经济学人72:寻医问药 In need of therapy

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　　商业评论；书评；华尔街分析；寻医问药；

　　Exile on Wall Street: One Analyst¹'s Fight to Save the Big Banks from Themselves. By Mike Mayo.

　　《流放华尔街》：一个财务分析师为拯救作茧自缚的大银行而战斗的故事。迈克·梅奥著。

　　Mike Mayo likes to ask blunt questions about issues that no one else will touch. To some, his queries² are sparklers that light up dreary³ quarterly earnings⁴ calls between the heads of major banks and financial analysts⁵; to others, they come from nowhere, rockets that bring down banking's high-fliers.

　　迈克·梅奥喜欢追问一些尖锐的、他人不愿去触碰的问题。在一些人看来，他的质疑就像照亮黑暗角落的焰火，使大银行的高管和分析师们关于季度收益的枯燥讨论引起关注；对另外一些人来说，他的问题就像凭空冒出来的火箭炮，一下子就能把金融业的强人掀翻在地。

　　Mr Mayo is a well-known bank analyst who currently works for Crédit Agricole Securities USA. He has been a star attraction at half a dozen firms, is beloved by the media, followed by clients, and loathed⁶ by whatever institution happens to have earned his derision. This approach has cost him a succession of jobs, but it has not stopped him from having a successful career. There are many reasons for this. Mr Mayo hates being criticised, but has few reservations about criticising others. He has a deep belief in capitalism⁷, but holds many of its leading practitioners⁸ in contempt; J.P. Morgan's Jamie Dimon is almost alone in drawing praise. He writhes⁹ if he feels his employers are disloyal, yet shows little loyalty¹⁰ himself, seemingly always on the prowl for a better opportunity.

　　梅奥是位名气了得的金融分析师，现在就职于法国农信银行美国分行，他在工作过的六七家公司都是风云人物。媒体青睐他，客户追随他，不幸被其奚落的机构痛恨他。虽然出名的代价是工作换了一个又一个，但这仍无碍于他在事业上的成功。其原因有很多。梅奥讨厌别人批评自己，但他批评起别人来却毫不委婉；他对资本主义深信不疑，却对很多大资本家嗤之以鼻。摩根大通的Jamie Dimon几乎是唯一得到过他好评的人。他为员工是否对他忠心耿耿而纠结，自己却频频跳槽，似乎总在找机会另谋高就。

　　Such qualities are vital in a profession where objectivity is important and constantly tested. For the friendly analyst there are gourmet¹¹ meals, rides on private jets, subsidised nights at strip clubs and, with luck, a bigger slice of profits. By contrast, when in 1999 Mr Mayo issued a 1,000-page report, telling the industry he covered that the good times were over, the consequences were uncomfortable. The report made his reputation but cost him his job. In describing his struggles in the intervening years, he writes: “Large banks have enough clout¹² to beat the living daylights out of anybody who gets in the way—politicians, the press, or analysts like me.”

　　对于一份重视并且不断检验客观真实性的职业来说，梅奥身上体现出来的素养还真是不可或缺的。那些八面玲珑的分析师，吃有美味佳肴，行有私人飞机，去脱衣舞俱乐部快活有人给买单，运气好时还能获得一大笔分红。相比之下，当梅奥于1999年发表了一份长达1000页的报告，向金融界宣告好日子一去不复返的时候，他就没那么好的待遇了。这份报告为他赚到了名气，也让他丢掉了工作。在描述这几年的起起落落时，他写道：“谁要是跟大银行过不去—无论政客、记者还是我这样的分析师，对方随便活动一下就能让你吃不了兜着走。”

　　Markets can be equally unkind. Some of his best calls, notably¹³ a persistent¹⁴ scepticism about Citigroup, took years to be proved right. If he had run his own fund, Mr Mayo says, he would have made a lot of money over time, but “I probably would have folded several times as well.” Sometimes, notably in the case of Lehman Brothers, his view proved too optimistic.

　　金融市场表现得同样刻薄。梅奥曾作出过几次非常出色的判断，但这些判断的准确性在几年后才得到印证，其中最著名的例子要数他对花旗集团发出的质疑了。梅奥说，如果让他操盘自己的基金，他会赚到大把大把的钱，“但也有可能亏得血本无归。”有些时候，譬如在最为人熟知的雷曼兄弟破产一事上，他的观点就过于乐观了。

　　But why, overall, aren't the big financial firms, and the analysts who cover them, better at the job? Mr Mayo offers the usual reasons: corruption¹⁵, lousy disclosure, ridiculous compensation packages for incompetent¹⁶ managers who are overseen¹⁷ by incompetent regulators, conflicts of interests that are little short of rife¹⁸. All of this he illustrates¹⁹ with names and dates, a close-up view of venality²⁰ that, by itself, makes “Exile on Wall Street” a story worth reading. Since the financial crisis, Mr Mayo's 1999 report has become the conventional wisdom. To create another stir, he may need to become positive.

　　然而，不管怎么说，金融巨头和为他们代言的分析师们为何连本职工作都难以做好？梅奥给出了再平常不过的答案：腐败，内幕交易，付给无能的经理们毫无道理可言的报酬，同样无能的监管者，以及无处不在的利益冲突。梅奥在引述举证时将当事人的姓名和事件发生的具体日期都写进了书中，并以特写方式聚焦那些贪赃枉法的现象，凭这点，《流放华尔街》这本书就值得一读。自金融危机后，梅奥在1999年发布的报告已然成了一部宝书，如果想再次引起关注，他要多提一些建设性的意见才行。

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