经济学人449:啤酒企业的兼并

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　　啤酒企业的兼并

　　Foamy⁵ war

　　弥漫着泡沫的战争

　　SABMiller may be swallowed up by its main rival, AB InBev

　　南非米勒也许会被其主要竞争对手—百威英博吞并

　　THE world's biggest brewer¹, AB InBev, is also the most frugal⁶. There are no company cars for senior executives. Carlos Brito, the boss, flies economy class. That is one reason why, with 18 of global beer sales, ABI has a third of the profits.

　　英博，全球最大的啤酒制造商，同时也是最节俭的一个。英博旗下的高管都没有公司配车。老板Carlos Brito平时出行都乘坐经济舱。之所以英博的啤酒销售额占全球的18，利润额却高达全球的三分之一，这就是原因之一。

　　啤酒企业兼并.jpg

　　This will matter in the wary⁷ manoeuvres now taking place among the giants of global brewing⁸. On September 14th Heineken, the number three by volume, said it had rejected a takeover proposal from SABMiller, the number two. SAB seems to have been trying to defend itself against a possible takeover by ABI, which was said to be talking to bankers about raising 75 billion to buy its rival. That was little more than a rumour⁹, but industry-watchers suspect something big is indeed brewing, in brewing. And the chances are that ever-thirsty ABI, maker¹⁰ of Budweiser and StellaArtois, will swallow SAB.

　　对于正施行谨慎策略的全球啤酒酿造业巨头，这点至关重要。9月14日，销量排行第三的喜力啤酒称其已拒绝了来自销量第二的南非米勒的一个收购案。南非米勒似乎一直在抵御被英博收购的可能，据说英博目前正与银行家们讨论提高750亿欧元以收购其竞争对手。这只是个谣言，但是业内观察人士猜测酿造业内正酝酿着大事件。百威啤酒与时代啤酒的制造商—一如既往十分饥渴的英博公司将有机会吞并南非米勒。

　　The beer behemoth has few other ways to grow. In rich countries, consumption of beer has stopped rising. In America, ABI's Anheuser-Busch division is suffering growing competition from small makers¹¹ of “craft beer”. The number of American breweries¹² has jumped from fewer than 100 in 1983 to more than 3,000 today. ABI has its roots in Brazil, but there drinkers are suffering from a sluggish¹³ economy and post-World Cup blues¹⁴. This leaves ABI with two options, says Andrew Holland, an analyst¹⁵ at Societe Generale: give its cash back to shareholders¹⁶ or buy something.

　　啤酒业巨头已无其他发展之路。在富裕国家，啤酒的消费量已止步不前。在美国，英博的Anheuser-Busch部门正面临着来着生产“精酿啤酒”的小型制造商日益激烈的竞争。美国啤酒厂的数量已从1983年的不到100家跳跃式增长到如今的3000多家。英博起源于巴西，但那里的啤酒消费者正遭受着经济疲软与世界杯后的萧条。Societe Generale的分析师Andrew Holland说：这使得英博有两个选择，要么把现金还给股东，要么买些什么。

　　SAB is a tempting¹⁷ target. Though based inLondon, its origins are inSouth Africa; it has breweries and bottling plants in 15 African countries, where people still mainly guzzle¹⁸ moonshine. It has stakes in 21 others through an alliance with Castel, a French drinks company. Nearly 70 of SAB's sales are in emerging markets, many of which are still developing a taste for beer. Last year its sales by volume expanded by 3. ABI's, in contrast, dropped 2.

　　南非米勒是个令人心动的目标。尽管总部在伦敦，但其起源于南非；其在15个非洲国家都拥有酿酒厂和装瓶工厂，这些国家的人们仍主要狂饮着私酿的威士忌。南非米勒通过与法国饮料公司Castel联盟，在其它21家公司也拥有股份。南非米勒近70的销售额来自新兴市场，其中许多地区的人们还正在逐渐养成饮用啤酒的嗜好。去年其啤酒销售量增长了3。相反，英博的销售量缩减了2。

　　If ABI gets hold of SAB it will no doubt try to repeat tricks that have worked well since AmBev of Brazil merged¹⁹ with Interbrew of Belgium a decade ago and then pushed out its American boss: squeeze costs and use the new acquisition as a platform to spread its brands. That was the formula after the merged group bought Anheuser-Busch, the maker of Budweiser, in 2008. Grupo Modelo, a Mexican brewer which makesCoronaand has been part of ABI since last year, is now undergoing the same rigours.

　　十年前，巴西AmBev啤酒集团并购了比利时Interbrew啤酒集团，而后解聘了其美国老板：压缩成本，并使用新收购的公司作为其传播品牌的平台。如果英博吞并了南非米勒，其无疑会试着故伎重演。自从合并后的集团收购了百威的制造商安海斯- 布希公司之后，这就成了定式。Corona的制造商—墨西哥啤酒集团Modelo去年也成为了英博的一部分，其如今正处于相同的窘境之中。

　　SAB would be a more difficult undertaking²⁰. For one thing, notes Mr Holland, it is more tightly managed than “fat and lazy” Anheuser-Busch was, so there is less scope for cutting costs. SAB is bigger and more complex than anything else ABI has taken on. A knack²¹ for cost-cutting may not serve it as well in fast-growing markets. Another problem is that in some countries the two giants' combined businesses would be too big. In America Anheuser-Busch and SAB's joint²² venture with Molson Coors, another rival, would together have three-quarters of the beer market. InChinathe two would have more than a third. These are not insurmountable problems. InAmerica, for example, the stake in the joint venture could be sold to Molson Coors.

　　南非米勒将会是一个更加困难的任务。Holland先生指出，首先，比起过去臃肿懒惰的安海斯- 布希公司，南非米勒管理更为严格，因此压低收购价格的范围更小。比起英博收购的其他公司，南非米勒要更大更复杂。压低收购价格的技巧对于快速增长型市场也许并不适用。另一个问题在于在有些国家，这两家巨头合并后的企业将过于庞大。在美国，安海斯- 布希公司以及南非米勒与 另一个竞争对手—莫尔森库尔斯的合资企业共同占据着3/4的啤酒市场。在中国，这两者的市场占有率超过1/3。但这些并不是无法克服的难题。例如在美国，南非米勒所持有的合资公司的股份可能会被出售给莫尔森库尔斯公司。

　　Despite the obstacles, a merger³ of the leading two beer companies looks the likeliest of the potential huge deals. Heineken, which is controlled by the Heineken family even though it owns just 23 of the company's equity²³, has now given notice that it does not want to be bought. Carlsberg, the smallest of the big four, is controlled by a foundation. So the parsimonious²⁴ Mr Brito may well get his hands on SAB if he wants it enough. Teaching Africans to like Budweiser, however, may prove somewhat harder.

　　尽管困难重重，这两大啤酒公司的合并看起来是潜在的巨额交易中最有可能达成的。喜力集团，其掌控者为仅拥有23的公司股权的喜力家族，目前发布公告表示不愿意被收购。四大巨头中最小的嘉士伯啤酒公司由一家基金会掌控。所以如果极度节俭的Brito先生真心想收购南非米勒，他很可能会得到它。然而，引导非洲人民喜爱上百威啤酒，也许就更有些难度了。

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