经济学人249:美国下任国防部长 量身定做

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　　美国下任国防部长

　　Fit for purpose

　　量身定做

　　Ashton Carter is well-qualified to lead the Pentagon, if he is allowed to

　　阿什顿·卡特完全够格统领五角大楼，前提是他通过提名

　　More hawkish¹ than Hagel

　　比哈格尔更有鹰派味道

　　ASHTON CARTER once urged the pre-emptive bombing of North Korea's nuclear facilities. (It was in an article he wrote in 2006, while out of office.) He also wanted American troops to stay on in Iraq after 2011. Yet Barack Obama, who is hardly known for his hawkishness², appears poised³ to name him as defence secretary.

　　阿什顿·卡特曾主张先发制人轰炸朝鲜的核设施（该主张曾写入他2006年下台时所写文章中），他还曾希望美国军队2011年后继续留在伊拉克。但是，布拉克·奥巴马几乎对卡特的鹰派作风不知就里，似乎准备提名他为下任国防部长。

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　　He would replace Chuck Hagel, a decorated veteran with a profound aversion to the ill-considered use of force. Mr Hagel, a Republican, was inarticulate, flummoxed by detail and floundered in the job, particularly when faced with the complex challenge of taking on the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Relentless⁴ micromanagement from the White House made things worse.

　　他将取代查克·哈格尔（一位充满荣誉的老兵，相当厌恶妄动军事力量）。尤其是在面对伊拉克和叙利亚伊斯兰政权复杂多变的局势时，身为共和党议员的哈格尔先生，词不达意、为细节所困、工作状态糟糕。白宫的“微管理”，毫不留情，让局势越演越烈。

　　Insiders praise Mr Carter's competence⁵ and experience. A physicist⁶ by training, he was deputy defence secretary under Leon Panetta, responsible for controlling a $600 billion annual budget. Such was his indispensability that Mr Obama asked him to continue in the job for a year after Mr Panetta left in 2013, to help Mr Hagel—an uncomfortable period for both men.

　　圈内人赞赏卡特先生的能力与经历。他曾是一名受过训练的物理学家，曾在时任国防部长里昂·帕内塔手下任美国国防部常务副部长，全权负责6000亿美元年度预算。而这一点恰恰成为奥巴马先生—在2013年帕内塔先生离职后—要求其继续工作一年的必要条件，来辅佐哈格尔先生（那一年对二人来说都难熬的一年）。

　　Before that, Mr Carter was the head of acquisitions, restructuring the bloated Joint⁷ Strike Fighter (JSF) programme and cancelling costly⁸ under-performing or outdated⁹ programmes. Soldiers in the field called him “the Deliverer”, for his ability to cut through the Pentagon's copious¹⁰ red tape and get urgently-needed kit¹¹ to the front line, such as MRAPs (mine-resistant ambush-protected vehicles) to shield troops from roadside bombs.

　　在此之前，卡特先生曾负责掌管国防部的科教和采购工作，重组臃肿的联合打击战斗机（JSF）计划，取消昂贵的表现不佳或者过时的计划。在作战的士兵称他为“投递员”，因为他能穿越五角大楼的繁文缛节，给前线送去急需的装备，比如能保护军队免受来自路边的炸弹的防地雷反伏击车（MRAPs）。

　　In Bill Clinton's first administration, Mr Carter was in charge of America's vast nuclear arsenal¹² and led the effort to dismantle¹³ and remove more than 8,000 nuclear weapons from states that had been part of the old Soviet¹⁴ Union. He also helped build security relationships with countries in eastern Europe that paved the way for them to join NATO.

