经济学人183:意大利政治 骑士归来

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　　意大利政治

　　The ex-Cavaliere is back on his horse

　　骑士归来

　　A favourable¹ court judgment² for the former prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, may help Matteo Renzi shake up Italy

　　对于前总理西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼让人信服的判决可能会帮助马泰奥·伦齐掌控意大利

　　FEW events in Italy's recent history have had a more crushing effect on morale³ than the wrecking⁴ of the Costa Concordia, an Italian-owned and skippered liner that capsized off the island of Giglio in January 2012. The giant vessel⁵ foundered⁶ with the loss of 32 lives as Italy, battered⁷ by years of economic stagnation⁸ even before the euro-zone crisis, seemed bound for default on its vast public debts. Silvio Berlusconi had just resigned as prime minister, internationally derided⁹ for his “Bunga Bunga” sex parties and relationship with a young Moroccan, Karima El-Mahroug. Confirmation¹⁰ that the Costa Concordia's captain, Francesco Schettino, had left the ship before completing its evacuation prompted a bout¹¹ of mortified¹² soul-searching.

　　在意大利近几年的历史上，很少有事件的轰动性能超过2012年1月意属豪华邮轮Costa Concordia 在吉廖岛附近触礁沉没的事故。这艘满载财富的邮轮同时也带走了32个意大利人的生命，由于多年来一直遭受经济停滞的影响，意大利在欧元区危机爆发之前就似乎已经开始拖欠巨额的债务。不过前总理西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼的事件显然是个例外，当时他已经辞去了总理一职，全世界都在嘲笑他荒诞的性爱聚会以及他和摩洛哥雏妓卡莉玛·艾尔·马罗格。可以确认的是，在邮轮完成疏散之前，船长已经提前逃离了邮轮，这一行为引起了人们对于人性的深刻反省。

　　The removal from Giglio on July 23rd of the refloated, if rusty¹³, hulk was thus more than a triumph of salvaging¹⁴ skill and technology: it eased a huge symbolic¹⁵ weight from the national psyche¹⁶. And it coincided with what Matteo Renzi, the newish prime minister, called “the start of a process of profound change”. On the same day,Italy's upper house began voting on amendments¹⁷ to a bill to reduce the senate from 315 members to 100 and fill it with lawmakers from municipal and regional government or presidential appointees rather than elected representatives. The reform will remove a big obstacle to effective government inItaly: the “coequal” powers of its upper and lower houses, which result in legislation frequently bouncing between chambers¹⁹. The proposed new senate will have drastically reduced legislative²⁰ powers.

　　对于吉廖岛附近沉船的转移从7月23日船只再度浮出水面时开始，如果一切顺利，这堆笨重的废铁就不仅仅象征着救灾技术的巨大成功：同时也让整个国家的精神如释重负。同时这也和新晋总理马泰奥·伦齐宣扬的“伟大变革的开始”保持一致。同一天，意大利上议院开始就关于将参议院315个席位减少到100个的提案进行投票，该提案还将在参议院中增加来自地方立法机构，政府或者是总统指定的一些人员，而不是像之前那样全部通过选举产生。这些改革将会为建立强而有效的意大利政府扫除很多障碍。而对于上下议院权力的平衡行为最常导致的结果就是议院之间关系的动荡。而新推行的一系列政策将彻底削弱立法机构的权力。

　　For some critics, particularly in the populist Five Star Movement, this is a lurch²¹ towards authoritarian²² government. Others complain the reform enhances the influence on national politics ofItaly's often corrupt²³ regional governments. Recent days have seen claims that the deputy governor of Lombardy gave a consultancy contract worth 16,000 a year to his chauffeur²⁴ and the arrest of a former governor of neighbouring Veneto, accused of taking millions for licences to build the barriers that will protect Venice from flooding.

　　对于一些评论家来说，这些改革意味着形势陡然转向独裁主义政府。其他人则抱怨这些举动可能会对国家政治中一直存在的地方政府贪污现象带来不好的影响。近期我们已经能看到不少负面报道了，诸如伦巴第大区的副总裁将一个年薪1.6万欧元的顾问职位交给了他的私人司机，还有对邻近的威尼托区前管理者的逮捕，罪名为擅自挪用了用于修建防洪设施的资金，且数额高达数百万之巨。

　　意大利政治.jpg

　　Some also argue that Mr Renzi should have secured a broader consensus²⁵ before submitting his bill to parliament. Around 7,850 amendments have been tabled in the senate alone. Maria Elena Boschi, the minister sponsoring the bill, claimed the amendments would “make us work an extra week and lose a bit of holiday”. But the reform has much further to go than the Costa Concordia. Ansa, a news agency, calculated that vetting²⁶ the senate amendments could take three months. Then the bill must go to the chamber¹⁸, and again to both houses. Another objection, surprisingly rarely heard inItaly, is that its legislators' time might be better spent on its still-moribund economy: last week, the Bank of Italy forecast GDP growth of just 0.2% for this year.

