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Explainer: Why Spain's Election is So Open

时间:2019-04-27 18:33:42

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Spain will hold national elections on Sunday. It will be the country’s third such election in four years.

The Reuters news agency says the results of the vote are likely too close to call. At least five political parties have a chance to be in the next government.

The general elections are set to mark a few firsts in Spanish politics. It appears clear that the elections will lead to a coalition1 government. Since it returned to democracy in the 1970s, Spain has yet to be ruled by a coalition.

Also, opinion studies are showing that far-right politicians could be elected in the country for the first time since 1982.

Reuters predicts there will be long coalition negotiations2 after the voting ends Sunday night. Results are expected within a few hours.

Here is what is important to know:

Who will win?

No party will win enough seats to form a government on its own. Opinion surveys appear to show that the parliament will be fragmented.

One such poll was released on Monday just before the two debates between the leaders of four of the five main parties. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialist3 party was found to be in the lead. He will most likely win just under 30 percent of votes. That information comes from a poll published in the newspaper El Pais. The Socialists4 would have the best chance of leading the coalition, if it could find allies. That might be difficult.

If a coalition government fails to take shape, there could be another election. In other words, it could be many months before a new prime minister is chosen.

Why is this so complex?

The most recent polls put the number of undecided Spanish voters as high as 40 percent of the population.

No one seems to know how many votes the new far-right party Vox will receive, but it seems clear the party will win seats. Far-right lawmakers have been largely missing from Spain’s political life for nearly 40 years. The leader of Vox was barred from the two election debates for legal reasons.

Some political observers say the candidate who performed best at the debates was Pablo Iglesias. He is the leader of the anti-austerity party Podemos. But opinion polls show his party has lost a lot of support in recent weeks.

The 350 deputies in Spain’s lower house of parliament are elected from 52 constituencies, whose sizes and economies are very different. Also, predicting who might win is difficult because of the large number of candidates.

Spanish parties are not familiar with coalition-building. And they have little reason to negotiate as they face local elections on May 26. Making compromises in the hope of forming a government may anger local voters.

Also, some of the parties are either having power struggles or have recently had them. There are new political leaders who might make changes or create unusual alliances.

Spaniards will also elect 208 representatives to the Senate. The Senate is less openly political and has been under the control of conservative lawmakers since 2011.

Who will be the Prime Minister?

If the Socialist party wins many seats, Sanchez could remain Prime Minister by forming a coalition with the Podemos party.

But recent polls show that the Socialist party will not do that well. Even if the party joins with Podemos, the coalition would need another ally. That ally would most likely come from one of the small, nationalist parties, perhaps one from Catalonia. The Socialists and Podemos would be forced to make compromises with that party. In the case of the Catalonian party, that might mean talking to Catalan secessionists.

The latest polls also say that the three rightist parties combined probably would not win a parliamentary majority.

The Socialists could form a coalition with the Ciudadanos, but the party’s leader, Albert Rivera, has said he would never join with the Socialists. Sanchez also said he had no plans to work with Rivera.

While the leader in all the polls, Sanchez wants to stay in power, but his coalition choices all have problems.

Only one thing is sure: Spain’s two-party system is dead.

What are the main issues for voters?

The general election campaign has dealt largely with two issues: identity and values. The economy is a distant third issue.

Catalonia’s campaign for independence has become one of the most important issues. Currently, 12 former leaders of the Catalan Independence movement are on trial.

Ciudadanos, Vox and Spain’s People’s Party are competing for the anti-separatist vote. The Socialists will also try to get the anti-separatist vote, but they may have to negotiate with the Catalans for a coalition. In years past, the Socialists have refused to give in to Catalan demands.

All the main parties have traded accusations5 of corruption6. The economy has been a minor7 issue, since it is growing at a yearly rate of about 2 percent.

Why should we care?

Over the past three years, Spain has had a number of minority or caretaker governments, so decisions on tax reform and other economic issues have been delayed.

And that may endanger Spain’s greatest strength: its growing economy.

I'm Dorothy Gundy and I’m Susan Shand.

Words in This Story

austerity – adj. things done to save money

concession8 – n. giving in to someone’s demands

secessionist –n. one who believes in secession, or pulling out of a union to be independent

mausoleum – n. a tomb at a grave


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1 coalition pWlyi     
n.结合体,同盟,结合,联合
参考例句:
  • The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
  • Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。
2 negotiations af4b5f3e98e178dd3c4bac64b625ecd0     
协商( negotiation的名词复数 ); 谈判; 完成(难事); 通过
参考例句:
  • negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
  • Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。
3 socialist jwcws     
n.社会主义者;adj.社会主义的
参考例句:
  • China is a socialist country,and a developing country as well.中国是一个社会主义国家,也是一个发展中国家。
  • His father was an ardent socialist.他父亲是一个热情的社会主义者。
4 socialists df381365b9fb326ee141e1afbdbf6e6c     
社会主义者( socialist的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • The socialists saw themselves as true heirs of the Enlightenment. 社会主义者认为自己是启蒙运动的真正继承者。
  • The Socialists junked dogma when they came to office in 1982. 社会党人1982年上台执政后,就把其政治信条弃之不顾。
5 accusations 3e7158a2ffc2cb3d02e77822c38c959b     
n.指责( accusation的名词复数 );指控;控告;(被告发、控告的)罪名
参考例句:
  • There were accusations of plagiarism. 曾有过关于剽窃的指控。
  • He remained unruffled by their accusations. 对于他们的指控他处之泰然。
6 corruption TzCxn     
n.腐败,堕落,贪污
参考例句:
  • The people asked the government to hit out against corruption and theft.人民要求政府严惩贪污盗窃。
  • The old man reviled against corruption.那老人痛斥了贪污舞弊。
7 minor e7fzR     
adj.较小(少)的,较次要的;n.辅修学科;vi.辅修
参考例句:
  • The young actor was given a minor part in the new play.年轻的男演员在这出新戏里被分派担任一个小角色。
  • I gave him a minor share of my wealth.我把小部分财产给了他。
8 concession LXryY     
n.让步,妥协;特许(权)
参考例句:
  • We can not make heavy concession to the matter.我们在这个问题上不能过于让步。
  • That is a great concession.这是很大的让步。

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