英国退欧影响英欧经济前景

　　The gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the 19-country eurozone is expected to slow to between 1.3 and 1.5 percent in 2016 from the previously⁴ estimated 1.7 percent in May. The same growth figures are expected for next year.

　　This implies a loss of GDP of 0.25 to 0.5 percent by 2017, which is less than in the UK (1.0 to 2.75 percent), said a report published by the European Commission, the bloc's executive arm. "The UK's 'leave' vote is expected to slow private consumption and investment and impact on foreign trade," it noted⁵.

　　EU says Brexit vote to worsen UK, EU economic outlook

　　The report warned that the UK's referendum had created an "extraordinarily⁶ uncertain situation," which is likely to prevail for some time, and would affect not only the UK but also the rest of the EU economy through several transmission channels, mainly uncertainty, investment, trade, and migration⁷.

　　The increased uncertainty in the UK and other member states was expected to hamper⁸ investment decisions either by delaying them or by taking them off the table, at least until the uncertainty diminishes.

　　While the bloc is struggling to fight the almost double-digit unemployment rate, unfortunately, the Brexit vote is predicted to slow the ongoing⁹ labor¹⁰ market recovery as increased risk aversion and subdued¹¹ domestic demand would have a negative impact on firms' hiring decisions.

　　Inflation is another major concern for the bloc, which is keen to hit a target of around 2.0 percent. The conclusion of the report is welcoming though as it suggested that the Brexit vote's impact on inflation in the single currency zone would be "only marginal."

　　Moreover, the vote has increased or even created political risks which, if they were to materialize, could massively alter the forecast. However, such risks are extremely difficult to quantify, the report said.

　　Overall, the UK's "leave" vote has increased risks to the outlook with downside risks strongly dominating, it added.

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