经济学人291:美国拉美裔族群 如何调动美国的活力

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　　美国拉美裔族群

　　How to fire up America

　　如何调动美国的活力

　　The rise of Latinos is a huge opportunity. The United States must not squander¹ it

　　拉美裔族群的增大带来无限机遇，美国可别错过了

　　A SATIRICAL film in 2004, called “A Day Without a Mexican”, imagined Californians running scared after their cooks, nannies and gardeners had vanished. Set it in today's America and it would be a more sobering drama. If 57m Hispanics were to disappear, public-school playgrounds would lose one child in four and employers from Alaska to Alabama would struggle to stay open. Imagine the scene by mid-century, when the Latino population is set to have doubled again.

　　2004年，一部名叫《没有墨西哥人的日子》的电影描绘了加利福尼亚人在发现他们的厨子、保姆、园丁通通消失后的惊恐，影片满满都是讽刺。这事要发生在今天的美国，则没那么好笑了。假如5700万拉美裔人间蒸发，公办学校的操场上的孩子将减少四分之一，全美的老板们将发现开门营业都是件困难的事。而到本世纪中期，拉美裔美国人数量翻番后再想想这件事，那就真的就是灾难了。

　　美国拉美裔族群.jpg

　　Listen to some, and foreign scroungers threaten America, a soft-hearted country with a wide-open border. For almost two centuries after America was founded, more than 80% of its citizens were whites of European descent. Today, non-Hispanic whites have dropped below two-thirds of the population. They are on course to become a minority by 2044. At a recent gathering² of Republicans with presidential ambitions, a former governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee, growled³ about “illegal people” rushing in “because they've heard that there is a bowl of food just across the border.”

　　听听看某些外国骗子们都是怎么说美国这个温柔而开放的国家的。在美国建国后的近两个世纪中，逾八成公民是欧洲裔。而今，非拉美裔白人在美国总人口中所占比例已低至不足三分之二。这样下去，到2044年，欧洲裔白人在美国将成为少数族裔。在最近的一次共和党总统候选人集会中，阿肯色州前州长麦克·赫卡比叫嚣道，那些“非法人群”涌入美国，“只因为他们听说越过国境就有饭吃。”

　　Politicians are right that a demographic revolution is under way. But, as our special report this week shows, their panic about immigration and the national interest is misguided. America needs its Latinos. To prosper⁵, it must not exclude them, but help them realise their potential.

　　美国的人口革命正在悄然进行着，在这一点上政客们并没有错。但正如本刊本周的特别报道所言，政客们对移民和所谓国家利益的理解被误导了。美国需要她的拉美裔公民。为了继续繁荣发展，美国要做的不是将其驱逐出境，而是帮助他们释放自身的潜能。

　　A Hispanic attack

　　拉美冲击

　　Those who whip up border fever are wrong on the facts. The southern frontier has never been harder to cross. Recent Hispanic population growth has mostly been driven by births, not fresh immigration. Even if the borders could somehow be sealed and every unauthorised migrant deported—which would be cruel and impossible—some 48m legally resident Hispanics would remain. Latino growth will not be stopped.

　　那些鼓吹边境冲突的人们都错了。美国南部边境一直很难偷渡，近期的拉美裔人口激增也更多的是因为出生率的上升而非新移民的涌入。即使当局想方设法严守边境，并遣返每个非法移民（这显然既残忍，又不可行），还是会有4800万拉美裔非法移民留在美国，且拉美裔人群的增长并不会因此停止。

　　A Special report on America's Hispanics

　　关于美国拉美裔人群的特别报道

　　They are also wrong about demography⁶. From Europe to north-east Asia, the 21st century risks being an age of old people, slow growth and sour, timid politics. Swelling⁷ armies of the elderly will fight to defend their pensions and other public services. Between now and mid-century, Germany's median age will rise to 52. China's population growth will flatten⁸ and then fall; its labour force is already shrinking. Not America's. By 2050 its median age will be a sprightly⁹ 41 and its population will still be growing. Latinos will be a big part of that story.