　　同时还有部分人主张伦齐应该在将修正案提交之前获得更多的支持。现在已经有大约7850个修正案提交到了参议院。参议院官员玛利亚·艾琳娜·博施在支持这些议案的同时表示“这将会让我们额外多工作一周时间并且失去一些假期。”但是相比对Costa Concordia 邮轮的施救行动而言，改革需要更多的时间来完成。新闻机构Ansa表示整个改革将用掉大约3个月的时间。这些提案必须先移交到内阁，接着再次回到上下议院进行讨论。另一种令人震惊且稀有的反对言论表示，意大利立法机构应该更着重于奄奄一息的经济状况—上周，意大利国家银行的报表预测今年的国内生产总值仅有0.2%的增长率。

　　The proposed reform is the fruit of a pact²⁷ in January between Mr Renzi and Mr Berlusconi, who still leads the second-biggest party in the senate. The bill's prospects²⁸ of approval were greatly enhanced when, on June 18th, a court inMilanupheld the media tycoon's appeal against his convictions for allegedly paying for underage sex with Ms El-Mahroug and misusing²⁹ his authority to try to conceal³⁰ their relationship. Seen through the eyes of Mr Berlusconi and his supporters, who regard the judges as puppets of the left, the successful appeal showed Mr Renzi was honouring his side of a bargain implicit³¹ in the January deal.

　　这些提出的改革措施实际上是1月份伦齐与贝卢斯科尼之间协议的过时。即便麻烦缠身，贝卢斯科尼依然领导着参议院中第二大的政党。在6月18日，米兰法庭表达了对广大媒体团关于贝卢斯科尼指控的上诉后，这些提案通过的几率大大增加。在贝卢斯科尼和他的支持者看来，这些判决无疑是受左翼政党控制的，而这次成功的上诉则是伦齐在极力维持他在一月份与贝卢斯科尼之间达成的协议。

　　Mr Berlusconi had been sentenced to a year in prison on the vice³² charge, and six for abusing his position. That he was acquitted³³ of the first charge was unsurprising: even some of his critics thought the evidence was inconclusive. But although many felt his sentence on the other charge was excessive, few expected an acquittal. It is widely accepted that the then prime minister telephoned police inMilanto get Ms El-Mahroug released after she was detained, suspected of theft. The former prime minister's lawyer said the verdict went beyond his “rosiest expectations”. Mr Berlusconi was “deeply moved” and even praised the “vast majority of judges”.

　　贝卢斯科尼因为不道德的行为被判处一年监禁，因滥用职权被判6年。一点也不让人惊讶，他的首要指控被宣布无罪，即便是一些批判他的人也认为那些所谓的证据是模棱两可的。但是，尽管所有人都觉得对于他其它罪行的判决有点过于严厉，但是几乎没有人希望他能无罪释放。众所周知，在那位雏妓因为偷窃而被米兰警方拘留时，贝卢斯科尼曾致电当地警局要求释放该女子。前总理的律师表示，陪审团的裁决已经超乎了他最“美好的期盼”，贝卢斯科尼也被“深深感动了”甚至还赞扬了“大部分公正的法官。”

　　The court has yet to give its reasons, but the way it framed its ruling suggested it had no option but to clear Mr Berlusconi of the misuse³⁴ of authority charge. In 2012, barely noticed by the public and scarcely reported in the media, Mario Monti's government, which succeeded Mr Berlusconi's, abolished the offence for which the former prime minister had been indicted³⁵. In its place, two new ones were created, together with a gap between them into which, Mr Berlusconi's lawyers argued, his conduct fell. As some commentators³⁶ now recall, Mr Monti's government relied for survival on the support of Mr Berlusconi's followers³⁷.

　　法院还未给出了自己的理由，但是它的裁决表明了它除了能洗清贝卢斯科尼渎职的罪名之外并有其他的能力。2012年，很少有公众和媒体注意到马里奥·蒙蒂的政府成功掩护贝卢斯科尼销毁了法院对他的两项指控。所以现在一些评论者回想起来认为蒙蒂的政府是要依靠贝卢斯科尼的党羽们才能苟延残喘。

　　The 77-year-old Mr Berlusconi cannot run for public office again because of another conviction for tax fraud, which also led to his being stripped of his knighthood. And the prosecutors³⁸ in the ‘Ruby' case are likely to seek a final ruling from the supreme³⁹ court, which could yet decide that the former prime minister is guilty of one or other offence. But the decision of the Milancourt has nevertheless given Mr Berlusconi renewed influence over the fortunes of Italy. As Il Messaggero, a Rome daily, put it, l'ex Cavaliere rimonta a cavallo, the ex-knight is back on his horse.

　　不过77岁的贝卢斯科尼依然不能正式回归政治，因为他同时还因为一些税务问题遭到指控，这同时也剥夺了他的“骑士身份”。同时，“粉红事件”的公诉人有可能转而向最高法院寻求最终判决，因为最高法院依然裁定前总理因为一个或更多的原因有罪。不过，无论如何米兰法院的判决都帮助贝卢斯科尼再次赢得了对意大利未来的影响力。就如一份罗马日报—Il Messaggero 表达的那样:骑士马前复出，落魄骑士再度归来。

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