经济学人275:西班牙与加泰罗尼亚 马斯观察

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　　西班牙与加泰罗尼亚

　　Mas observation

　　马斯观察

　　Catalonia calls an election, but it will be only one of many in Spain this year

　　加泰罗尼亚要举行大选，这只是西班牙众多选举之一。

　　Mas waves the independence flag

　　马斯挥舞着独立的旗帜

　　CATALAN independence, if it ever happens, has been pushed back at least seven months after the region's president, Artur Mas, decided¹ not to call a snap election but to opt² instead for September 27th. The election is still being promoted as a plebiscite on independence, but not in the way Mr Mas once hoped. His original plan for a single list uniting all the separatist parties has been dropped at the insistence³ of his rivals from the Catalan Republican Left (ERC). In last-minute horse-trading, he accepted that ERC would stand separately from his own Convergence and Union (CiU) coalition⁴, in exchange for its support for this year's budget, which his minority government could not pass alone.

　　加泰罗尼亚的独立运动即便要发生也要推迟到七个月之后，也就是说，该地区主席阿图尔·马斯决定不举行临时选举，而是9月27日举行大选之后进行。这场大选虽然被视作一场独立公民投票，但还是与马斯最初所设想的有所出入。他原本想要团结所有分裂主义党派的计划被他的对手加泰罗尼亚左翼共和党（ERC）的坚持而夭折。在最后的讨价还价中，他接受了ERC将与他自己的聚合暨同盟（CiU）分庭抗礼的建议，用以换取它对今年财政预算的援助，否则他自己的少数党政府可熬不过这一关。

　　西班牙与加泰罗尼亚.jpg

　　That has turned the September poll into one as much about winning power as about independence, with ERC well-placed to oust⁵ CiU as the most popular party. The timing⁶ is both good and bad for the separatists. It comes just two weeks after Catalonia's national day, on September 11th, which campaigners have turned into a mass event in recent years. But they would still have preferred a February vote, before Catalans are distracted by a flurry of polls right across Spain.

　　随着ERC成功的将CiU取而代之成为最受欢迎党派，9月的投票也变成了决定独立成功与否的众多投票之一。这个时机对分裂主义来讲喜忧参半。这场投票紧跟在9月11日加泰罗尼亚国庆日两周后举行，那时竞选者们还未从国庆日这一近年来的大事件中抽身。但是他们还是希望投票在2月举行，那时加泰罗尼亚人还没被西班牙一系列投票搅得心烦意乱。

　　Elections in most other regions and municipalities will be held in May. They will test the staying power of the new upstart left-wing party, Podemos (“We Can”), which leads in several opinion polls, and its local party allies in various one-off groupings. One interesting battle will be in the Catalan capital, Barcelona, where Podemos backs a group called Guanyem (“We Win”). The Barcelona election, with several parties likely to win seats, will be an example of the fractured new politics of Catalonia and Spain: sometimes three parties may be needed for a majority.

　　其它大多数是地区和自治市的选举将在5月举行。他们将试探一下新崛起的左翼政党Podemos（“我能”）的忍耐力。这个政党在数次民意测验领先，并且它的地方组织来源多样。而最有意思的一场对决将在加泰罗尼亚的首府巴塞罗那展开，在那里Podemos将支持Guanyem（“我赢”）的组织。在巴塞罗那选举中，有几个政党有希望能赢得席位，这将是加泰罗尼亚和西班牙的政治隔绝的又一事例：有时候，三党并立恰恰是多数人所愿。

　　Catalonia's independence movement faces further internal spats⁷. Mr Mas and the ERC leader, Oriol Junqueras, want to agree on a common road-map to independence. Mr Junqueras will push for it to be hard-hitting. But some of Mr Mas's allies within CiU want it weakened. If not, the coalition's junior partner, the Democratic Union of Catalonia, may split from Mr Mas's own Catalan Democratic Convergence. And the slim majority for independence found in some polls may go with it.

　　加泰罗尼亚的独立运动面临着进一步的内部争端。马斯河ERC领导人奥尼奥尔·杨克拉斯想要在独立的大致路线图上达成一致。杨克拉斯想要采取强硬手段来推行。但是马斯在CiU的一些同盟想采取温和手段。如果不能达成一致的话，那么联盟的新伙伴加泰罗尼亚民主联盟或许会同马斯的加泰罗尼亚民主聚合党分裂。并且经过一些投票显示独立运动以微弱优势倒向民主联盟。

　　Spain's prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, is hoping that economic recovery, with growth outstripping⁸ most of the rest of Europe, will create enough jobs and goodwill⁹ to stop the independence bandwagon. His Popular Party (PP) is also readying itself for a bruising¹⁰ confrontation¹¹ with Podemos in cities and regions like Madrid and Valencia in May. A big Podemos march in Madrid on January 31st will be a demonstration¹² of the new party's muscle.

　　西班牙总理马里亚诺·拉霍伊希望经济增长超过欧洲大部分国家，由于经济复苏可以带来更多工作机会，这将有望遏制独立趋势的蔓延。他的人民党（PP）也已做好准备与 Podemos于5月在诸如马德里和巴伦西亚这样的城市和地区进行激烈对抗。 Podemos将于1月31日在马德里举行一场大游行，这也将是这个新党派实力的展示。

　　The party has its sights firmly set on the general election due in late November, which its leader, Pablo Iglesias, portrays¹³ as a battle between Podemos and the PP. Spain's mainstream¹⁴ Socialists¹⁵, he hopes, will go the way of Greece's ailing¹⁶ Pasok. Mr Iglesias is duly campaigning for the Syriza party in Greece's election. But Podemos also seeks to dilute¹⁷ Catalan separatism by offering an alternative outlet¹⁸ for those frustrated¹⁹ with Mr Rajoy. And unlike Mr Rajoy, who refuses ever to contemplate²⁰ an independence referendum, Podemos says the issue should be put to a vote.

　　这个政党将目光牢牢锁定在去年11月的大选上。党派领导人巴勃罗·伊格莱西亚斯将之描述成Podemos 和 PP之间的斗争。他希望西班牙的主流社会党将步上希腊的泛希腊社会主义运动党状况不佳的后尘。伊格莱西亚斯准备正式参加Syriza党在希腊的竞选。但是Podemos为了缓解加泰罗尼亚的分裂主义，也想要通过为拒绝考虑设立独立公投的拉霍伊所面临的困境施以援手，Podemos称这个问题应该通过投票解决。

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