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VOA慢速英语--世界人口可能在本世纪中叶后减少

时间:2020-07-21 23:58:55

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World Populations May Shrink After Mid-Century

The time of growing human populations may be ending, a new study shows. And that move will affect society, the economy and the environment.

Today, the world is home to about 7.8 billion people. The study found that the world's population may top out at 9.7 billion on or around the year 2064. But researchers think it could shrink to 8.8 billion by the end of the century.

The findings appeared in the medical publication The Lancet.

The numbers come from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation1 (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle. Those estimates disagree with the findings of the United Nations Population Division. Its experts expect the population in 2100 to be 10.9 billion and rising.

U.N. Population Division chief John Wilmoth has called the new estimates "extreme."

If the study proves to be correct, however, the changes brought on by a shrinking population could be great.

"I think this is one of the more profound changes that's faced humanity ever," said Chris Murray. He is the director of the IHME and a co-author of the study.

The new estimates would be great news for the environment. Fewer people would make fewer pollutants2, for example. This would lower demand for food, reducing the demand that agriculture puts on land and water.

But a shrinking population could be very bad for the economy.

Decreasing populations mean fewer people are working, which means lower gross domestic product (GDP). It also means fewer people are able to buy things, and buying things is the basis of the international economy.

"What happens when you don't have young people buying their first house...buying the first car?" asked Darrell Bricker. He is co-writer of the book, "Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline." Bricker was not involved in the study.

Also, populations age as birth rates fall.

"This is actually more serious than just simple population decline," said Zhenchao Qian, a sociology professor at Brown University in Rhode Island. He was also not involved with the research.

A smaller workforce3 would be supporting a larger population of older adults, Qian said. He added that this puts great demands on paying for healthcare and social programs.

Population decreases could also have geopolitical affects. Fewer workers also mean fewer soldiers, Murray said.

"The balance of power between nation-states has always been related in some ways to the size of the working-age population," he said.

Female empowerment

Birth rates have been decreasing worldwide because women are getting more education and face fewer restrictions4 on birth control.

"It's really a story about female empowerment," Bricker said.

The main difference between the IHME estimate and the U.N. study is what researchers expect will happen after birth rates hit bottom.

Population numbers change little when women have about two children each. This is known as the replacement5 rate. Across wealthier countries, the average birth rate is more like 1.6.

The U.N. believes birth rates will rise again over time to 1.75.

But Chris Murray disagrees.

"We see no sign of that," he said.

He believes that decreasing birth rates in places like Japan and parts of Europe will expand to other countries.

By 2100, his group estimates that nearly every country in the world would be below the replacement rate. Populations in 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand and Spain, would be half what they were in 2017.

But only if Murray and IHME researchers are right.

'Great uncertainty6'

The U.N.'s John Wilmoth notes that both groups are basing their projections7 on "what's still early experience in the lives of a few countries. So...there's great uncertainty about that," he said.

"We will know much more about that in 10 or 20 years," he added. "But for now, we're both guessing."

Murray said countries will have three ways to keep their populations from decreasing.

"One is to make it easier for women to work and have children," he said.

Most countries have policies to help working mothers, he added, but that alone does not bring the birth rate to the replacement rate.

The second way is to open their borders to immigration. But many governments, including the Trump9 administration in the United States, are not open to increased immigration. Anger about the European Union's migration8 policies was a major issue in Britain's vote to leave the EU.

Ibrahim Abubakar is director of the University College London Institute for Global Health. In an opinion piece published in The Lancet, he wrote if the IHME's estimates are only 50 percent right, migration would be necessary for all nations.

Finally, some countries might decide to take away women's reproductive health rights in an effort to pressure them to have more children. He called that third way "very undesirable10."

I'm Susan Shand.

Words in This Story

profound - adj. deep, dramatic

author - n. one who writes an essay, book or article

gross domestic product - n. the total value of goods produced and services provided in a country during one year.Compare with

geopolitical - adj. relating to politics, especially international relations, as influenced by geographical11 factors.

decline - n. a decrease or lessening


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点击收听单词发音收听单词发音  

1 evaluation onFxd     
n.估价,评价;赋值
参考例句:
  • I attempted an honest evaluation of my own life.我试图如实地评价我自己的一生。
  • The new scheme is still under evaluation.新方案还在评估阶段。
2 pollutants 694861490fe64672170a0da250a277c7     
污染物质(尤指工业废物)( pollutant的名词复数 )
参考例句:
  • Pollutants are constantly being released into the atmosphere. 污染物质正在不断地被排放到大气中去。
  • The 1987 Amendments limit 301(g) discharges to a few well-studied nonconventional pollutants. 1987年的修正案把第301条(g)的普通排放限制施加在一些认真研究过的几种非常规污染物上。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
3 workforce workforce     
n.劳动大军,劳动力
参考例句:
  • A large part of the workforce is employed in agriculture.劳动人口中一大部分受雇于农业。
  • A quarter of the local workforce is unemployed.本地劳动力中有四分之一失业。
4 restrictions 81e12dac658cfd4c590486dd6f7523cf     
约束( restriction的名词复数 ); 管制; 制约因素; 带限制性的条件(或规则)
参考例句:
  • I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
  • a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制
5 replacement UVxxM     
n.取代,替换,交换;替代品,代用品
参考例句:
  • We are hard put to find a replacement for our assistant.我们很难找到一个人来代替我们的助手。
  • They put all the students through the replacement examination.他们让所有的学生参加分班考试。
6 uncertainty NlFwK     
n.易变,靠不住,不确知,不确定的事物
参考例句:
  • Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
  • After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后,压力开始产生影响了。
7 projections 7275a1e8ba6325ecfc03ebb61a4b9192     
预测( projection的名词复数 ); 投影; 投掷; 突起物
参考例句:
  • Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
  • The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。
8 migration mDpxj     
n.迁移,移居,(鸟类等的)迁徙
参考例句:
  • Swallows begin their migration south in autumn.燕子在秋季开始向南方迁移。
  • He described the vernal migration of birds in detail.他详细地描述了鸟的春季移居。
9 trump LU1zK     
n.王牌,法宝;v.打出王牌,吹喇叭
参考例句:
  • He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
  • The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手,作为他的王牌。
10 undesirable zp0yb     
adj.不受欢迎的,不良的,不合意的,讨厌的;n.不受欢迎的人,不良分子
参考例句:
  • They are the undesirable elements among the employees.他们是雇员中的不良分子。
  • Certain chemicals can induce undesirable changes in the nervous system.有些化学物质能在神经系统中引起不良变化。
11 geographical Cgjxb     
adj.地理的;地区(性)的
参考例句:
  • The current survey will have a wider geographical spread.当前的调查将在更广泛的地域范围內进行。
  • These birds have a wide geographical distribution.这些鸟的地理分布很广。

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