经济学人:英国投票 到底哪里出了错?(1)

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　　The Vote: Whodunit¹? 投票：谁干的？

　　Post-mortem of Britain's electoral upset. 英国大选意外结果的事后反思。

　　The Conservative Party began the election campaign with an enormous lead and even on election day was expecting to increase its majority. 保守党以一个大党派开始竞选，甚至期望在选举日增加多的席位。

　　What went wrong? 到底哪里出了错？

　　The biggest unknown ahead of the election was turnout. 选举前最大的未知是投票率。

　　Labour was wildly popular among the young, but polling firms differed in their estimates of how many young people would vote at all. 工党在年轻人中广受欢迎，但民意调查公司对最终有多少年轻人投票评估不同。

　　In the event, Labour's young fans excelled themselves: turnout among people aged² 18-24 was 57%, according to a large post-election survey by YouGov, a pollster. 在这次事件中，工党的年轻粉丝超越了他们自己：根据一家民意调查站YouGov选举后大型的民意调查，18到24岁这个年龄段人的投票率占57%。

　　That is 14 percentage points greater than in 2015. 这比2015年多了14个百分点。

　　Age is now the main determining factor affecting party choice. 现在，年龄已经成为政党选择的主要决定因素。

　　The “phenomenal” generational divide has never before been so stark³, according to John Curtice of NatCen Social Research. 根据英国国家社会研究中心的John Curtice所说，代沟现象从来没有像现在这么突出。

　　Mr Corbyn pulled in young people in droves by promising⁴ free university tuition. Corbyn先生通过承诺大学免学费来拉拢年轻人。

　　Labour won 43 of the 60 constituencies where full-time⁵ students make up 15% or more of the adult population, five of which it gained from the Tories. 工党赢得了60个选区中的43个，其中全日制学生占成年人口的15%或更多，其中有5个得自保守党。

　　Overall, turnout rose by 2.5 points to 68.7%, the highest since 1997. 总体来说，投票率上升了2.5个百分点到达68.7%，是自1997年以来的最高点。

　　Seat-by-seat analysis shows that it increased most in areas with large populations of well-educated under-45s;  Seat-by-seat分析显示：这现象（投票率上升）在那些受过良好教育的45岁以下的大人口地区，

　　areas that are ethnically⁶ diverse; and areas that voted to remain in the European Union last year. 那些多民族地区和去年投票留在欧盟的地区最为明显。

　　That probably cost the Conservatives. 这可能会让保守党付出代价。

　　Turnout in pro-EU London, where they lost six seats, increased by five points to surpass 70% for the first time since 1992. 在支持欧盟的伦敦，他们失去了6个席位，在1992年以来第一次增长了5个百分点，首次超过了70%。

　　Brexit paid some dividends⁷ to the Tories. 英国脱欧支付股息给保守党。

　　In 2015 the UK Independence Party won 12.6% of the vote with an anti-EU message. 2015，英国独立党以反对欧盟的信息赢得了12.6%的选票。

　　With the referendum won, its vote collapsed⁸. 随着全民公决的胜利，它的支持率骤跌。

　　About 60% of those who voted for UKIP in 2015 defected to the Conservatives, according to a post-election survey by Lord Ashcroft. 在2015年投奔了保守党中大约有60%的人投票赞成独立党，根据选举后的阿什克罗夫特勋爵的调查。

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