　　他们对人口统计学的理解也是错误的。从欧洲到东北亚，在21世纪，各国普遍都面临着人口老龄化、人口增长减缓和政治保守的问题。不断扩大的老年人群将为他们的养老金和其他公共服务抗争到底。从现在到本世纪中期，德国的中值年龄将上升到52岁。中国的人口增长将趋于缓和，最终开始下降，而中国的劳动人口已经开始减少。然而美国并不如此。到2050年，美国中值年龄仅仅达到41岁，人口继续增加，而拉美裔人口在这一过程中贡献不小。

　　The nativists fret¹⁰ that Hispanics will be a race apart, tied to homelands racked by corruption¹¹ and crime. Early migrants from Europe, they note, built new lives an ocean away from their ancestral lands. Hispanics, by contrast, can maintain ties with relatives who stayed behind, thanks to cheap flights and Skype. This fear is wildly exaggerated. People can love two countries, just as loving your spouse¹² does not mean you love your mother less. Nativists are distracting America from the real task, which is to make Hispanic integration¹³ a success.

　　本土主义者们普遍担忧拉美裔将带来种族分裂，因为他们与自己饱受腐败和犯罪困扰的祖国紧密相连。他们指出，早期来自欧洲的移民远离故土，横跨大洋，在美国建立起新生活。但对比之下，有了廉价航空和Skype软件，拉美裔族群可以轻松与留在落后地区的亲戚朋友保持联系。这一忧虑在很大程度上被夸大了。人们可以同时深爱两个国家，正如你对伴侣的爱意并不会使你减少对母亲的爱。本土主义者们正将美国拖离正途，阻止拉美裔族群成功融入美国社会。

　　An unprecedented¹⁴ test of social mobility¹⁵ looms¹⁶. Today's Latinos are poorer and worse-educated than the American average. As a vast (and mostly white) cohort of middle-class baby-boomers retires, America must educate the young Hispanics who will replace them, or the whole country will suffer. Some states understand what is at stake—and are passing laws to make college cheaper for children with good grades but the wrong legal status. Others are going backwards¹⁷. Texas Republicans are debating whether to make college costlier¹⁸ for undocumented students—a baffling move in a state where, by 2050, Hispanic workers will outnumber whites three to one.

　　对社会流动性前所未有的考验正在冒头。在今天的美国，拉美裔族群普遍处于贫困线之下，受教育水平也不高。随着大部分婴儿潮时期出生的中产阶级步入退休阶段（他们中绝大多数是白人），美国必须好好教育拉美裔族群年轻的一代，他们将是新的主力军，否则后果堪忧。一些州已经意识到形势的变化，他们颁布法律，让学习好的非法移民子女能以更低的学费进入大学。但也有的州反其道而行之。德克萨斯州的共和党正就是否要提高非法移民大学生的学费展开辩论，在这个到2050年拉丁裔工人将达到白人三倍的州上，这一行为颇令人费解。

　　Politicians of both left and right will have to change their tune¹⁹. For a start, they will have to stop treating Hispanics as almost a single-issue group—as either villains²⁰ or victims of the immigration system. Almost 1m Latinos reach voting age each year. With every election, Hispanics will want to hear less about immigration and more about school reform, affordable²¹ health care and policies to help them get into the middle class.

　　无论其政治倾向如何，政客们都得改变态度了。首先，他们不能再简单地认为拉美裔族是一个单一问题族裔——要么就是把他们看作移民体制的破坏者，要么是受害者。如今，每年约有100万拉美裔青少年达到选举年龄。随着历次选举的推进，拉美裔族群想听到的是人们更多地谈论学校改革、可承受的医疗服务和帮助他们跻身中产阶级的政策，而不是非法移民问题。

　　Republicans have the most work ahead. The party has done a wretched job of making Latinos feel welcome, and suffered for it at the polls. Just 27% of Hispanics voted for Mitt²² Romney, the Republican presidential candidate in 2012, after he suggested that life should be made so miserable²³ for migrants without legal papers that they “self-deport”. Yet Democrats²⁴ have no reason to be smug. At present, most Latinos do not vote at all; as they grow more prosperous their votes will be up for grabs. Jeb Bush, a putative²⁵ White House contender in 2016 who is married to a Latina, has wooed Latinos by saying that illegal migration⁴ is often an act of family “love”.

