经济学人:周期轮回:下一场金融危机或被央行触发(1)

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　　Buttonwood: When the cycle turns 梧桐树专栏：周期轮回

　　The next financial crisis may be triggered by central banks. 下一场金融危机或被央行触发。

　　As with London buses, don't worry if you miss a financial crisis; another will be along shortly. 如同伦敦公交车一样，如果错过了一场金融危机，别担心；下一场很快就会来。

　　The latest study on long-term asset returns from Deutsche Bank shows that crises in developed markets have become much more common in recent decades. 来自德意志银行的有关长期资产回报的最新研究表明，在发达国家，危机在近几十年中已经变得越来越常见了。

　　That does not bode¹ well. 这不是好兆头。

　　Deutsche defines a crisis as a period when a country suffers one of the following: a 15% annual decline in equities;  德意志银行把危机定义为国家遭受下列情况之一时的一段时间：股票15%的年化下跌；

　　a 10% fall in its currency or its government bonds; a default on its national debt; or a period of double-digit inflation. 货币或政府债券10%的下跌；国家债务违约；或者是一段两位数的通胀时期。

　　During the 19th century, only occasionally did more than half of countries for which there are data suffer such a shock in a single year. 19世纪期间，只有偶尔超过半数的有数据的国家在单独一年中遭受一次这样的冲击。

　　But since the 1980s, in numerous years more than half of them have been in a financial crisis of some kind. 但是，自上世纪80年代以来，在很多年中，这些国家中的一半以上都处于某种金融危机之中。

　　The main reason for this, argues Deutsche, is the monetary² system. 德意志银行指出，这方面的罪魁祸首是货币体系。

　　Under the gold standard and its successor, the Bretton Woods system of fixed³ exchange rates, the amount of credit creation was limited. 在金本位制及其后续者——布雷顿森林体系的固定汇率之下，信用创造的总量是有限的。

　　A country that expanded its money supply too quickly would suffer a trade deficit⁴ and pressure on its currency's exchange rate;  太快地扩张了货币供给的国家会遭受贸易赤字之苦以及对其货币汇率的压力；

　　the government would react by slamming on the monetary brakes. 政府会应之以货币政策的急刹车。

　　The result was that it was harder for financial bubbles to inflate⁵. 结果是，金融泡沫越来越难膨胀。

　　But since the early 1970s more countries have moved to a floating exchange-rate system. 但是，自上世纪70年代初以来，更多的国家转向了浮动汇率体系。

　　This gives governments the flexibility⁶ to deal with an economic crisis, and means they do not have to subordinate other policy goals to maintaining a currency peg⁷. 这赋予政府应对经济危机的灵活性，而且还意味着他们不必为了维持货币挂钩而屈从于其他政策目标。

　　It has also created a trend towards greater trade imbalances, which no longer constrain⁸ policymakers—the currency is often allowed to take the strain. 它还造成了一种走向更大的贸易不平衡的趋势，这种趋势不再去束缚决策者——货币经常受命来承担这种扭曲。

　　Similarly, government debt has risen steadily⁹ as a proportion of GDP since the mid-1970s. 同样地，作为GDP的一部分的政府债务自上世纪70年代中期以来一直在稳步上升。

　　There has been little pressure from the markets to balance the budget; Japan has had a deficit every year since 1966, and France since 1993. 很少有来自市场以平衡预算的压力；自1966年以来，日本年年赤字。自1993年以来，法国也是如此。

　　Italy has managed just one year of surplus since 1950. 自1950年以来，意大利用尽浑身解数，才只有一年盈余。

　　In the developed world, consumers and companies have also taken on more debt. 在发达国家，消费者和公司也背上了更多债务。

　　The result has been a cycle of credit expansion and collapse¹⁰. 结果是一轮债务扩张和破灭的周期。

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