经济学人269:无将之军 谁能堪当奥巴马领袖之重任?

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　　莱克星顿

　　An army without generals

　　无将之军

　　If Barack Obama is not really the leader of the Democratic Party, who is?

　　如果奥巴马不是民主党真正的领袖，那么谁是？

　　THOUGH leading the Republican Party can be a trying task, many politicians want to have a go. Ambition swirls¹ so thickly in the halls of the 114th Congress, which was sworn in on January 6th, that it can almost be touched. Republican leaders, whips and committee chairmen, even the bosses of rebellious² factions³: all yearn⁴ to use their party's newly won control of the Senate and House of Representatives to make Barack Obama's life miserable⁵ and promote voter-pleasing conservative policies. As for the 2016 presidential nomination⁶, around a dozen Republican bigwigs are circling the starting-line of that contest, eyes agleam. The party is fractious, but it is filled with energy, and those who would lead.

　　虽说领导共和党是个尝试性的任务，但许多政客都想要参与其中。114届国会于1月6日宣誓就职，在这届的国会大厅内，野心的漩涡异常浓厚，仿佛伸手可触。共和党领袖、政党纪律委员、委员会主席，甚至是反叛派的头，都渴望利用自己党派赢得新的竞选从而控制参众两院，好让奥巴马的日子难过并推进选民欢迎的保守性政策。至于2016总统候选人提名，约十几位共和党内的大人物已经站在了起跑线上跃跃欲试，眼睛里闪烁着光芒。共和党是急躁的，但它满是能量，也满是野心上位的人。

　　无将之军.jpg

　　The contrast with the Democratic Party is striking. The party remains⁷ a potent⁸ force in national politics, even after 2014's mid-term elections cost it control of the Senate and left it with fewer House members than at any time since 1946. But as Democrats⁹ head into the final two years of the Obama era, they resemble an army without a commander-in-chief, or even generals whom footsoldiers might follow into battle.

　　民主党则与其形成了鲜明对比。即使在2014年中期选举后民主党失去了参议院控制权，且其众议院席位降至1946年以来最低，但民主党在国家政治中仍有强大力量。但随着民主党的领导进入了奥巴马时代的最后两年，它就像一支没有司令的军队，甚至没有将军能带领补兵上战场。

　　In Congress the Democratic leaders of the Senate and House are both in their 70s, as are many of their lieutenants¹⁰. Both are crafty¹¹ tacticians more than inspiring thinkers. Neither represents the future. Out in the country, Republicans can point to any number of governors who look like conservative champions, busy turning their states into laboratories for tax-cutting, government-shrinking experiments. Only a handful of Democratic governors similarly dominate their states' politics—the most prominent, Jerry Brown of California, is 76 years old.

　　国会中，参众两院的民主党领导人都已70多岁，身边助手成群。他们都是狡猾的战术家而非启蒙思想家。他们都无法代表未来。在国内，共和党可以找出许多看起来像保守党领袖的州长，他们忙着把自己的州变成减税及政府缩减试验的试验区。只有极少数民主党州长在州内做同样的事情—最突出的就是加利福尼亚州76岁的州长杰瑞·布朗。

　　Hillary Clinton will dominate her party's presidential primary if and when she says she is running. At the moment, she is a spectral¹² presence—freezing the 2016 contest without offering leadership. If she does not run, it is not obvious who could replace her. Some like to daydream¹³ about Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Wall Street-bashing populist who is to the left of centre in her home state, Massachusetts, which is in turn to the left of centre of America as a whole. Ms Warren says she is not running for president (she favours the present tense), which makes her more sensible than her supporters: as a matter of cold electoral maths, she cannot win a nationwide contest.

　　如果希拉里·克林顿表明要参与党内总统初选，那么她将主宰竞选。目前，她是一种幽灵式的存在—没提供领导能力就定格了2016的竞选。如果她不参与竞选，没人知道谁能取代她。有人幻想会是参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦（Elizabeth Warren）。她是抨击华尔街的民粹主义者，立场属于中间偏左，她的家乡马萨诸塞州正整体向中间偏左转变。沃伦说她并未参加总统竞选（她喜欢用现在时时态），这使她比她的支持者更加明智：根据糟糕的选举数据，她不可能赢得全国范围内的竞选。

　　President Obama's relations with the Democratic Party are increasingly complicated. After a wretched 2014, during which he seemed buffeted¹⁴ by events, Republicans successfully made the mid-term elections a referendum on his competence¹⁵, prompting Democrats in some conservative states to try to disown him (in vain—most such Democrats lost anyway). Since then, Mr Obama has defied predictions of his imminent¹⁶ irrelevance¹⁷. He has used his executive powers to shield millions of migrants from deportation¹⁸, and started to dismantle¹⁹ the (remarkably ineffective) embargo²⁰ against Cuba. He has sketched²¹ out future policies that may define his legacy²², from new rules to protect the environment to global trade pacts²³. Republicans will try to thwart²⁴ many of his plans. Global events continue to menace him. But as much as his office permits, Mr Obama is setting the agenda.

