经济学人457:世界经济 比看起来更糟

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　　世界经济

　　Weaker than it looks

　　比看起来更糟

　　Growth is healthy in America and Britain. But most of the world economy is in trouble

　　美国和英国正在稳健增长，但世界其他经济体却麻烦不断。

　　FOR the American and British economies it has been a long road out of the woods, but the journey is nearing its end. America's unemployment rate fell below 6% in September. Britain's economy, where output was up 3.2% in the year to June, is growing faster than any other big rich country's. Central bankers are counting the days until they can raise interest rates.

　　对于美国和英国来说，它们的经济情况离高枕无忧还为时尚早，但至少已经看见希望。美国的失业率在9月份降到了6%一下。英国的经济产出到6月份增加了3.2%，是发达国家中增长的最快的一个。央行已经蠢蠢欲动准备加息了。

　　Virtually everywhere else, however, the news is grim and getting grimmer. The euro zone, the world's second-biggest economic area, seems to be falling from a feeble recovery back into outright¹ recession as Germany hits the skids². Shockingly weak industrial production and export figures mean Germany's GDP is likely to shrink for the second consecutive³ quarter—a popular definition of recession. Japan, the world's third-biggest economy, may also be on the edge of a downturn, because April's rise in the consumption tax is hurting spending more than expected. Russia's and Brazil's economies are stagnant⁴, at best. Even in China, still growing at a suspiciously smooth 7.5% a year, there are worries about a property bust⁵, a credit bubble and a fall in productivity.

　　但在世界其他地方，关于经济情况的新闻一个比一个糟糕。由于德国经济下滑，拖累欧元区这个世界第二大经济区从步履蹒跚的复苏直接退回到衰退之中。工业生产和出口数据出人意料的疲软，这就表明德国的GDP很可能会连续两个季度萎缩——而这是经济衰退的公认定义。日本是世界第三大经济体，也可能处于经济不景气的边缘，因为4月份上调消费税对于支出的抑制比想象的更严重。俄罗斯和巴西的经济，就算往好了说也是处于停滞的状态。中国仍然以7.5%的年增长率平稳发展，这个数据值得怀疑，即便如此，其房地产崩溃、信贷泡沫和生产率下降仍然令人担忧。

　　世界经济.jpg

　　Such a lopsided world economy is unlikely to be stable. Either the weakness outside the Anglo-Saxon world proves temporary, or it will spook financial markets and darken the outlook everywhere. The conventional view is that global growth will strengthen in 2015 as America's surge buoys⁶ other places, and as the recent weakness elsewhere proves temporary. The IMF reckons global growth will rise to 3.8% next year. This newspaper, however, is more worried on two counts. First, today's weakness, especially in the euro area, could last longer than investors⁷ expect; and second, the lopsided growth could itself fuel destabilising shifts, particularly in the dollar.

　　如此失衡的世界经济不可能继续保持稳定。要么西方世界以外的其他地区可以证明其经济疲软是暂时的，要么金融市场就会受到拖累，令世界各地的前景更加黯淡。传统观点认为，全球各地的经济将会受到美国的提振，在2015年得以巩固，而最近的疲软则是暂时的。国际货币基金组织（IMF）认为，明年的全球增长率将能达到3.8%。然而，本刊对两点表示担忧。第一，今天的疲软现状，尤其是在欧元区，持续时间会比投资者预期的要长；第二，失衡的经济增长本身也可能加速不稳定的转换，尤其是美元。

　　The euro area is in a far bigger mess than the headline figures suggest because its growth has long been flattered by Germany. Italy has been in recession for two years; France's economy has been stagnant for months. Now that Germany is in trouble, the chances of a Japan-style deflationary spiral have risen sharply. German policymakers remain pigheadedly opposed to the stimulus⁸ the euro area needs. Even as their own economy has stalled, they are determined⁹ to balance the budget in 2015. They want to force France to cut its deficit¹⁰, they show little interest in a euro-wide investment scheme, and their opposition¹¹ explains why the ECB is going so slowly with a bond-buying scheme to address deflation. The quantitative¹² easing that markets expect is months off, if it happens at all.

