经济学人:巴勒斯坦和西方外援 这援助会取消不?

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　　巴勒斯坦和西方外援

　　Will it be cut off?

　　这援助会取消不？

　　The Israelis ponder their next move in the wake of Palestinian reconciliation¹

　　随着巴勒斯坦人内部的和解，以色列正权衡他们自己的下一步行动

　　FEW Arab towns collect rubbish as smoothly² as Bethlehem. No sooner have the merchants lowered their shutters³ at the end of the day than the dustmen under the command of Iyad abu Rudeineh are primed to enter its tangle⁴ of restored old alleys⁵. Much of this success, he admits, is due to an American road-building project that has eased access. Yet in the wake of a recent reconciliation agreement between Palestine's two main rival parties, the secular⁶ Fatah and the Islamist Hamas, he fears that American support may cease. For the United States and many Arab and European countries deem Hamas a terror group. They are prepared to support the Palestinian Authority (PA) run by Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah (pictured), but not if Hamas is involved. By the time the pope visits Bethlehem on May 25th, he may find the streets strewn with rubbish.

　　很少有阿拉伯城镇会像伯利恒（耶稣降生地）那样平净地回收垃圾。繁忙的一天快结束了，商人们刚想拉下百叶窗打烊，受命于Iyad abu Rudeineh的清洁工人们就会涌进一条条充满活力却混乱的小巷。他认为这种成功归功于美国的道路修建计划，这计划大大消除了道路压力。然而随着近日巴勒斯坦的两个最大竞争党世俗主义的法塔赫与伊斯兰教的哈马斯和解声明公布，他担忧美国将会停止对以支援。究其原因则是美国和许多阿拉伯、欧洲国家将哈马斯视为恐怖组织。他们做好了支持由Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah所领导的巴勒斯坦民族权力机构（又称巴勒斯坦自治政府）的准备，但前提是哈马斯没有牵扯其中。在教皇于五月二十五日访问伯利恒之时，可能他会发现那里遍地垃圾。

　　巴勒斯坦和西方外援.jpg

　　The risks are real. Barely two years have passed since America ended its most recent boycott⁷ of Bethlehem. That lasted seven years, after its townspeople had elected representatives from two factions⁸ designated by America as terror groups to its council. Mr Abu Rudeineh worries that the billboards⁹ recently erected¹⁰ hailing the accomplishments¹¹ of America's aid arm, USAID, could soon look out of date. Palestinian officials say USAID officials cancelled meetings, albeit¹² apologetically, the day after Hamas and Fatah announced their agreement. Congress, the American officials explained, would not let them “finance terror”. Whereas the agreement offers Gazans the prospect¹³ that their seaside enclave, run by Hamas, may no longer be boxed in by Israel and Egypt, Mr Abbas's fief in the West Bank, inland, could end up paying the price.

　　这并非耸人听闻。距美国结束最近一次抵制伯利恒的活动这才仅仅过去两年。那场抵制运动持续了七年，就在那里的人民从两个被美国认定为恐怖组织的派别中选举出了议会代表之后。Abu Rudeineh先生担心最近树立起的一批称赞美国援助的成就的公告牌，比如美国国际开发署，会很快就过期。

　　But America has not yet cut ties as a result of the deal. The day that USAID officials cancelled the meeting, the World Bank awarded 13m for wastewater projects and America's secretary of state, John Kerry, hosted a banquet for businessmen to drum up cash for a scheme for investment in Palestine. On the same day, says a senior Palestinian, Barack Obama talked to Mr Abbas for half an hour on the telephone. While new projects may be put on hold, American officials say old ones may continue. A music festival backed by USAID in Jericho, in the Jordan valley, for instance, went ahead.

　　不过美国人尚未打算切断这种关系作为交易结果。美国国际开发署官员取消会议的当天，世界银行将总额为一千三百万美元的奖金发给了一个废水处理项目和美国国务卿约翰克里，并让他筹办一次宴会为在巴勒斯坦的投资计划向商人筹集现金。同日，一名巴勒斯坦资深人士声称奥巴马与阿巴斯在电话中谈了半小时之久。在诸多新项目可能会推迟的情况下，美国官员称以前的项目可能会继续进行。例如，一个在约旦谷的Jericho举行的、由美国国际开发署赞助的音乐节将会继续。

　　Israel's government says it wants the West to show “moral clarity” by cutting support for any Palestinian government backed by Hamas, a group that has been responsible for killing¹⁴ more than 1,000 Israelis, many of them civilian¹⁵.

