Europe Evaluates Sanctions on Iran
时间：2012-02-17 05:59:30
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The European Union has responded with a shrug1 to Iran's threat to cut off oil exports to some EU members several months before an EU embargo2 on Iranian oil takes effect. At the same time, Iran has floated an offer to resume talks on its nuclear program. Does this mean sanctions by the EU and other nations are working - or is Tehran simply playing for time?
In recent days, Iran has been sending what some see as mixed messages to Europe - and to the world - related to its controversial nuclear program.
On Wednesday, Iranian television showed President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad overseeing what was described as Iran's first home-made fuel rod being loaded into a research
reactor3. Iran also announced advances in its uranium enrichment program. But this week also brought news that Iran is willing to resume
negotiations5 on its nuclear program with Europe and other Western powers.
Despite Iranian denials, many nations believe Iran is secretly using its
civilian6 nuclear program to develop nuclear weapons. The United Nations, United States and EU have imposed a variety of sanctions in a bid to stop that.
So how should Tehran's
apparently7 conflicting signals be read? With difficulty, says Nick Witney, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
"If you're an
optimist8, you can say that the Iranians are actually seriously worried - as they ought to be - about what is going to happen progressively as the year goes on, as the sanctions
tighten9 - and are looking for a way to at least explore some sort of accommodation," said Witney.
Iran's worries not only include EU and U.S. sanctions, but also repeated reports that Israel is considering a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Under this
scenario10, Witney says, Iranian threats could be a way to
coax11 world powers to return to the negotiating table.
The European Union has been pushing the diplomatic route to end the standoff on the nuclear issue. It has been
steadily14 tightening15 sanctions against Tehran - aimed to cripple its financial and oil lifelines. The EU embargo of Iranian oil is due to begin July 1. Even if Iran cuts off supplies now, this EU spokeswoman told reporters that Europe isn't worried.
"If you're talking about security of supply, we say in this market that oil is something that you can get on international markets," she said. "I know that Saudi Arabia has already said that they would increase the production. So what we hear from member states is that they will switch to the other suppliers and that will be the case."
Meanwhile, media reports suggest that as its coffers
dwindle16, Iran is resorting to
bartering17 to import basic foods. So are EU and other Western sanctions working? Again,
analyst18 Nick Witney:
"I think so. I do agree the sanctions are encouraging Iran back toward the negotiating table," he said. "Now, whether they have any intention when they get back to the negotiating table to negotiate realistically is anybody's guess."
The EU is studying Iran's
overture19 to resume the nuclear negotiations, which stopped a year ago. But Witney says Europe sees few options to resolve the standoff besides more talks - and more sanctions.
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