经济学人471:英国和他的移民们 打开大门

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　　英国和他的移民们

　　Keep open the gates

　　打开大门

　　The Conservatives should not risk Britain's future prosperity on a flawed bid to cut immigration

　　保守党不应该将英国未来的繁荣错误的投注在削减移民上。

　　WHEN David Cameron declared his intention last year to hold a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union, this newspaper gave a cautious cheer. Although we felt there was a risk the Conservative prime minister was bending too far to the Eurosceptics in his party, who happily ignore the enormous economic cost Britain would incur² by leaving the union, the issue had become so divisive that we believed Britons should get a say on the subject. We were also encouraged that Mr Cameron made a rousing case for Britain's EU membership, which he vowed³ to fortify⁴ and improve by campaigning for badly needed EU-wide reforms ahead of the promised vote. He needs to restate that commitment, because the recent talk from Number 10 about curbing⁵ immigration from the EU risks giving the opposite impression: of a weak and unprincipled ruling party that is prepared to gamble Britain's national interest on a policy shaped by populists.

　　当去年戴维卡梅伦宣布英国加入欧盟的公民全投意图时，本表发表了谨慎的乐观态度。虽然我们觉得仍然有风险，在党内保守党首相还不算是欧洲怀疑论者，他愉快地忽视了英国脱离联邦会导致的巨大经济成本，这个问题已经意见不一，我们认为英国人对于这件事应该得到一个说法。我们也鼓励卡梅伦先生对英国的欧盟成员国做了一个激动人心的示范，他发誓要在承诺的投票前以竞选的方式加强和改进迫切需要的欧盟改革。他需要重申此承诺，因为最近来自10号关于控制移民以及欧盟风险的话题产生了反面印象：一个弱势的，没有原则的执政党准备把英国的国家利益押注在民粹主义形成的政策上。

　　英国和他的移民们.jpg

　　Britain's contradictory⁶ feelings towards immigration reflect the peculiarities⁷ of its history. On the one hand, the country's success is rooted in openness—in exploration, conquest and trade. Most Britons are not racist⁸, which makes their country especially appealing to the millions of immigrants who have created much of its wealth. On the other hand, Britain is a bristling⁹ island nation, with a deep-seated fear of invasion. Its people worry inordinately¹⁰ about the economic and cultural side-effects of immigration—and are prone¹¹ to scaremongers, a role which the increasingly formidable UK Independence Party (UKIP) is now filling. Its two main causes are leaving the European Union and reducing immigration.

　　英国对移民矛盾感情反映了其历史特点。一方面，这个国家的成功的基石是开放，探索，征服和贸易。大多数英国人都不是种族主义者，这让他们的国家特别吸引数以百万为英国创造巨大财富的移民。另一方面，英国是一个岛国，对入侵有着根深蒂固的恐惧。人们极其担心那些移民在经济和文化反面的副作用并且很容易受到蛊惑。日益强大的英国独立党现在正填充。这就是将要离开欧盟和减少移民的两个主要原因。

　　Mr Cameron has lost one by-election to UKIP and faces the prospect¹² of losing another in a few weeks and seeing his base eroded¹³ in a general election next spring, so it is hardly surprising that he has moved to the right. But the jump has been large and rapid. Last year, when he unveiled his EU reform strategy, Mr Cameron did not mention immigration as an area of concern. His target was red tape, not the liberal migration¹ regime that is one of the union's main strengths. Since then the Tories have said they want to restrict benefits to immigrants and make citizens from future EU member countries wait longer before they are allowed to work in Britain. Now Mr Cameron is talking about “fixing” immigration to Britain from the EU, while his advisers¹⁴ have floated the idea of an “emergency brake” on immigration beyond a certain level from even existing EU members. All will be revealed in a speech soon.

　　卡梅伦先生已经失去了一个通过选举来的英国独立党，在接下来的几周可能会失去另一个，他的根基在明年春季大选也逐渐在被侵蚀，因此他转移到右派是不足为奇的。但这是一次大规模、快速的跳跃。去年，当他揭开了欧盟的改革策略面纱时，卡梅伦先生没有提到移民这一个令人关注的领域。他的目标就是官僚主义，而不是作为工会主要优势之一的自由迁移制度。自那时以来，保守党表示，他们希望限制移民利益，让来自未来欧盟成员国家的公民等待更长的时间才被允许在英国工作。现在卡梅伦先生在欧盟提到“固定”英国移民，而他的顾问们对远远超出规定数量的移民提出了一个“紧急制动”的主意，甚至针对现有欧盟成员。这都将在不久的一次演讲中揭开谜底。

　　An emergency brake would be foolish in two ways. First, it is unlikely to succeed in its primary aim—fixing UKIP. A few voters may be tempted¹⁵ back to the Tory fold, but UKIP will always be able to outgun its rivals on promises to keep out foreigners. And most of the fears about immigration are a proxy¹⁶ for wider, especially economic, disgruntlements—as differences in attitudes between different bits of the country suggest. London, the city most changed by immigration, is generally relaxed about it, while several of the areas most determined¹⁷ to keep out immigrants, such as north-east England, have hardly seen any. An emergency brake will not assuage¹⁸ the anxiety in such places even if Mr Cameron could introduce it, which he probably cannot.

　　紧急刹车是愚蠢的行为，具体表现在两个方面。首先，对它的首要目标是不可能成功的—固定英国独立党。一些选民可能会回到保守党阵营，但英国独立党总是能够在承诺赶出外国人方面击败竞争对手。大多数移民带来的恐惧是广泛的，特别是经济和不同国家之间的差异态度等方面的不满。伦敦，移民改变了这座城市，一般情况下的政策是宽松的，而一些最坚定的赶走移民的地区，如英格兰东北部，几乎没有看到任何移民。紧急刹车不会减轻这些地方的焦虑，即使卡梅伦先生介绍，也不可能。

　　This is the second problem with his tactic¹⁹. Free movement of labour is one of the EU's four core freedoms. There is vanishingly little chance that other member states will concede it. And if Mr Cameron promises British voters concessions²⁰ he cannot deliver, he risks not just exacerbating²¹ anti-EU feeling, but also cornering himself into a position from which he has to campaign for withdrawal²² from the union.

　　这是他策略的第二个问题。劳动力的自由流动是欧盟的四大核心自由之一。是其他的成员国无法比拟的。如果卡梅伦先生承诺英国选民作出让步，但他不能实现，不仅加剧了反欧盟的感觉，也威胁到了他自己的地位，他就不得不从欧盟退出竞选。

　　Mr Cameron started with an admirable reform agenda, which would help the whole EU. If he makes demands that will never be met he will set that agenda up for failure—and also raise the chances that vexed²³ Britons will end up voting to leave the EU. That is a high price to pay for a few UKIP votes.

　　卡梅伦先生最开始提出的是一个令人钦佩的将有助于整个欧盟的改革议程。但如果他提出的是将永远不会被满足的要求，这个议程最终会因他以失败告终，并且加大英国人最终会投票离开欧盟的机会。这是为了几个英国独立党选票的高的代价。

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