　　总统奥巴马与民主党的关系日益复杂。在他被事件冲击的悲惨的2014过去后，共和党成功地把中期选举办成了对他能力的公民投票，推动一些保守州内民主党人对他的否定（这不过是徒劳，因为多数民主党人已经失去了席位）。此后，奥巴马蔑视关于他即将下台的预言。他利用自己的行政权力保护了数百万移民免受驱逐，并废除了对古巴明显无效的禁运政策。他勾勒出未来的政策趋势，从新环境保护规定到全球贸易协定，这些政策有可能成为他史册留名的资本。共和党人试图阻止他的多项计划。全球大事件继续威胁着他。但奥巴马正在自己的权限范围内，力定大局。。

　　Yet if Mr Obama is not quite the lame-duck president that critics foresaw, he is still a lame-duck leader of the Democratic Party. Partly, this is a question of differing incentives²⁵. Mr Obama wants a legacy. Democrats have future elections to win. As Mr Obama conceded to National Public Radio recently, such policies as unpicking the Cuban embargo are “frankly…easier” for a president at the end of his term. Mr Obama has a strong interest in achievements that can pass a Republican-held Congress. Two planned trade pacts, one with Asia-Pacific countries, the other with Europe, are a case in point. Republicans and some centrist Democrats want a deal. Left-wing Democrats and unions are appalled²⁶.

　　然而，即使奥巴马没有像评论家预测的那样成为跛脚鸭，他在民主党内的情况也将如此。部分来说，这是一个关于不同动机的问题。奥巴马想实测留名。民主党人想要赢得未来的选举。正如奥巴马近来在国家公共广播电台上承认的那样：坦白的说，像“解除古巴禁运”这样的政策，对一个任职末期的总统来说要容易得多。奥巴马很希望这项政策能在共和党控制的国会上通过。与亚太国家和欧洲国家的两项计划中的贸易协定就是个很好的例子。共和党与部分中间派民主党想要达成协议。左翼民主党和工会对此大为震惊。

　　In part, the end of the Obama era is a moment of political clarity, exposing the oddly transactional nature of his ties to his own party. Mr Obama did not become the Democrats' champion by explaining what sort of party they needed to be. He won office in 2008 by offering a new, post-racial, post-partisan form of politics, buttressed²⁷ by the promise of his own life-story and brilliant electoral technology. He kept office in 2012 by turning out an “Obama coalition” that united the young, the poor, non-whites, gays, urban hipsters, unmarried women and affluent²⁸ liberals. Other Democratic politicians went along for the ride, while grumbling²⁹ that their president was disappointingly aloof³⁰ and risk-averse.

　　在某种程度上，奥巴马时代的结束，是政治透明的标志时刻，也暴露出奥巴马与自己党派间古怪的交易本质。奥巴马不是通过解释他们需要成为什么类型的政党这一问题，而变成民主党领袖。2008年，他提出一个新的、超越种族的、超越党派的政治形式，以他个人人生经历和闪耀的选举技能为支撑，赢得了竞选。2012年，他创建了“奥巴马联盟”，联合了青年、穷人、非白种人、同性恋者、城市嬉皮士、未婚女性以及富裕的自由主义者，他借此得以连任。其他的民主党政客当时只是去凑凑热闹，抱怨奥巴马的冷漠和对风险的规避令人失望。

　　Breaches³² of decorum

　　失礼

　　Relations between Mr Obama and congressional Democrats are sourer than ever. In an unusual breach³¹ of decorum, the strains of the 2014 election prompted on-the-record grouching about the White House from a right-hand man to Harry³³ Reid, the Democratic leader in the Senate. A December budget crunch³⁴ saw Nancy Pelosi, the Democrats' boss in the House, fulminate against her own president's willingness to cut deals with Republicans.

　　奥巴马与国会民主党人之间的关系比以往任何时候都糟糕。2014选举的负担，催生出对白宫从得力助手到参议院民主党领袖哈利·瑞德的明面上的抱怨，这是极不寻常的失礼。众议院民主党领袖南希·佩洛西经历了12月预算的缩减后，严厉谴责总统个人想要削减与共和党的交易的意愿。

　　Greybeards counsel calm. Presidents inevitably³⁵ see their clout³⁶ ebb³⁷ as successors' elections near, says Tom Daschle, who led Senate Democrats from 1995 to 2005. If Mrs Clinton runs for the nomination, she will become an alternative centre of power which will grow in importance. If she does not run, “there is a list of people waiting in the wings”, Mr Daschle soothes³⁸, offering as examples two very different senators: Ms Warren and Kirsten Gillibrand (the junior senator from New York and a politician of Clinton-level pragmatism, without the Clintons' experience).

　　资深人士建议对此保持平静。1995至2005年参议院民主党领袖汤姆·达施勒说，随着继任选举的临近，总统不可避免的会看到自己影响力的衰弱。如果希拉里·克林顿参与提名，她将替代奥巴马成为愈发重要的权力中心。如果她不参与竞选，“还有一串名单上的人在伺机而动”。达施勒举了两个完全不同的参议员—沃伦和克尔斯滕·吉利布兰德—作为例子，如此的安慰道。

　　Other Democrats are less sure, seeing a problem that goes beyond personnel issues. “It is a little confusing who is leading the Democratic Party right now,” says a member of Congress who hears nothing “galvanising” from Mr Obama, and “no energy, no excitement”, from congressional bosses. Put another way, Democrats feel leaderless because the party lacks big, compelling ideas. Someone may yet fill that void. It needs to happen soon.

　　其他民主党人看到了超越人事范围的问题，并对此不太确定。一名国会议员说：“现在究竟是谁在领导民主党，这个问题让人有些困惑。”该议员表示，从奥巴马那里听不到任何激励，从国会领袖那里也听不到任何充满能量、让人兴奋的话语。另一方面，民主党人觉得没有领导者是因为民主党缺乏宏伟的、引人注目的计划。或许有人将要填补这个空白。需要尽快采取行动。

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