　　在这一问题上，共和党人要做的还有很多。共和党为拉美裔族群融入社会所做的事寥寥无几，因此也没少在民意调查中受到诟病。2012年，当共和党总统候选人罗姆尼建议出台政策使非法移民在美国难以生存，督促他们“自我驱逐”后，只有27%的拉美裔族群为他投票。但民主党也不必沾沾自喜。目前，绝大多数拉美裔不投票。随着拉美裔的发展壮大，他们手中的选票将变得举足轻重起来。2016年白宫之主有力的竞争者杰布·布什就娶了一位拉美裔妻子，他在向拉美裔族群拉票时曾言，非法移民通常是出于对家庭的“爱”。

　　Since their votes cannot be taken for granted, Hispanics will become ever more influential²⁶. This is especially true of those who leave the Catholic church to become Protestants. This subset already outnumbers Jewish-Americans, and is that rare thing: a true swing electorate²⁷, backing Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama. America should welcome the competition: its sclerotic democracy needs swing voters.

　　由于人们不能想当然地认为拉美裔族群会给哪个政党投票，拉美裔在美国社会中的重要性将继续上升。这一趋势对于那些摒弃天主教改信新教的人来说尤其真实。在美国，拉美裔如今比犹太人还多，并出现了这样的罕见现象：拉美裔在选举上摇摆不定，曾先后支持过克林顿、小布什和奥巴马。美国理应鼓励竞争，其僵化的民主需要的正是摇摆不定的选民。

　　Chilies²⁸ in the mix

　　混点辣椒好下饭

　　Anxious Americans should have more faith in their system. High-school-graduation rates are rising among Latinos; teenage pregnancy²⁹ is falling. Inter-marriage between Hispanics and others is rising. The children and grandchildren of migrants are learning English—just like immigrants of the past. They are bringing something new, too. A distinctive³⁰, bilingual Hispanic American culture is blurring³¹ old distinctions between Mexican-Americans and other Latinos. That culture's swaggering soft power can be felt across the Spanish-speaking world: just ask artists such as Romeo Santos, a bachata singer of Dominican-Puerto Rican stock, raised in the Bronx. His name is unknown to many Anglos, but he has sold out Yankee Stadium in New York (twice) and 50,000-seat stadiums from Mexico City to Buenos Aires. One of his hits, “Propuesta Indecente”, has been viewed on YouTube more than 600m times.

　　焦躁的美国人至少该对自己的体制有点信心。在拉美裔青少年中，高中毕业率持续走高，而青少年怀孕的比例正在下降。拉美裔族群与其他种族的通婚现象已经增多，他们的后代也开始学习英语——这一切都与之前的移民如出一辙。拉美裔移民也带来不少新事物。现如今，别具特色、双语的拉美文化使得墨西哥裔族及拉美裔族的旧式差异不那么明显。这一文化昂扬的软实力在西语世界怒刷存在感：随口打听几个艺人，比如说罗密欧·桑托斯，多米尼加-波多黎各血统，纽约布朗克斯区长大的巴恰塔歌手，许多美国白人并不认识他，但他已经在纽约洋基体育场开了两场演唱会，从墨西哥城到布宜诺斯艾利斯，每个五万座以上的运动馆都有他的足迹，演出场场爆满。他的新单曲之一Propuesta Indecente在YouTube上的点击已经超过6000万次。

　　America has been granted an extraordinary stroke of luck: a big dose of youth and energy, just as its global competitors are greying. Making the most of this chance will take pragmatism and goodwill³². Get it right, and a diverse, outward-facing America will have much to teach the world.

　　美国真是撞大运了，在竞争对手们普遍走向老龄化的同时迎来这一大波新生力量。充分利用这一机遇才是既实际又有效。美国若能妥善处理好这一问题，展现其开放而多元的一面，那么整个世界都会拜服于此，尊美国为师。

　　1.struggle to 为…而斗争；拼争

　　He grandly declared that "international politics is a struggle for power".

　　他一本正经地宣称“国际政治是一场权力之争”。

　　This age-old struggle for control had led to untold³³ bloody³⁴ wars.

　　这场由来已久的对控制权的争夺已经引发了无数流血的战争。

　　2.thanks to 幸亏，多亏，由于

　　The delegation³⁵ was carrying a message of thanks to President Mubarak.

　　代表团向穆巴拉克总统转达了谢意。

　　Thanks to that job I became an avid³⁶ reader.

　　多亏了那份工作我才成了一个喜欢阅读的人。

　　3.get into 进入；陷入；养成

　　I want you to get into a whole new state of mind.

　　我想让你有一个全新的心态。

　　Whenever I get into a relationship, I always fall madly in love.

　　我每次谈恋爱都深陷其中，无法自拔。

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