经济学人437:加沙停火 没有赢家的战争

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　　加沙停火

　　A war without winners

　　没有赢家的战争

　　Sadly, the end of the fighting is unlikely to mark the beginning of the peace

　　很遗憾，战斗结束并不就意味着和平到来

　　THE chances are that the latest of more than half a dozen ceasefires inGazawill hold—at least for a month or so, while the sides talk. The pause may even guide the Gazans and the Israelis to a more lasting¹ accommodation. Yet the skies have fallen silent out of exhaustion² and the futility³ of fighting on, rather than because the conflict has reached a resolution. Barring an unlikely change of heart—on both sides—war will probably begin all over again, sooner or later.

　　加沙已经停火许多次了，在各方都在谈判时，最近的一次停火很可能维持下去，至少能维持一个月左右。这次停火也许能让加沙人和以色列人走向更持续的和解。然而，天空之所以静下来，不是因为冲突已经解决，而是因为大家精疲力竭，战斗徒劳无用。双方的心意都不大可能改变，战争很可能会再次开始，这是迟早的事。

　　More than 2,100 people have died in the tiny enclave, most of them civilians⁴ and many of them children. At least 230,000 of Gaza's 1.8m people have been displaced, says the UN. The likelihood that this war just sets up the next renders their suffering even more tragic⁵. Hospitals, schools and the main electricity plant may take years to rebuild, only to be smashed yet again. The sole glimmer⁶ is that this bleak⁷ picture may concentrate minds to seek the distant prospect⁸ of two states—Israeland Palestine—living side by side in peace (see article).

　　在加沙这块狭小的飞地上，已经有超过2100人丧生，大多数是平民，许多是还是孩子。联合国称，加沙180万居民中，至少有23万失去家园，背井离乡。战争再次爆发的可能，使他们原来就痛苦生活，变得更加悲惨。医院，学校，主要发电厂也许要花数年才能重建，而重建后又可能再次被毁。唯一的希望在于，这苍凉黯淡的图景，能让大家专注起来，寻求两个国家和平共处的遥远前景。

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　　No one has emerged from the battle stronger. On the Israeli side, Binyamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, says that he has clobbered⁹ Hamas, the hardline Islamists who run the strip, and won this latest round by stopping the firing of rockets atIsraeland by unearthing¹⁰ the cross-border tunnels intended to enable raiding parties to seize or murder Israelis.

　　没人从争斗中变强。就以色列而言，本雅明·内塔尼亚胡总理说他已痛击了哈马斯，阻止了他们朝以色列发射火箭，破坏了让哈马斯突击队能绑架和杀害以色列人的隧道，因此赢了这一轮。

　　If so, he has paid a heavy price. War has weakened an already slowing economy. He is under attack at home from even more hawkish¹¹ rivals within his coalition¹², who argue that he could have destroyed Hamas completely—though that would entail¹³ heavy casualties and a ruinous occupation, orGaza quite possibly falling into the hands of another Islamist group. Worse, each timeIsrael bombsGaza, its reputation ebbs¹⁴ in the rest of the world, where the media carry images of suffering children and smashed streets. EvenIsrael's vital American allies have shown rare irritation¹⁵.

　　如果真是这样，他的代价也不菲。战争削弱了本就不振的经济。内塔尼亚胡在国内备受抨击，甚至是他党内更加强硬的对手都在抨击他，批评他没有彻底消灭哈马斯，虽然要做到这一点必然得付出巨大伤亡，占领的也只是一片焦土，而且加沙很可能会落到另一个伊斯兰组织手中。更糟糕的是，每次以色列轰炸加沙，它的国家声誉就会严重受损，痛苦的孩子和破碎的街道的图片充斥在各大媒体。即使是以色列的铁杆盟友美国，也罕见的显示出不耐烦。

　　Meanwhile, Hamas is stuck up a cul-de-sac. It has claimed victory—because it is still standing¹⁶. And it is true that its grip onGaza, which was weakening before the fighting, still looks secure. But its main policy of sterile¹⁷ resistance toIsraelleads nowhere and comes at the expense of the lives and prosperity of ordinary Gazans. Palestinians should query¹⁸ the common sense, let alone the morality, of Hamas firing its fairly useless rockets randomly¹⁹ intoIsraelif the result is destruction forGazaon such a scale.

　　同时，哈马斯也被困在死巷当中。哈马斯声称已经获得了胜利—因为它依然存在。确实，哈马斯对加沙的控制看起来依然稳固，而在开战之前，哈马斯对加沙的控制力似乎是在减弱。但哈马斯坚决对抗以色列的主要政策没有前途，而且会以牺牲普通加沙人的生活和繁荣为代价。哈马斯胡乱朝以色列发射火箭，根本没什么用处，其后果是对加沙如此大规模的破坏，巴勒斯坦人应该问问，这么做究竟有没有常识，更不要说合不合乎道义。

　　Crumb²⁰ of comfort

　　些许安慰

　　Can anything good be salvaged²¹ from the rubble²²? This war has been bad even for the people who stayed out of it.Israel's moderates have not gained noticeably from Mr Netanyahu's travails²³. Mahmoud Abbas, leader of the more moderate Palestinians, is painted by his own people as an Israeli stooge, sapping his strength as a negotiating partner. But at least he still presides over a unity²⁴ government that is committed to peace and is still—remarkably enough—backed by Hamas. He could press Hamas to disarm²⁵ in exchange for a programme to rebuildGaza, with a neutral force overseeing the process. Or how about another crack at good-faith talks about two states? The ground has been dug over so often, including byAmericain the past, that progress could in theory be rapid.

　　能从瓦砾中挖出什么有用的东西吗？这场战争，即使是对置身事外的人而言，都已经够糟糕的了。以色列温和派没能从内塔尼亚胡的行动中得到什么。巴勒斯坦温和派领导人穆罕默德·阿巴斯，则被自己人说成是以色列的傀儡，削弱了他作为谈判人的实力。但是，至少，阿巴斯领导着一个致力于和平的联合政府，而且跟不可思议地拥有哈马斯的支持。阿巴斯可以对哈马斯施压，要他们放弃武力，以换取对加沙的重建计划，重建进程将由中立力量监督。或者，干脆再推动两国的诚意谈判怎么样？谈判的基础早就有了，而且之前也有过很多次努力，包括美国在过去所做的许多工作，理论上说，谈判进程可以进行得很快。

　　It is not the ideas of well-meaning outsiders that are lacking, but the readiness ofIsraeland Hamas to strive for peace. Sadly, even with a ceasefire, that prospect still looks very distant.

　　身在局外，但用意良好的人并不少，但以色列和哈马斯走向和平的意愿却不足。遗憾的是，即使实现了停火，和平的前景依旧渺茫。

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