美国国家公共电台 NPR Once A Regional Stabilizer, Saudi Arabia Becomes A Disrupter

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Once A Regional Stabilizer, Saudi Arabia Becomes A Disrupter

MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:

For generations, Saudi Arabia's monarchs¹ have based their rule on tradition and caution and, above all, stability. Crown Prince Mohammed bin² Salman represents a break from that, and his actions have some wondering whether Saudi Arabia may be destabilizing the Gulf³ region. Here's NPR national security correspondent Greg Myre.

GREG MYRE, BYLINE⁴: The old Saudi Arabia was a place the United States often turned to in times of turbulence⁵ - when oil prices were spiking⁶ or political tensions were spiraling out of control. The new Saudi Arabia, under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is now a key actor and sometimes an instigator⁷ in some of the region's most combustible⁸ events.

BRUCE RIEDEL: Mohammed bin Salman has demonstrated recklessness and impulsiveness⁹ in decision-making that has been very costly¹⁰ to the kingdom.

MYRE: That's Bruce Riedel of the Brookings Institution, who keeps a close watch on the kingdom. The crown prince is just 33. He rose to prominence¹¹ three years ago when his father, King Salman, now age 82, became the most recent of seven brothers to take the Saudi throne. Since then, the Saudis have embarked¹² on a war in Yemen, they've blockaded their neighbor, Qatar, and now they're under intense scrutiny¹³ for the disappearance¹⁴ and apparent death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

GREGORY GAUSE: I think that the difference between Mohammed bin Salman and his uncles who ruled Saudi Arabia previously¹⁵ is that he might not have a sense of the limits of Saudi power.

MYRE: That's Gregory Gause, a professor at Texas A&M and an expert on Saudi Arabia. He says these episodes raise questions about the crown prince's judgment¹⁶.

GAUSE: He doesn't appreciate the second and third-order consequences and risks of some of these actions that he's taken.

MYRE: Like the war in Yemen, where the U.S. supports the Saudis, it's become a military stalemate and a humanitarian¹⁷ catastrophe¹⁸. The U.S.-Saudi relationship, which dates to World War II, has often been bumpy¹⁹.

JON ALTERMAN: The U.S.-Saudi relationship has always been about interests and not values.

MYRE: So says Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Those interests include stability in world oil markets, countering an expansive Iran and keeping the Gulf calm.

ALTERMAN: U.S. presidents have come to understand, by the end of their term, that a lot of things in the Middle East and around the world are much easier to do with the Saudis on board and much more difficult if the Saudis are fighting you.

MYRE: This battle with Iran for preeminence²⁰ in the region drives Saudi policy. But before Mohammed, the Saudis relied more on diplomacy²¹ and their financial clout²². The crown prince has a more confrontational²³ approach, says Gregory Gause.

GAUSE: He sees Iran kind of throwing its weight around in the region. And I think he says, why can't Saudi Arabia do that? Well, I think that Saudi Arabia hasn't been able to do it successfully.

MYRE: Donald Trump²⁴ made his first foreign trip as president to Saudi Arabia, and he's a staunch supporter of the kingdom. This may have encouraged the Saudis to be more aggressive. But the international outcry over the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi may change the equation, says Bruce Riedel.

RIEDEL: The Khashoggi affair has now really raised a Pandora's box for the administration. The Congress and the American media are not going to let the Khashoggi affair just go away.

MYRE: As Mohammed bin Salman continues to disrupt the status quo, his critics are growing.

Greg Myre, NPR News, Washington.