经济学人:周期轮回:下一场金融危机或被央行触发(2)

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　　From time to time, however, lenders lose faith in borrowers' ability to repay and stop lending;  然而，不时地，债权人失去对债务人还本付息并停止举债的信心；

　　a fire sale of assets can follow, further weakening the belief in the creditworthiness of borrowers. 一轮资产贱卖可能随之而来，进一步摧毁了对举债人信誉的信心。

　　Central banks then step in to cut interest rates or (since 2008) to buy assets directly. 之后，各国央行纷纷介入，或是降低利率，或是（自2008年以来）直接购入资产。

　　This brings the crisis to a temporary halt but each cycle seems to result in higher debt levels and asset prices. 这让危机得以暂时喘息，但是，每一轮周期似乎都以越来越高的债务水平和资产价格而收场。

　　The combined valuation of bonds and equities¹ in the developed world is higher than ever before. 发达国家的债券和股票的综合估值比之前什么时候都高。

　　All this suggests that the financial system could be due another crisis. 这一切表明，金融体系可能是在劫难逃的下一场危机。

　　Deutsche makes several suggestions as to what might cause one, from a debt-related crash in China, through the rise of populist political parties to the problem of illiquidity in bond markets. 德意志银行对什么可能造成下一场危机提出多个建议，从中国方面的一场与债务有关的崩溃，经由各种民粹主义政党的兴起，到债券市场流动性不足的问题。

　　The most likely trigger for a sell-off is the withdrawal² of support by central banks;  最有可能的抛售导火索是来自各国央行的对于支持的撤回；

　　after all, the monetary³ authorities are generally credited with having saved the global economy and markets in 2009. 毕竟，从总体上来说，各国货币当局被认为在2009年拯救是全球经济和市场。

　　In America the Federal Reserve is pushing up interest rates and reducing the size of its balance-sheet;  在美国，美联储正在推高利率并降低资产负债表的规模；

　　the European Central Bank seems likely to cut the scale of its asset purchases next year;  欧洲央行似乎有可能消减下一年度的资产购买规模；

　　the Bank of England might even increase rates for the first time in more than a decade. 英格兰银行甚至有可能十多年来第一次升息。

　　Central banks are well aware of the dangers, of course; that is why interest rates are still so low, even though developed economies have been growing for several years. 当然，各国央行对危险有着清醒的认识；这就是即便发达经济体这几年一直在增长，利率为什么还是这么低的原因。

　　But the process of withdrawing stimulus⁴ is tricky⁵. 但是，撤回刺激的过程存在难度。

　　A big sell-off in the government-bond markets in 1994 started when the Fed tightened⁶ policy after a period when rates were kept low during the savings-and-loan crisis. 1994年的一场政府债券市场的大规模抛售就是在美联储收紧了政策之际开始的，当时正值y一轮利率在那场储蓄和借贷危机中被维持在低位的周期之后。

　　The high level of asset prices means that any kind of return to “normal” valuation levels would constitute a crisis, on Deutsche's definition. 根据德意志银行的定义，高高在上的资产价格水平意味着向着“正常”估值水平的任何形式的回归都会造成一场危机。

　　That might mean that central banks are forced to change course and loosen policy again. 这可能表明，各国央行被迫转向并再次放宽政策。

　　But the process would take a little time; central banks will not want to appear too enslaved to the markets. 但是，这一过程会占用很少的时间；央行不想似乎过于受制于市场。

　　Many investors⁷ will want to ride out the volatility⁸; that has been a winning strategy in the past. 许多投资者想要安然度过这波惊涛骇浪；过去曾有过一种制胜策略。

　　The problems will emerge among those investors who have borrowed money to buy assets—in America the volume of such debt exceeds the level reached in 2008. 问题将出现在那些用借来的钱购买资产的人之中——在美国，这类债务的总量远远超过2008年曾经达到的水平。

　　The big question is which is the most vulnerable asset class. 大问题是，哪一类是最脆弱的资产类别。

　　American mortgage-backed securities were the killers⁹ in 2008; it is bound to be something different this time round. 美国的抵押证券曾在2008年充当过杀手；这一次，肯定会是某种不一样的东西。

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