经济学人33:当代最具影响力的央行行长

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　　文艺；书评；保罗·沃尔克;伟人传奇；

　　Volcker: The Triumph of Persistence¹. By William Silber.

　　《沃尔克：金石为开》威廉· 希尔伯著。

　　Alan Greenspan may be the most famous central banker of the modern era, but Paul Volcker has been the most influential². He played a crucial diplomatic role during the death of the Bretton Woods financial system in the early 1970s, which severed³ the link between money and gold and ushered⁴ in floating exchange rates. As head of the Federal Reserve from 1979, Mr Volcker then tamed the inflation that ensued, bringing monetary⁵ stability in the face of political opposition⁶ to the very high interest rates required. In doing so, he set the template for modern economic management, built around an independent central bank with an implicit⁷, or explicit⁸, inflation target.

　　历任当代央行行长中，或许最知名的是艾伦·格林斯潘（ALAN GREENSPAN），但最有影响力的则是保罗．沃尔克。他于二十世纪七十年代初扮演着至关重要的外交角色，期间货币与黄金脱钩、浮动汇率制被引入、布雷顿森林体系走向瓦解。1979年，沃尔克出任美联储主席。为了控制随之而来的通货膨胀，沃尔克不顾来自政治方面的反对声音，大幅提高利率，带来了货币稳定。借此，他构建了当代经济管理模式，设立了具有明确/隐含通胀目标的一家独立央行。

　　After serving at the Treasury⁹ under Richard Nixon, the towering (6ft 7in) Mr Volcker was appointed to the Fed by both Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. More recently he has been an adviser¹¹ to Barack Obama, who traded on the former Fed chief's credibility by dubbing¹² his plan to end banks' proprietary¹³ trading the “Volcker rule”.

　　在尼克松（Richard Nixon）政府的财政部工作过后，伟岸的沃尔克先生（6英尺7英寸，即2米出头)同时被吉米·卡特（Jimmy Carter）和罗纳德·里根（Ronald Reagan）提名推荐到美联储。最近，他又成为了布莱克·奥巴马（Barack Obama）的顾问。奥巴马利用这位前美联储主席的声誉，将其提出的禁止银行自营交易的计划称为“沃尔克规则”。

　　This long record of public service earns the admiration¹⁴ of William Silber, his new biographer. Mr Volcker could have earned much more on Wall Street. Upon becoming head of the Fed, his salary was halved¹⁵. To balance their domestic budget, his wife,took a part-time job as a book-keeper and let a room in their flat. He smoked cheap (and smelly) cigars because he could not imagine spending as much as $2 on a stogie. In later life, when he chaired investigations¹⁶ into the UN oil-for-food programme or Arthur Andersen, an accountancy firm, he charged only a token $1 fee.

　　沃尔克的新自传撰写人威廉· 希尔伯（William Silber）对其在公共服务的长期贡献深表敬佩。沃尔克本可在华尔街赚得更多。他的薪水在其出任美联储主席时缩减了一半。为了平衡家庭收支，妻子芭芭拉（Barbara）当时从事着一份记账员的兼职工作，并对外出租了他们公寓里的一个房间。沃尔克则抽着廉价（还有点难闻）的雪茄，原因是他最多肯为每支廉价雪茄支付2美元。后来，不论是在他负责联合国有关 “石油换食品”计划受贿案的调查项目时、还是出任安达信（一家咨询公司）独立监察委员会主席时，沃尔克都仅象征性地收取1美元作为薪酬。

　　Yet Mr Volcker still lacked the consolation¹⁷ of popularity, unlike Mr Greenspan, who was praised by the press and politicians for much of his term. Democrats¹⁹ blamed Mr Volcker for losing them the 1980 election because of his tight monetary policy. Milton Friedman saw him as insufficiently²⁰ monetarist, and many in the Reagan White House regarded him with suspicion as a Democrat¹⁸. Mr Volcker barely made it though his eight years at the Fed. He nearly failed to be reappointed in 1983 and almost resigned in 1986, when defeated on a key vote. It was only in retrospect²¹ that his reputation grew; Mr Silber's well-written book should help cement it.

