经济学人:六大经济学原理:通胀与失业的关系(1)

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　　But the “Phillips curve”, as it came to be known, owes its name to a study in 1958 by William Phillips of the London School of Economics. 但是，作为它后来为人所熟知的“菲利普斯曲线”(Phillips curve)，却是得名于伦敦政治经济学院的威廉·菲利普斯在1958年进行的一项研究。

　　In his study, Phillips traced the relationship between unemployment and wage growth in Britain over the course of almost a century. 在他的研究中，菲利普斯梳理了英国在将近一个世纪的时间中的失业和工资增长之间的关系。

　　He found that from 1861 to 1957 the relationship had been pretty stable: the lower the unemployment rate, the faster wages rose. 他发现，在1861年到1957年间，这种关系是相当稳定的：失业率越低，工资涨得越快。

　　This was remarkable¹, given the changes over that period in workers' rights. 鉴于工人权利在那段时间中的变化，这是不同寻常的。

　　In 1861 most workers could not vote; by 1957 the post-war Labour government had nationalised much of the economy. 大多数工人在1861年时还不能投票；到了1957年，战后的工党政府已经国有化了经济体的巨大多数部门。

　　Paul Samuelson and Robert Solow, two other economic luminaries², subsequently investigated the relationship in America, and reported that there was no such stability there. 随后，另外两位经济学泰斗——保罗·萨缪尔森(Paul Samuelson )和罗伯特·索洛(Robert Solow)调查了这种关系在美国的情况。他们在报告中称，那里没有这种稳定性。

　　The Phillips curve shifted around. 菲利普斯曲线反转了。

　　But in any given era, Samuelson and Solow wrote, “wage rates do tend to rise when the labour market is tight, and the tighter the faster.” 但是，萨缪尔森和索洛写道，在任何给定时代，“工资比率在劳动力市场紧缩时的确往往是上升的，而且是越紧缩越快。”

　　They described the relationship as a "menu", encouraging the idea that the job of Keynesian policymakers was to pick a point on the curve that best aligned³ with their preferences. 他们把这种关系描绘成一份“菜单”，鼓励了凯恩斯主义决策者的工作是在与其偏好最一致的曲线上找一个点的观点。

　　How low unemployment could fall, in other words, depended only on what level of inflation was tolerable (for rising wages would surely end up lifting prices, too). 也就是说，失业可能跌倒多低，仅仅取决于什么水平的通胀是可以容忍的(因为不断上涨的工资肯定也会导致涨起来没完的物价)。

　　It is unclear whether policymakers actually thought of the relationship between inflation and unemployment as a menu. 决策者是否真就认为通胀与失业的关系是一份菜单不得而知。

　　But the idea was prominent enough by the late 1960s to attract withering⁴ criticism. 但是，这一思想之杰出，以致到上世纪60年代末引来越来越少的批评。

　　Its two main detractors, Edmund Phelps and Milton Friedman, would each go on to win a Nobel prize. 它的两为主要的批评者——埃德蒙·菲尔普斯(Edmund Phelps)和米尔顿·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)——每一个人都会继而获得一次诺贝尔奖。

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