经济学人175:阿富汗选举 有效的转折

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　　阿富汗选举

　　A useful crisis

　　有效的转折

　　A fudge between two feuding¹ presidential candidates may offer a political road map

　　两个长期不和的总统候选人相互挤兑，这或许能提供一个政治路线图

　　HOLDING a presidential election in Afghanistan only months before the withdrawal² of Western combat forces was bound to be risky—even before one of the candidates, Abdullah Abdullah, reacted to preliminary results showing a suspiciously big lead for his opponent, Ashraf Ghani, by alleging³ “industrial-scale” fraud. The political crisis could have plunged⁴ the country into chaos⁵ and even war.

　　于西方作战部队撤离前几个月在阿富汗举行总统选举注定是充满风险的。候选人之一的阿卜杜拉断言，对手阿什拉夫的支持率远远领先于他是可疑的，是“工业”欺诈。这场政治危机可能会使该国经济陷入混乱甚至战争。

　　Yet this dangerous moment could turn out to be oddly productive. Disaster has been averted⁶ thanks to the banging-together of heads by America's secretary of state, John Kerry, and to the good sense of the presidential candidates, who stared into the abyss and retreated. Their deal points towards a political structure that should work better than the current one.

　　然而，这一危险时刻可能会出奇地有效。由于美国国务卿约翰·克里的群策群力和陷入深渊和撤退时总统候选人们的理智，灾难得以避免。他们的策略指向更有效工作的政治结构。

　　Come on, it's Afghanistan

　　来吧，这就是阿富汗

　　阿富汗选举.jpg

　　In the first round of the election to replace Hamid Karzai as president, nearly 7m Afghans turned out to vote. But in the second, Dr Abdullah made no gain at all from the 45% of the vote he had secured in a crowded field; meanwhile, the share of his rival, Mr Ghani, leapt from 31% to 56%. Suspiciously, turnout increased by more than 1m votes. Mr Ghani has the backing of Mr Karzai, who stole the election from Dr Abdullah in 2009. This time Dr Abdullah's backers threatened to establish a breakaway government. That might lead to civil war.

　　在第一轮选举中，近700万阿富汗人支持替换哈米德·卡尔扎伊总统。但在第二轮中，阿卜杜拉并没有在他有把握的45%领域中获得选票，与此同时，他的竞争对手阿什拉夫的支持率从31%上升到56%。可疑的是，选票增加了100多万。卡尔扎伊是支持阿什拉夫的，他在2009年的选举中从阿卜杜拉手中窃取了选举的胜利。这一次阿卜杜拉的支持者们扬言要建立独立政府，这可能导致内战。

　　Barack Obama called Dr Abdullah and threatened to stop all American military and financial aid. Dr Abdullah backed down. In return, America has promised a full, internationally supervised audit⁷ of every vote cast. The inauguration⁸ of a new president has been postponed⁹ from August 2nd to the end of the month. In truth it is not at all clear how much fraud an audit will pick up. But both candidates have promised to accept the result, and that matters more than the actual tally¹⁰.

　　巴拉克?奥巴马同阿卜杜拉联系，威胁称美国将停止所有军事和经济援助。阿卜杜拉做退缩了。作为回报，美国已承诺对投票过程进行完全的国际监督审查。新总统的就职典礼已从8月2日推迟到这个月底，事实上，还不清楚在审查过程中会发现多少舞弊行为。但两位候选人都承诺接受结果，这比实际数字更重要。

　　As well as being a short-term fix, the deal holds out the promise of a solution to the structural¹¹ problems of Afghanistan's politics. Too much power resides in the office of the president. In 2004, when the constitution was ratified¹², extreme centralisation—for example, all provincial¹³ governors and police chiefs are appointed by the president—seemed the best way to hold the country together. Now it is pulling it apart. Political loyalties¹⁴ and social ties require local expression. But Mr Karzai's ability to bypass institutions by forming his own network of patronage¹⁵ has stunted¹⁶ the development of Afghan democracy and done nothing to cut corruption¹⁸. A bizarre voting system, crying out for reform, has prevented the formation of real political parties and resulted in a weak and fractious legislature.

　　作为一个短期的解决方案，该协议同时提供了解决阿富汗政治结构性问题的方法。总统办公室拥有太多的权力。2004年宪法生效时，极度的中央集权—例如所有省长和警察局长由总统任命—似乎是将整个国家团结在一起的最好方式。现在，中央集权却使国家分裂了。政治忠诚和社会关系需要地域表达。但卡尔扎伊绕过机构形成自己的资助网络，阻碍阿富汗民主的发展并且未能削弱腐败。一个奇怪的迫切需要改革的投票系统，阻碍了真正的政党形成，并形成了脆弱又难以控制的立法机构。

　　Under the deal brokered¹⁹ by Mr Kerry, there will be a government of national unity²⁰. The election-winner will be president, but the loser (or his nominee) will be “chief of the executive council”, a new position implying power-sharing. Then, after two years, there will be a loya jirga (a gathering²¹ of tribal²² elders, local power-brokers and elected officials) to approve constitutional changes that include the creation of the post of prime minister. He would rank below the president but have executive powers.

　　根据克里的谈判交易，将会成立一个民族团结的政府。选举获胜者将成为总统，但失败者(或其指定人)将作为执行委员会的主席,，新职位意味着分权。两年之后，将会有一个支尔格大会(部落长老们、地方政治掮客和民选官员们的聚会)来批准修改宪法，包括建立总理一职，该头衔低于总统但有行政权力。

　　Such a structure would better reflect the reality of a country that is ethnically²³ diverse, corrupt¹⁷, Byzantine and more comfortable with give and take than a winner-takes-all politics. It might also offer a route out of violence for those Taliban who are not implacable ideologues but feel shut out by the present system. If Afghanistan's leaders can make it work, they will be doing their country a huge service.

　　这样的结构可以更好地反映一个国家的现状—多民族的、腐败的、拜占庭式的、更适合平等交换而不是赢者通吃的政治。它还可能给那些觉得被现有制度拒之门外的塔利班们一条远离暴力的道路。如果阿富汗领导人能使之生效，它们将会为这个国家做出巨大贡献。

　　As so often happens in Afghanistan, everything could still go suddenly wrong. But Mr Kerry has helped ensure that a good crisis has not gone to waste.

　　这种事情在阿富汗时有发生，一切都仍有可能突然失败。但克里确保了这个良好的转折点还没有被浪费。

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