　　欧元区所处的困境比头条新闻显示的数据更加艰难，因为它的经济增长一直依赖于德国。意大利身陷经济衰退已经两年了；法国经济也连续数月处于停滞状态。现在德国也不行了，因此欧元区很有可能出现类似日本的螺旋式通货紧缩。德国的决策者仍然顽固地反对在欧元区实施刺激措施提振需求。即使德国自己的经济状况已经停滞，他们仍然决定要在2015年平衡预算。他们希望法国能缩减赤字，且对于欧洲范围内的投资计划缺乏兴趣，他们的反对解释了为什么欧洲央行通过购买国债来解决通货紧缩的计划一直进展缓慢。市场预期的量化宽松即便能执行的话，也要等数月之后。

　　The euro zone's prospects¹³ are grimmest, but other weaklings are also a long way off recovery. In Japan, for instance, the economy is due to get clobbered¹⁴ by another rise in the consumption tax in October 2015. And with commodity prices falling and China slowing, it is hard to see how other emerging economies will accelerate, even if America is growing.

　　欧元区的前景最为黯淡，但其他表现疲弱的经济体也远谈不上复苏。比如在日本，2015年10月将会第二次上调消费税，这很可能再次重挫经济。在物价下降、中国经济增速减缓的情况下，即便美国在增长也很难提振其他新兴经济体。

　　Optimists¹⁵ see the stronger dollar as a simple means to export America's recovery elsewhere; but that too is more complicated than it first looks. The greenback is certainly on the rise, fuelled by faster growth and the prospects of tighter monetary¹⁶ policy from the Fed. On a trade-weighted basis, it is up 6.3% since July, and is at a six-year high against the yen¹⁷ and two-year high against the euro.It looks likely to go higher: dollar surges tend to stretch over several years.

　　乐观主义者将强势美元视为有利于世界其他地方恢复对美国的出口，但这一点也比表面上更复杂。由于经济快速增长和美联储更为紧缩的货币政策，美元确实在走强。经过贸易加权计算，美国经济自从7月以来增长了6.3%，美元兑日元处于6年来的高位，兑欧元处于2年来的高位。而且看起来美元将在未来几年内还会继续走高。

　　This should be good news for the weaklings: their exporters will get more competitive, while pricier imports will ward¹⁸ off deflation. But it could also bring risks. Currencies have a tendency to overshoot. Firms and governments that have borrowed in dollars in recent years will have to pay more. Dollar borrowing by emerging-market firms has risen dramatically since 2008, to an estimated 70% of total bond issuance. And the temporary boost from a cheaper currency could provide the likes of France, Italy and Brazil (and increasingly Germany) yet another excuse to put off structural¹⁹ reform.

　　这对于疲弱的其他经济体应该是好消息：他们的出口会更有竞争力，同时高价的进口会避免通货紧缩。但这也伴随着风险。货币有失控的趋势，近年借了美元债务的公司和政府将不得不支付更多。新兴市场中借贷美元的公司自从2008年以来就越来越多，估计占债券保险总数的70%，更廉价的货币能暂时提振像法国、意大利和巴西（德国也有这样的趋势）等国家的经济，但也令他们有了推迟结构性改革的借口。

　　The prescription²⁰ for the weaklings is simple: heal thyself. Rather than waiting for America to solve their problems, the laggards²¹ should treat the recent spate²² of bad news as a wake-up call. The ECB should start bond-buying forthwith. The Japanese government should delay the rise in the consumption tax until the economy recovers. Countries that can afford it, notably²³ Germany, should invest in infrastructure²⁴. And even America and Britain should be wary²⁵, especially over tightening²⁶ monetary policy too quickly. There is a lot that can go wrong—and they don't want to be dragged back into those woods again.

　　给疲软经济体的良方很简单：自我医治。与其等待美国帮他们解决问题，他们应该将近年来一连串的坏消息视作警示。欧洲央行应该立即开始买债行动。日本政府应该等到经济复苏之后再提升消费税。实力尚存的国家，尤其是德国，应该投资基础设施建设。即使是美国和应该也应该小心谨慎，特别是不要过早紧缩货币政策。随时都有可能出岔子—他们可不想再重新回到经济衰退的悲惨境地。

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