经济学人:贸易战争:谁是最后的赢家(2)

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　　Since America buys far more from China than vice² versa, America has more scope to impose tariffs³. 由于美国从中国进口的商品比出口中国的商品多，那么美国可对中国强制征税的商品范围就更大。

　　This imbalance, long discussed in theoretical terms, is close to becoming a hard reality. 这种在理论术语中久经讨论的不平衡就快变成一种严酷的现实。

　　Mr. Trump⁴ has instructed his trade team to consider 25% tariffs on $200bn of Chinese imports as early as September, 早在9月的时候，特朗普就指示他的贸易团队考虑对中国价值两千亿美元的商品征收25%的关税，

　　taking the total affected⁵ by its tariffs to about $250bn, with room for twice that amount. 受关税影响的商品总价值约为2500亿美元，还有翻倍增长的空间。

　　China's threatened retaliation⁶, announced on August 3rd, will be tariffs on $60bn of American imports. 8月3日，中国宣布要进行报复，将对美国价值600亿美元的商品征收关税。

　　This would take the total under its tariffs to $110bn, with little room for more. 根据其关税规定，总价值可达1100亿美元，可增长空间微乎其微。

　　China has other weapons at its disposal. It can disrupt the lucrative⁷ Chinese operations of American businesses, from Apple to Starbucks. 中国还有其他武器可以使用。它可以干扰在中国赚钱的美国企业，比如苹果和星巴克。

　　But that would have downsides. 但是这样的做法也有缺点。

　　Declaring bogus justifications⁸ (health violations⁹, say) would reinforce foreign criticism of government meddling¹¹ in China's economy. 伪造的理由（比如违反健康条例）将会强化国外对于中国政府干预经济的批判。

　　And the nature of such interference, unlike tariffs, is that it will not be announced in advance, meaning it can take longer to register the impact. 不同于关税，这种干预的本质在于政府不会提前宣布进行干预，这意味着其影响的生效需要更长的时间。

　　The timing¹² of the trade war is most inconvenient¹³ for China. 对中国而言，这场贸易战的时机最为不利。

　　Over the past two years the government has waged a campaign to rein¹⁰ in debt levels. 在过去两年中，政府已经开始着手约束债务水平。

　　Finally this has started to bite, with credit growth slowing sharply. 最终，由于信贷增长骤减，该做法开始产生严重的后果。

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