经济学人:欧元区经济:保持信心(3)

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Indeed, the Federal Reserve's experience of tightening² policy should caution the ECB against ending stimulus³ too soon. 确实，美联储紧缩政策的经历应该给ECB敲响警钟，警惕过早地停止刺激。

When America's rate-setters halted their quantitative-easing programme in 2014, 2014年当美国的利率制定者停止了他们的“量化宽松”计划时，

they put the long-term unemployment rate—towards which joblessness can fall without pushing up inflation—at 5.2-5.5%. 他们预计长期失业率—失业可以在不增加通货膨胀的情况下下降—会在5.2%到5.5%之间。

But since then unemployment has fallen much further without sharp price rises. 但自那时起，失业率已经在没有出现价格猛涨的情况下进一步下降。

The Fed learnt that the economy had more room to expand safely than it expected; in hindsight, it could probably have kept interest rates lower for longer. 美联储了解到，相较预期而言，经济有着更大的安全发展空间；事后，它或许会将利率长期维持在更低水平。

Recent statements by Mr Draghi and his colleagues, however, suggest that the ECB will stick to its plan for now. 但德拉吉先生及同事的近期声明表明ECB将暂时坚持自己的计划。

It sees the growth slowdown as modest, and a pickup⁴ in core inflation as imminent⁵. 它认为增长放缓是适度的，并且核心通货膨胀的好转即将来临。

Mr Benito reckons, however, that disappointing data releases in coming months could eventually prompt a rethink. 但贝尼托先生认为未来几个月发布的数据令人失望且最终会促使他们重新审视。

If it does decide to loosen policy, the ECB will not find it easy to extend quantitative-easing. 如果ECB确要决定放松政策，那么它将发现扩展量化宽松并不容易。

The central bank's holdings of German bonds is nearing its self-imposed limit of a third of a member's debt stock. 央行所持的德国债券几近成员国债务股三分之一的自我限度。

Instead, policymakers would probably guide markets to expect a further delay before interest rates rise. 相反，决策者或许将指导市场期望在利率增长前有一次进一步的延期。

This comes with its own problem, however: Mr Draghi is leaving in October 2019, and his successor may have different ideas. 但这样也存在问题：德拉吉先生将于2019年10月离职，他的接班人或许会有不同的想法。

ECB-watchers think another option may be an extension to its targeted long-term repo operations, 欧洲央行观察家认为另一个选择或许是延长其目标长期购回债券操作，

which offer banks cheap funding in return for lending to households and firms. That would benefit Italian banks most. 这将为银行提供低成本资金以换取房屋和公司借贷。意大利银行将成为最大受益者。

They are heavy users of the scheme and the stand-off with Brussels has pushed up their borrowing costs. 他们是该计划的重度使用者，与比利时的僵局已经抬高了他们的借贷成本。

But to help them would be to ease the market pressure on Italy that might otherwise encourage fiscal⁶ rectitude. 但帮助他们就是要缓和意大利的市场压力，或许能鼓励财政清廉。

The agony of setting monetary⁷ policy only gets worse when politics comes into play. 当政治登场时，制定货币政策的痛苦只会愈演愈烈。

 

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