经济学人448:移民政策 万事俱备但缺行动

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　　移民政策

　　Ready, steady, do nothing

　　万事俱备，但缺行动

　　Barack Obama defers¹ his promise to help out illegal immigrants

　　巴拉克·奥巴马在帮助非法移民走出困境一事上或有违背诺言之嫌

　　“TODAY, I'm beginning a new effort to fix as much of our immigration system as I can on my own, without Congress,” said Barack Obama in June. Lamenting² the refusal of Republicans in the House of Representatives to pass an immigration reform bill, he vowed³ to use his executive powers to “fix as much of our immigration system as we can”. He vowed to have a plan by the end of' the summer and to implement⁴ it “without further delay”. But on September 7th he admitted that he would not in fact do these things until after the mid-term elections in November.

　　“今天，我开始在没有国会干扰的情况下尽最大努力最大程度的改革我们的移民制度”奥巴马六月如是说。为共和党人在众议院拒绝通过移民改革法案惋惜之时，奥巴马发誓要动用他的行政权尽可能地修改他们的移民制度。他承诺在这个夏天制定修改计划并保证无任何进一步延迟地实施修改方案。然而，9月7日他承认除非九月的中期选举结束否则他根本无法做这些事。

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　　Some 11.3m immigrants—mostly Spanish-speaking—live illegally in America, according to the Pew Research Centre, a think-tank. That figure is roughly the same as it was when border controls started to tighten⁵ dramatically in 2006 or so. The main effect of making it harder to cross the border is that unlawful migrants no longer go back and forth⁶ as they used to. A decade ago, a typical migrant had lived in America for nearly eight years. Now the figure is almost 13 years.

　　根据皮尤调查中心这个智囊团的统计数据，美国大约有1130万非法移民，这其中大多数是讲西班牙语。这一数据与2006年前后高调地开始严格进行边境管制是的数据大致相同。严格惊醒边境管制的主要的效果是那些非法移民将不再像他们过去那样来回于两国。十年前，移民在美国居住将近8年，现如今这一数据是将近13年。

　　Only a fraction of those people will ever be sent home. Mass deportation⁷ would knock 1.5% off GDP each year and destroy 3.6m jobs in California alone, estimates Raúl Hinojosa-Ojeda of the University of California, Los Angeles. Mr Obama wants Congress to create a path for law-abiding, tax-paying migrants to become citizens. Since it won't, he has ordered the authorities to focus on deporting⁸ migrants who commit serious crimes.In 2012 he gave protection from deportation to around 1m people who had migrated illegally to America as children. A new executive order could extend that to parents.

　　仅仅只有一小部分的非法移民会被遣送回国。加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶分校的Raúl Hinojosa-Ojeda估计，将非法移民强制驱逐出境，仅就加州而言，将导致GDP每年下降15%，减少360万工作岗位。奥巴马希望国会为那些遵守法律、积极纳税的移民成为正式公民开辟一条通道。由于这一提议遭否决，他只能命令当局致力于将重罪犯驱逐出境。。2012年他让将近100万在孩童时期就非法移民美国的人免遭驱逐出境的惩罚。新的行政命令将会将该政策扩大覆盖面至父母亲。

　　Over the summer, however, thousands of Central American children surged across the border, creating an impression of chaos⁹ that Republican ads exploited. Vulnerable Democrats¹⁰ begged Mr Obama not to do anything that could be portrayed¹¹ as soft on border security. He has obliged.

　　然而，整个暑假成千上万的中美洲儿童偷渡渡过国界，上演了共和党人广告中描述的那种令人印象深刻的轰动效应。倍受攻击的民主党人恳求奥巴马不要再做任何事情以免造成自己在处理边界安全一事上立场软弱的处境。他已经答应这一请求。

　　Supporters of immigration reform chide¹² the president for breaking his promises. Many are also furious that he has deported¹³ more than 2m people since taking office. But some think he is being shrewd. If he tries to fix the system just before an election and Democrats lose, they may conclude that immigration reform is toxic¹⁴ and abandon it. Far better, some argue, to wait.

　　移民改革的支持者们斥责总统失信于民。有些人甚至对其上任后将200多万人驱逐出境甚为气愤。但是有些人则认为总统为人甚是精明。倘若他恰好在选举之前修改移民制度并且民主党在选举中失利，他们便可以下结论称移民制度改革是有害的并就此打住。另一些人则认为最好的方式就是什么也不做，干等。

　　Delay may not hurt Democrats much. Latinos are angry, but historically they have been less likely to vote in mid-term elections than whites. In 2010 just 31% of them turned out, against 49% of non-Hispanic whites. This year, Democrats are counting on the Hispanic vote to clinch¹⁵ victory in only one Senate race, in Colorado. And so the system remains¹⁶ broken.

　　拖延或许不会让民主党过于难堪。拉丁裔人都愤怒了，就历史经验而言，跟拜仁相比，他们不太可能参与中期选举。2011年他们中仅有30%的人投票，而非西班牙裔白人则达到49%。今年，科罗拉多的参议院竞选中，民主党人都寄希望于西班牙裔的选票以获得胜利。这样的话移民制度依然漏洞百出有待修订。

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