Step by Step 3000 第1册 Unit11:Visions of the Future(3)

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　　A. Keywords. responsibility, computers, brain activity.

　　Vocabulary. impose, diagnosis¹, scalp.

　　You are going to hear some predictions on the future.

　　Listen carefully and supply the missing words.

　　1. Your 21th century future.

　　The future will not determine itself, the future is determined² by the actions of the present day.

　　Edward Cornish, the editor of the Futurist magazine, published by the World Future Society, says:

　　"The responsibility we have for the future begins when we recognize that we are ourselves create the future.

　　That the future is not something imposed upon us by fate or other forces beyond our control."

　　2. Your 21st century doctor

　　More and more doctors will use computers for medical diagnosis and treatment.

　　You will visit your doctor and find that he uses a computer screen and vision information about your condition instead of his textbooks.

　　Computers in your home will enable you to answer interactive³ questions about your health and show the alternative results which will affect you if you act in a certain way.

　　3. Your 21st century brain

　　Your brainwaves maybe used to check out whether you're busy, tired or doing your work properly.

　　Psychologist Arthur F.Kramer, at the university of Illinois, tested volunteers working on arithmetic problems.

　　He found that he could predict their performance from the strength of the brain's electrical activity.

　　This is measured through the scalp.

　　The future? Bosses could measure brain activity through the scalp and tell whether a worker is performing well, working hard, or too tired to do the job properly.

　　Ongoing⁴ computer analysis could tell whether a worker such as an air traffic controller is seeing all the activity they have to monitor clearly enough.

　　B. Keywords. tourism, forecast, tourist arrivals.

　　Vocabulary. long-haul, World Tourism Organization (WTO).

　　You are going to hear some information about world tourism.

　　And complete the following information according to what you hear on the tape.

　　WTO, long-term forecast tourism 2020 vision.

　　Tourism 2020 vision is the World Tourism Organization's long-term forecast and assessment⁵ of the development of tourism up to the first 20 years of the new millennium⁶.

　　WTO's tourism 2020 vision forecast the international arrivals are expected to reach over 1.56 billion by the year 2020.

　　Of these worldwide arrivals in 2020, 1.18 billion will be intraregional, and 0.38 billion will be long-haul travellers.

　　The total tourist arrivals by region shows by 2020, the top three receiving regions will be Europe (717 million tourists), East Asia and the Pacific (397 million) and the Americas (282 million).

　　Followed by Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.

　　East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, the Middle East and Africa are forecasted to record growth at a rate of over 5% per year, compared to the world average of 4.1%.

　　Europe will maintain the highest percentage of world arrivals, although there will be a decline from 60% in 1995 to 46% in 2020.

　　By 2010, the Americas will lose its NO.2 position to the East Asia and the Pacific region which will receive 25% of world arrivals in 2020 with the Americas decreasing from 19% in 1995 to 18 percent in 2020.

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