经济学人444:德国和欧元 请依法办事

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　　德国和欧元

　　You Kant do that

　　请依法办事

　　Many Germans fear that the European Central Bank is not on their side

　　很多德国人担心欧洲央行不是他们这一阵营的

　　HORST SEEHOFER, premier¹ of Bavaria, sums up German attitudes to the European Central Bank (ECB). Based in Frankfurt, but run by Mario Draghi, an Italian, the ECB said on September 4th that it would cut its interest rate to 0.05% and start buying asset-backed securities from banks to get them to lend. By opening the money tap, taking on debt and buying “junk”, Mr Seehofer told Bild, Germany's biggest tabloid², the ECB frightens people. “It must be our job to criticise³ these policies.”

　　巴伐利亚州州长霍斯特·泽霍费尔向欧洲央行（ECB）表明了德国的态度。坐落于法兰克福，但如今却被意大利人马里奥·德拉基掌舵的ECB，在9月4日公开表示，将基准利率下调至0.05％并从放贷银行购买资产抵押债券。泽霍费尔向图片报透露，ECB借着开通资金流、承担债务和购入“低档债券”的方式来恐吓民众。他表示“我们的职责就是批评这些政策。”

　　德国和欧元.jpg

　　Like others on the centre-right, Mr Seehofer frets⁴ that a new anti-euro party, the Alternative for Germany, will poach voters by bashing the ECB. The Alternative has just got into its first state parliament and may get into two more on September 14th. But scepticism about the ECB is growing across the country. Hans-Werner Sinn, boss of Munich's Ifo Institute and an economist⁵, echoes Mr Seehofer: the ECB has “cut interest rates by too much”; and it is not authorised to buy bonds “as this is a fiscal⁶ and not a monetary-policy measure. Such a policy would be at the expense of European taxpayers⁷, who would have to pay for the losses incurred⁸ by the ECB.”

　　与其他中右翼党派一样，泽霍费尔同样忧心德国新选择党—一个新的反欧元党派—会借机抨击ECB来拉拢选民。而新选择党才刚刚成功进入第一个州议会，在9月14日新选项党还可能会成功进入另外两个。但是ECB质疑论正在这个城市大肆传播。慕尼黑经济研究所所长汉斯-维尔纳·辛恩也在泽霍费尔之后随声附和：ECB已经“降低基准利率太多”；而且ECB并未得到购买债券的授权，因为这并不是一个货币政策措施而是一个财政法令。而这样的一个政策将以欧洲的纳税人为代价，让他们不得不为ECB引起的损失买单。

　　Mainstream⁹ views in Germany are diverging¹⁰ from those elsewhere in the euro zone and in Anglo-Saxon countries. The world outside Germany is afraid of deflation. Germans, however, worry that cheap money could lead eventually to inflation. This may be surprising, since prices in the euro zone are rising by only 0.3% a year, far below the ECB's 2% target. But inflation fears have been etched into the German psyche¹¹ since the hyperinflation of 1922-23.

　　现今德国国内的主流观点便是与那些欧元区的其他国家和盎格鲁-撒克逊国家分道扬镳。除德国之外，全世界都惧怕通货紧缩。然而，德国人忧心的却是宽松货币政策最终可能引发通货膨胀。由于欧元区的价格一直在不断上涨，每年涨幅仅为0.3％，这相较于ECB2％的目标已经是很低了，在这种状况下，德国人的此种担忧让人颇感意外。但是自从经历过1922-1923年的恶性通货膨胀之后，德国人对通货膨胀的恐惧已经深入骨髓。

　　Many are cross that cheap money is crushing interest rates on savings¹² accounts and capital life-insurance policies, a common form of retirement¹³ planning. Real returns on such savings are laughable, just when greying Germans need them. Low rates may boost shares and property, but ordinary Germans shun¹⁴ such assets. One argument they use against low rates, indeed, is that they create asset bubbles.

　　也有许多人持相反的观点，他们认为宽松货币政策正压制储蓄账户和资本人寿保险政策的基准利率。这种储蓄的实际回报效果却让人觉得可笑，仅仅是在头发花白的德国人需要之时才会出现。低利率可能会刺激股票和房地产行业，但是普通的德国人还是会避开这两样资产。而实际上这些普通人用来反对低利率的一种说法便是，这样做会引起资产泡沫。

　　But the roots of German scepticism are more fundamental, argues Marcel Fratzscher, head of the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin, in a forthcoming book, “The Germany Illusion”. Anglo-Saxon economists¹⁵ are guided by the utilitarian¹⁶ philosophy of John Stuart Mill or Jeremy Bentham, asking merely if a policy works. Germans side with Immanuel Kant, believing that nothing works except through law, and are horrified¹⁷ when the ECB strays from its narrow mandate¹⁸.

　　但是，马塞尔·弗雷兹策尔—柏林德国经济研究所所长—在他即将出版的书《德国的幻象》中表示，德国质疑论的来源更加坚实。盎格鲁-撒克逊那群仅要求这政策能奏效的经济学家们，皆以约翰·斯图尔特·密尔或是杰里米·边沁的功利主义哲学为指南。那些拥护伊曼努尔·康德的德国人，坚信任何事情只有借以法律手段才能奏效，而且在ECB打破自身的局限颁布条令之时，他们也被震惊了。

　　Germans felt it was doing this in 2012 when Mr Draghi announced that the ECB would, under certain conditions, buy the bonds of euro countries in crisis. Outside Germany, this is considered the most effective step in the euro crisis to date. Inside Germany, it is seen as illegal. The ECB would indirectly¹⁹ finance governments when it may only manage the money supply, ruled the German constitutional court in February (though it referred the issue up to the European Court of Justice).

　　当德拉基宣布ECB会在某些情况下购买身处危机中的欧元区国家债券之时，德国人意识到ECB曾在2012年就这样做了。在德国之外，这种举措被认为是迄今为止在欧元危机之中最奏效的一步。而在德国国内，这种行为却被认为是违法的。当ECB仅能控制货币供应之时，它会间接的向政府融资，对此，德国宪法法院已在二月份作出裁决。

　　Buying asset-backed securities from banks is, by this logic²⁰, another step in the wrong direction. Worse, Germans fear that it could lead to “quantitative easing”: printing money to buy bonds. “Breaking the rules destroys trust,” warns Ralph Brinkhaus, a Bundestag member from the centre-right party of Chancellor²¹ Angela Merkel. And it sends the wrong message to crisis countries, he adds, by reducing the pressure on them to reform.

　　按照这种“德国认为是违法的”的逻辑，那么ECB从银行购买资产抵押债券也是在错误方向上的另外一步了。更糟的是，德国人害怕的是，ECB的这种做法会导致“量化宽松”：也就是印钞买债券。德国总理默克尔所属基督教民主联盟籍议员Ralph Brinkhaus 提出警告 “打破规则摧毁信任”。而且他补充道，这些做法通过减少改革的压力，给那些身处欧元危机中的国家发送了错误的信息。

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