　　即便如此，沃尔克仍然缺乏来自民众的安慰；而格林斯潘在位期间，则常常受到媒体与政客的称颂。民主党人士认为，施行紧缩型货币政策的沃尔克要对他们1980年的落选负责。米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）认为沃尔克的货币主义没做到位，而许多里根政府人士则对他的民主党身份抱有质疑。八年的美联储生涯，沃尔克很少有“一举成功”的时刻。1983年，他差点落选继任美联储主席的提名；1986年则由于在一次关键性投票中落败，近乎提出辞呈。只有在后人的回顾里，才能慢慢发现沃尔克的荣望所在；而希尔伯在其所著传记里，应该很好地印证了这番观点。

　　While Mr Volcker's record at the Fed is well-known, what might be more surprising is the crucial role he played in the exchange-rate crises of the early 1970s. Like an economic Henry Kissinger, Mr Volcker shuttled around the world to placate²² foreign allies in the face of Nixon's marked indifference²³ to international economics. “I don't give a shit about the lira,” was one of Tricky²⁴ Dick's choice phrases.

　　沃尔克在美联储的任职经历广为人知，其更令人惊讶的，应是他于二十世纪七十年代早期在汇率危机中所扮演的重要角色。同经济学家艾尔弗雷德·基辛格（Henry Kissinger）相似，沃尔克穿梭于世界各地安抚国际同盟，尽管当时尼克松对国际经济满不在乎。“我才不在乎什么里拉”，摘自滑头迪克语录。

　　For decades politicians had mouthed their support for a strong currency, but Nixon cut through the claptrap. “Volcker thinks we ought to sacrifice the domestic economy to save the dollar,” he said. “I'm not in favour of that.” The dollar duly fell sharply in the 1970s, although it rebounded²⁵ under Mr Volcker's tenure²⁶ at the Fed. Mr Silber praises his subject for stabilising the currency and also for opposing Reagan's budget deficits²⁷. Whether he is right to say that it was those deficits that pushed up real interest rates in the 1980s is harder to tell; after all, deficits are even higher now and real rates are negative:

　　当时政客们已泛泛而谈支持美元长达数十年，但尼克松一语打消了这种言不由衷的空谈。“沃尔克认为我们应该牺牲国民经来救美元，”他称。“对此我并不赞成。”这导致美元于二十世纪七十年代急速跌落，尽管后来由于沃尔克在位美联储而有所恢复。希尔伯对沃尔克致力于稳定货币、反对里根财政赤字的行为表示称赞。是否如其所称，二十世纪80年代时正是这些赤字推动了实际利率上扬，如今更加难以分辨；毕竟当今赤字更加高额，而实际利率却为负值。

　　Perhaps the most remarkable²⁸ fact about Mr Volcker is that he has spent much of his career dealing²⁹ with Wall Street without being captured by its influence. Mr Silber highlights his subject's commitment to financial reform, but fails to mention one of his more pointed¹⁰ bon mots—that the only useful modern financial innovation has been the automated³⁰ teller³¹ machine. Such robust³² cynicism about Wall Street, along with his links to the current president, may explain why Mr Volcker is not a hero of the conservative movement, despite his anti-inflationary credentials³³.

　　沃尔克未受到华尔街影响，毕其大半精力与之斡旋， 这或许是他最杰出的功绩。希尔伯强调了沃尔克对金融改革所做的贡献，却未提及他更为尖锐的箴——即当代唯一有用的金融创新就是自动提款机。对华尔街如此口出恶言，加之其与现任总统的关系，沃尔克即便有过多么光荣的反通胀传奇也无法成为保守主义运动中的伟人了吧。

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