　　卡特先生曾在比尔·克林顿第一任期内负责庞大的核武器库，移除属前苏联时期的逾8000件核武器。他还协助与东欧国家建立安全关系，进而为其进入北大西洋公约组织（NATO）而铺平道路。

　　Although some complain that Mr Carter's intellectual self-confidence and command of the most esoteric technical details can make him appear arrogant¹⁵ or aloof¹⁶, his confirmation¹⁷ hearings on Capitol Hill should be much easier than the grilling¹⁸ Mr Hagel received. Both Mac Thornberry and John McCain, the Republicans who are about to take the helms of the House and Senate Armed Services Committees, are likely to see Mr Carter as an ally in reforming the Pentagon's sclerotic procurement¹⁹ practices. Mr McCain, an arch-foe of wasteful²⁰ defence spending, often clashed with Mr Carter over the JSF; yet he developed a grudging²¹ respect for him. Kori Schake, a former Bush administration security official now at the Hoover Institution, a think-tank, describes Mr Carter as “able, intelligent, effective and energetic”.

　　尽管如此，有人抱怨道：卡特先生聪明过人、自信满满，深谙科技奥秘，故他看上去傲慢冷漠；但是他在国会的审议听证会应该会比哈格尔先生面对的“拷问”要轻松得多。即将接管众议院以及参议院武装服务协会共和党议员麦克·索恩伯里和约翰·麦凯恩，二人—就改革五角大楼僵硬的采购计划—视卡特先生如盟友。麦凯恩先生，强烈反对高额的国防经费，常常与卡特先生就联合打击战斗机（JSF）计划意见不合；现在他勉强尊重卡特先生。前布什政府安全官员科瑞·斯卡克，现属一家名为胡佛研究中心的智库，形容卡特先生“能干、聪明、高效、活力”。

　　Mr Carter will need all those qualities and more if he is to make his mark over the next two years. He will want to forge a deal with Congress to bring more stability to the defence budget and undo²² some of the cuts mandated²³ under sequestration. Since the world looks scarier now than it did a year or two ago, the military budget ought perhaps to grow a bit. However, Todd Harrison of the Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments²⁴ in Washington reckons that the political compromises needed for a long-term fix are unlikely.

　　卡特先生若想在接下来的两年内声名大噪，他需要具备上述所有的品质。他将需要和国会达成一项协议，即促使国防预算趋于平缓；取消一些扣押下的托管削减费用。相比一两年前，世界越发可怕，军事预算本应该有所涨幅。但华盛顿战略与预算评估中心的托德·哈里森认为长期的政治妥协是不可能的。

　　Mr Carter will also attempt to persuade Mr Obama and his ever-meddling team of advisers²⁵ that some new thinking is needed to deal with the situation in Iraq and Syria. In particular, Mr Obama's habit of deliberately²⁶ constraining²⁷ military options (for example, by ruling out the use of combat troops on the ground or, as in Afghanistan, setting timetables unrelated to conditions) makes the task of any defence secretary immeasurably harder.

　　卡特先生也将试图游说奥巴马先生和他的干预团队—咨询者们，一些新的想法需要注入，协商伊拉克与叙利亚的局势。尤其是，奥巴马先生的习惯—故意限制军队的选择权（比如，排除地面作战部队或者在阿富汗制定与时局无关的时间计划表）—使得任何一位国防部长寸步难行。

　　For all his knowledge and experience of strategic issues, however, Mr Carter may still find himself excluded from real influence. Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution, a think-tank, says that when the decision was made to get rid of Mr Hagel, Mr Obama and his team on the National Security Council wanted someone personally close to the president who had worked his or her way up through their own ranks. To get a hearing from this inner circle, says Mr O'Hanlon, Mr Carter will have to decide “how much china he's prepared to break and how many political risks he's prepared to take”.

　　卡特先生，虽拥有与战略问题相关的知识储备以及阅历，但他会发现自己依然无法施展真正的影响力。来自一家名为布鲁斯金研究院的智库的迈克尔·奥汉隆，表明奥巴马先生以及其国家安全委员会（NSC）团队决定摆脱哈格尔先生，意图是想选一位—与总统个人很亲近的、通过自己的努力往上爬的—替代者。奥汉隆先生补充道，要想打入（奥巴马国家安全决策）“小圈子”，卡特先生将必须决定“要破坏美中关系至何种程度，以及准备涉足多少政治风险”。

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