经济学人:六大经济学原理:菲利普斯曲线(2)

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　　The “stagflation” of the 1970s killed off the idea of a stable Phillips curve. 上世纪70年代“滞张”(stagflation)曾一度让稳定的菲利普斯曲线的思想销声匿迹。

　　Successive shocks to oil prices, in 1973 and 1979, sent both inflation and unemployment surging. 1973年和1979年对油价的接二连三的冲击令通胀和失业双双飙升。

　　In 1975 both were above 8%; in 1980 inflation hit 13.5% even as unemployment exceeded 7%. 1975年，两者双双高于8%；1980年，通胀甚至在纵然失业超过7%的情况下达到了13.5%。

　　The idea of the NAIRU looked a little shaky, too; inflation was meant to fall so long as unemployment was too high. NAIRU的思想也看上去有点动摇了；只要失业过高，通胀本来一定是会下跌的。

　　But Friedman's followers¹ could argue that bad supply-side policies, in conjunction with the oil-price shocks, had pushed the NAIRU up. 但是，弗里德曼的追随者却可能指出，差劲的供给侧政策，加之油价冲击波，推高了NAIRU。

　　Around the same time, however, the concept of the NAIRU came under attack from theorists. 然而，在大至同一时间，NAIRU的概念却遭到了来自理论专家们的攻击。

　　It was built, in part, on the idea that inflation expectations are “adaptive” : to predict inflation, firms and workers look at its current value. 这种攻击部分地基于通胀预期是“自适应的”(adaptive)观点。

　　But the doctrine² of “rational expectations” decreed that firms and consumers would, to the greatest extent possible, anticipate policymakers' actions. 即，为预测通胀，公司和工人关心的通胀的当前价值。但是，“理性预期”的原则断定，公司和消费者会在可能的最大限度内预测决策者的行动。

　　Whenever the public suspected that central bankers would try to push employment below the natural rate, inflation would rise immediately. 当公众怀疑央行银行家试图把就业率推低至自然比率之下时，通胀立刻就会上升。

　　On the other hand, a credible³ promise not to seek any unsustainable jobs booms should keep inflation under control, simply by “anchoring” expectations. 从另一个角度来说，某种可信的不去寻求任何不可持续的就业繁荣的承诺，单靠“锚定”预期，应当能让通胀俯首帖耳。

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