VOA新闻杂志2024--In 2024, More Than 60 Nations to Hold National Elections

（单词翻译）

In 2024, More Than 60 Nations to Hold National Elections

2024 will go down as one of the most politically important years in history. More than 60 countries will hold national elections representing half of the world's population.

Here is a look at six of the year's most important elections.

United States

The U.S. presidential election looks to be a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump¹. The two front-runners have very different opinions on America's place in the world. The results in November's race may decide how tough the U.S. will be on China, Russia and other international rivals.

Joseph S. Nye Jr. is the former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense². He told VOA that Trump's "America First" position is attempting to bring isolationism back in foreign policy. That could leave U.S. allies in a difficult position as the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars continue.

"On Russia," Nye said, "Trump is likely to be more favorable to Putin. That means pressure to reduce support for Ukraine is very likely."

As president, Biden has sent military aid packages to Ukraine and Israel, even as he faces opposition⁴ from both parties.

Biden is currently behind Trump in the polls in a possible rematch.

Russia

Russia will hold its presidential election in March. Following its invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago, Russia has become the most sanctioned country in the world. The sanctions have harmed its economy and driven Russia closer to China.

Experts do not expect Russian President Vladimir Putin to lose in 2024. His top political rivals are jailed, exiled, missing or dead.

If Putin wins another six years, Russia will continue "the same brutal⁵ agenda in Ukraine and increasingly autocratic policies at home," said Sergey Radchenko. He is a professor of Soviet⁶ history at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

Experts say the level of success Putin sees in his war with Ukraine may depend on who wins the U.S. presidential election.

European Union

The European Union is heading for elections in June. Anti-immigration leaders with soft positions on Russia and China are set to push the European Parliament to the right. The Parliament, though, plays only a supervisory role in the EU.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has yet to announce whether she is running for reelection. She has shown strong support to Ukraine.

If reelected, von der Leyen would serve as an equalizing force in an increasingly populist European Union. She would work to balance the often-conflicting interests of different member nations with her goal of containing Russia.

The election results will decide is how much pushback von der Leyen's pro-Ukraine agenda will face from incoming right-wing European lawmakers. That is especially important as Ukraine gets closer to becoming an EU member nation.

India

India holds its general elections this spring. Critics of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling BJP party say the country's religious minorities are facing widespread persecution⁷, or unfair treatment. Modi's Hindu nationalist agenda has gained popularity. Violence against Sikh and Muslim Indians has become increasingly common.

Modi's government stands accused of killing⁸ a Sikh expatriate in Canada last summer and a failed plot to kill a Sikh activist⁹ living in New York City in November. Those incidents have affected¹⁰ India's diplomatic ties with the West.

Modi has a very high approval rating among Indian voters and appears likely to earn a third five-year term. If he wins, Modi is expected to build on the relationships he has made with both Trump and Biden during his time as prime minister.

South Africa

South Africa's ruling party is at its weakest point since it came to power in 1994. The African National Congress (ANC) is at risk of losing its majority in the legislature. To stay in power, the ANC will likely be forced to form a coalition¹¹ with other parties.

South Africa is the most industrialized nation in Africa. But with a one-third unemployment rate and power shortages across the nation, some young South Africans are turning away from the ANC.

Still, it is likely that the ANC will stay in charge for the next five years, said Daniel Silke. He is a South African political expert.

The Democratic Alliance (DA) is the largest opposition party. If the DA wins an unlikely victory, there would be "improvement in relations between South Africa and the West," Silke said.

Silke said the ANC remaining in power could make way for an even stronger connection between South Africa and China.

Words in This Story

isolation³ — n. the state of being in a place or situation that is separate from others

semiconductor¹² — n. a material or object that allows some electricity or heat to move through it and that is used especially in electronic devices

sovereignty — n. unlimited¹³ power over a country

approach — n. a way of dealing¹⁴ with something

sanction — n. an action that is taken or an order that is given to force a country to obey international laws by limiting or stopping trade with that country, by not allowing economic aid for that country, etc.

brutal — adj. extremely cruel or harsh

autocratic — adj. a person who rules with total power

role — n. a part that someone or something has in a particular activity or situation

populist — n. of or relating to a political party that claims to represent ordinary people

persecute¹⁵ — v. to treat cruelly or unfairly especially because of race or religious or political beliefs

expatriate — n. a person who lives in a foreign country