially stray nuclear weapons, the war in Afghanistan, economic and natural disasters, a booming and restless young population, unfathomably venal⁴ leaders, rotting institutions and violent megacities. Any of these could yet spell the country's demise⁵ (see our special report this week).

　　作者似乎以乐观的态度写《巴基斯坦的未来》这本书；书中倒是希望巴基斯坦的未来会让人乐观。综合各种威胁，巴基斯坦的犹存似乎让人疑虑重重：伊斯兰教徒和独立主义者盛行，潜在的核武器事端，阿富汗战争，经济和自然灾难，迅速增加的颓废的年轻人，国家领导人卷入受贿深渊，机构腐败，大城市暴力事件不断。上面的任何一个事件可能招致这个国家的灭亡。

　　Individually, none of the 17 expert contributors to this frank and detailed⁶ volume is quite so apocalyptic⁷. But their collective mood is grim. In pondering scenarios⁸ for the coming years, these various specialists have produced a flood of gloomy details and prognoses.

　　不同的是，在这本平实而详细的书中，17位撰稿人没有任何一位作出预言般的警告。但是这些专家都感觉前景的黯淡。当思考未来愿景时，这些来自各个行业的专家都传达大量令人沮丧的事实和预测。

　　Stephen Cohen, a well-respected observer of Pakistani politics at the Brookings Institution, sets the tone by observing how Pakistanis lack even a shared idea of their nation. They are increasingly divided between the urban and rural, the educated and illiterate⁹, and by competing religious strands¹⁰. “The new normal is abnormal,” he observes.

　　巴基斯坦布鲁金斯研究所的备受尊崇的政治家斯蒂芬柯恩，通过观察巴基斯坦人如何缺少意见交流，以此定下本书基调。城市和乡村，高等学历者和文盲之间的分化日益严重，宗教团体竞争日益激烈。“正常之中有些反常” 斯蒂芬柯恩说。

　　The country is threatened by various long-term trends. Of Pakistan's 185m people, two-thirds are younger than 30 years old. Only the population of Yemen—hardly a model of stability—is more youthful. One poll taken among such youngsters and cited in the book suggests that three-quarters might emigrate if given the chance. Also many of the young hold extreme religious views, unleashed¹¹ by the zealous¹² regime of Zia ul Haq in the 1980s.

　　这个国家正收到各种长期流行趋势的威胁。巴基斯坦的18.5亿人口，2/3的人口都未满30岁。只有也门的人口，因其流动性小，人口年轻化更严重。通过对年轻人的民意调查，显示3/4的年轻人如果给予机会就会搬迁。本书也引用这次调查结果。也有很多热衷于穆罕默德·齐亚·哈克政权持的年轻人被释放，他们持有极端宗教主义观念。

　　Rapid urbanisation brings more problems. Over a third of Pakistanis now live in towns and cities, where tribal¹³ and rural rivalries¹⁴ are morphing into violent, urban warlordism. Town-dwelling Pakistanis are “historically more religious and conservative than rural populations,” writes Shuja Nawaz of the Atlantic Council. They also have smaller families, and the youngsters are often left to fend¹⁵ for themselves. Thus it is in towns that both extremists and the armed forces increasingly find recruits, which bodes¹⁶ ill for preserving moderate views inside the army. Oddly, little space is given to the bloody¹⁷ turmoil¹⁸ in Karachi, perhaps the world's most violent metropolis¹⁹.

　　城市化的快速发展也带来不少问题。超过1/3的巴基斯坦人居住在城镇和城市中，部落和农村日益蜕变成暴力和城市的傀儡。来自大西洋理事会的舒贾·纳瓦兹说，居住在城镇的人“历史性的变得比农村人更虔诚更保守”。他们的家庭人员很少，最小的孩子不得不照料自己。在城镇中极端分子和武装力量成员日益壮大，军队的中立态度预示着好的征兆。奇怪的是，血腥的暴力事件频繁发生于卡拉奇，它恐怕是世界上最残忍的大都市。

　　The army's destructive habit of meddling²⁰ in Pakistani politics continues unabated. Roughly every decade this switches from explicit²¹ power grabs to unsubtle efforts to manipulate civilian²² leaders. For now Pakistan is in the latter phase. Though this book went to press before the most recent civilian-military clash, known as Memogate, the authors may well prove largely right in predicting lots of scheming but no new coup²³ for some years yet.

　　军队并没有改掉总是插手于巴基斯坦政治这个破坏性的恶习。似乎每个十年都发生从攫取政权到试图操控平民领导人的转变。现在巴基斯坦处于后者的掌控中。虽然此书在军民冲突（备忘录门）前已经出版，但其在预测大量阴谋方面的观点都正确，但是几年来没有产生新政权的更替。

　　Within the gloom there are glimmers²⁴ of hope. Most of the authors expect Pakistan to hobble forward more or less in its current state. The lives of some will improve. Literacy rates are rising fast (79% of men under 24 can now read, says the World Bank), families are shrinking (even in rural areas the norm is now to have four children, down from as many as ten two generations ago) and the press, generally, is more open than before. One sharp contributor, Aqil Shah, reckons that Pakistan will become “neither Sweden nor Somalia”, as the army's strong grip will prevent disintegration²⁵ but also block growth of strong civilian institutions. Even an optimist¹ would not describe Pakistan's glass as half full—keeping it unbroken may be the best one could hope for.

　　在阴霾之中还有一丝希望。面临这样的状况，大部分专家希望巴基斯坦人能或多或少在蹒跚中摸索前行。一些人的生活会得到改善。教育普及率迅速增加（据世界银行说24岁以下的人中79%的人能阅读 ），家庭人员减少（在农村普遍是四个孩子，比两代前的很多孩子相比下降）。Aqil Shah认为巴基斯坦不会步瑞士和索马里后尘，军队紧握政权使其免于风崩离新的可能，但也阻遏了平民机构的强劲增长。甚至乐观主义者也不会将巴基斯坦描绘为半满的玻璃杯——而保持这个玻璃杯的完整可能是人们最希望的。

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