经济学人207:波兰政府 继图斯克之后

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　　波兰政府

　　After Tusk¹

　　继图斯克之后

　　Donald Tusk's replacement² has a chance to revive his party

　　唐纳德·图斯克的接班人有机会复兴他的政党

　　THE choice of Donald Tusk, Poland's long-serving prime minister, as the next president of the European Council is rearranging Polish politics. He will be replaced by Ewa Kopacz, Speaker of the parliament. Ms Kopacz has two weeks to assemble a new cabinet and gain the approval of parliament, which should be easy. She has the opportunity for a “velvet cabinet reshuffle”, says Wojciech Szacki of Polityka Insight, a political-analysis firm. That gives her the chance to reverse the misfortunes of Civic³ Platform that have left the party lagging behind the right-wing Law and Justice party, led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski.

　　长期担任波兰总理的唐纳德·图斯克选择担任下届欧洲理事会主席，而这一举动是要重新整理波兰政治。总理一职将由国会发言人埃娃·科帕奇接任。科帕奇有两周时间重组新内阁并获得议会批准，这对她而言并非难事。她有机会“重新梳理内阁的丝路”，政治分析公司政策观察的Wojciech Szacki如是说。公民纲领党一直被雅罗斯瓦夫·卡钦斯基领导的右翼法律与公正党甩在后面，而这次重组内阁使得科帕奇有机会反转这个霉运。

　　波兰.jpg

　　Civic Platform has appeared listless for months. It was rocked by the recent “waitergate” scandal, in which several senior ministers were illegally recorded in Warsaw restaurants and their indiscretions splashed in the newspapers. The halo of Mr Tusk's new job has already given Civic Platform a boost: one poll found it leaping by ten points to overtake Law and Justice, for the first time in a while.

　　公民纲领党这几个月一直处于倦怠期。最近“服务员门”的丑闻震撼了整个党派。在这个丑闻中，数名高级部长在华沙餐厅被非法录音，而他们的言行也随即在报刊上曝光。图斯克的新工作带来的光环已经推动了公民纲领党的发展：一项民意调查显示公民纲领党的支持率一跃领先法律与公正党10个百分点，这是这段时间来公民纲领党的首次领先。

　　The government has big gaps to fill. Mr Tusk will be joined in Brussels by his capable deputy, Elzbieta Bienkowska. After doing an excellent job of disbursing⁴ the billions of euros Poland gets from the European Union, she is to become European commissioner⁵ for the internal market. There is no obvious candidate to take over from her. There could be change at the foreign ministry⁶, which Radek Sikorski has headed since 2007. He is said to be in the running for Speaker of parliament, but changing a well-regarded foreign minister in the middle of the Ukraine crisis may not seem wise. More certain to go is Bartlomiej Sienkiewicz, the interior minister, whose dinner-table talk made such lurid⁷ reading.

　　波兰政府还要补很多课。图斯克将通过他的得力助手Elzbieta Bienkowska加入布鲁塞尔。在出色地完成了支付波兰从欧盟得到的数十亿欧元这一工作之后，Elzbieta Bienkowska即将成为欧洲内部市场专员。对于她的接班人，并没有明显的人选可以接替她。而拉德克·斯考斯基自2007年开始领导的外交部可能会出现变动。据说他会担任国会发言人，但在乌克兰危机时期更换一名广受好评的外交部长似乎并非明智之举。内务部长Bartlomiej Sienkiewicz在餐桌上的交谈为这一爆炸性消息更增添了可信度。

　　Ms Kopacz will have to hold Civic Platform together in the absence of Mr Tusk, who was one of its founders⁸ and has used a blend of charisma⁹ and ruthlessness to keep rivals in check. The party has several barons¹⁰ and there are ideological¹¹ splits between conservatives and liberals. Ms Kopacz lacks Mr Tusk's charm, but she was an effective health minister, a job that is often a graveyard¹² for ambitious politicians.

　　图斯克是公民纲领党的创办人之一，并且曾靠自己的魅力与冷静来压制竞争对手，如今科帕奇将在没有图斯克的情况下将公民纲领党团结起来。党内有几个大佬，并且保守派与自由派在党内有政见分歧。科帕奇缺乏图斯克的魅力，但是她曾是一个极具效率的卫生部长，这个职位经常被视作政治家雄心壮志的政客的养老院。

　　She also has at least one momentary¹³ advantage. Mr Kaczynski was caught flat-footed by Mr Tusk's promotion¹⁴, seeming uncertain whether to congratulate him or denigrate¹⁵ his achievement. With a hand-kissing old-world approach to women, he has tended to be clumsy in attacking female rivals. Civic Platform's new hope is that it may win November's local elections. Next spring's presidential vote is a forgone¹⁶ conclusion, with the Civic Platform incumbent¹⁷, Bronislaw Komorowski, likely to romp¹⁸ home. That gives Ms Kopacz just over a year to shore up her party before she tries for an unprecedented¹⁹ third general election victory.

　　她至少有一个短暂的优势。卡钦斯基对图斯克的晋升感到措手不及，似乎不确定是要恭喜他还是贬低他的成就。对于女性卡钦斯基就像古代行吻手礼的绅士，这使他在攻击女性对手时显得尤为笨拙。公民纲领党最新的愿望是可以赢得11月份的地方选举。明年春天总统选举因为对于公民纲领党的现任领导人布罗尼斯瓦夫·科莫洛夫斯基来说犹如探囊取物，因而毫无悬念。这使科帕奇在她为前所未有的第三次大选胜利努力前只有一年多的时间来巩固她的党派。

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