　　以色列政府想要西方通过切断所有针对哈马斯支持的巴勒斯坦政府的援助来展现他们道义分明。这个哈马斯组织应对屠杀一千多名以色列平民负责，其中多数都是手无寸铁的平民。

　　America's Congress may concur¹⁶ with the Israelis, and cut funds to the Palestinians in response to the Fatah-Hamas deal. But other American officials see a possible benefit if Hamas comes to accept the notion of a two-state settlement with Israel. These Americans argue that Hamas's dire¹⁷ straits in Gaza may enable Mr Abbas to secure an advantageous¹⁸ deal for himself, paving the way for his return to power there. And they fear that past boycotts¹⁹ of Hamas may have deprived Western countries of influence in Gaza and helped the Islamists to tighten²⁰ their grip there. In any case, says one, it would be good if Europeans and Arabs were to make up the shortfall in aid to the Palestinians, should Congress prompt the American administration to pull out.

　　美国国会有可能会与以色列达成一致，以切断对巴勒斯坦的资金援助作为对法塔赫-哈马斯协定的回应。话虽如此，另外有一些美国官员认为，假如哈马斯接受了与以色列的双边和解理念，其中潜在的利益将不可小觑。这两派持不同意见的美国人争论的焦点在于，哈马斯在加沙地带的残暴行径可能会促使阿巴斯先生为他自己争取到一个非常有优势的筹码，而此筹码将直接为他的重新掌权而铺平道路。此外，他们还担忧过去针对哈马斯的抵制行动可能会令西方国家丧失在加沙的影响力，进而使以色列加紧了在当地的支配力。无论如何，假如欧洲人与阿拉伯人能够把对巴勒斯坦的援助补上的话将是极好的，因为这样美国国会就会促使其政府将行政机构撤出当地。

　　So far the Israeli government's response has been more bark than bite. In response to the Fatah-Hamas deal, Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, declared that he was suspending negotiations²¹ with Mr Abbas and stopping the transfer of customs revenues which comprise two-thirds of Mr Abbas's PA budget. But he did so only after first allowing the monthly transfer to proceed, nervous lest the PA might collapse²² without it, thereby²³ stoking general mayhem in the West Bank. Israel, it has been noted²⁴, has itself bargained with Hamas in the past, arranging repeated ceasefires with it since 2004.

　　目前来看，以色列政府的反应看起来强硬其实为了掩盖其柔软的内心。在对法塔赫-哈马斯协定的回应中，以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡宣称他正推迟与阿巴斯的谈判，同时停止占阿巴斯的巴勒斯坦民族权力机构支出三分之二的关税收入的转移。然而由于他唯恐巴勒斯坦民族权力机构没了它就会土崩瓦解，所以仅仅是在首次允许每月一次的转移进行之后才这样做，所以才会在约旦河西岸地区煽动骚乱。至于以色列，早已注意到了这点，他们已经与哈马斯博弈了很久，自从2004年以来就在不停地商议停火事宜。

　　Some Israelis think that they have something to gain by having Hamas on board. “Political accommodation between the two major Palestinian factions offers Israel the assurance that its negotiating partner has the political legitimacy²⁵, even if not the full backing, of the Palestinian people,” says Yonatan Touval of Mitvim, a liberal foreign-policy think-tank in Tel Aviv. Before cutting aid for good, Mr Netanyahu may wait to see who exactly will be in the Palestinians' unity²⁶ government and what its programme will be—indeed, whether it will happen at all.

　　一些以色列人认为，拉拢哈马斯会获得相当可观的利益。“巴勒斯坦两大主要派别的政治和解确保了以色列的政治合作伙伴具有合法性和正统性，即使这并非为所有巴勒斯坦人所支持。”一位身处特拉维夫市、名为Yonatan Touval of Mitvim的自由主义外交政策研究者如是说。在切断援助之前，内塔尼亚胡可能会先观察一下组建巴联合政府的都有谁，还有就是这个新组建的联合政府究竟会打什么算盘——确实是这样，不管这一切是否会发生。

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