经济学人:脸书的未来:下一个雅虎？(3)

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but it knows that it needs to be cautious about introducing ads in an environment where people go for private communication. 但脸书知道在人人重视隐私的环境中，对引入的广告要非常小心。

This transition away from public consumption of content on social networks to more private interactions is a substantial vulnerability for Facebook's business. 从社交媒体内容到更加私密的互动，公众消费的转变对脸书业务而言是一个实质性的弱势。

Mr Zuckerberg has acknowledged as much, comparing this transition to Facebook's earlier shift from desktop² computers to mobile 扎克伯格也承认这一点，并把这种转变比作脸书从台式机转向手机的早期变化

and predicting that making money from stories and messaging "will take some time, and our revenue growth may be slower". 他还预测要从故事和信息中获取利润“还需要一些时间，我们的收入增长将会放缓”。

It is unproven whether these new products can ever be as lucrative³ as Facebook's core offerings. 新的产品是否会像脸书的核心产品一样盈利还未印证。

Facebook's political controversies⁴ have not yet dented⁵ advertisers' enthusiasm for its platforms but that may also change in the coming year. 脸书的政治争议并未减少广告商对这个平台的热情，但未来或许也会发生变化。

Many advertisers have long felt that Facebook is arrogant⁶. Marketers with massive budgets are told to travel to its headquarters in Menlo Park, 很多广告商长久以来都认为脸书很傲慢。手握大笔预算的市场营销者被告知要去门洛帕克的公司总部拜访

rather than staff volunteering to come to them, as is typical in the ad-sales world. 而不是让员工主动登门拜访他们，就像广告销售界的传统那样。

Such gripes aside, the marketing⁷ industry has two principal complaints. 先不提这类抱怨，市场行业还有两个主要的抱怨。

One is that Facebook is not working as well for them as it used to in terms of users engaging with their ads (even though it is raising its prices). 一个是脸书在用户参与广告互动方面没以前做得那么好了（但收费一直在涨）。

The second is that it misleads its customers. Brian Wieser of Pivotal Research in New York, for example, has pointed⁸ out to the company 第二个是它误导了客户。例如纽约的Pivotal Research的布莱恩·维瑟指出

that it was incorrectly promising⁹ advertisers that it could reach more 18-34-year-olds in America than actually exist there. 公司错误地向广告商承诺，将有多少位18到34岁的美区用户将看到他们的广告，但实际上美国该年龄段没有那么多人。

Facebook has still not removed the claim, despite a class-action lawsuit¹⁰ against the firm for allegedly padding its audience numbers. 脸书仍未删除该承诺，即便脸书因夸大用户人数而遭集体诉讼。

A senior marketer for a large American bank says Facebook has made mistakes on measuring engagement, reach, views and other data for no fewer than 43 products. 一家大型美国银行的高级市场营销人员表示脸书在对不少于43个产品的用户参与、覆盖、观看和其他数据上犯了错误。

All of the mistakes, he notes, worked in the social-networking giant's favour. 他强调所有的错误都对这个社交网络巨头有利。

"If these were true errors, wouldn't you expect at least half to benefit marketers?" he asks. “如果这些错误都是真的，是不是至少有一半都将对市场营销人员有利呢？”他问道。

He expects to reduce how much his firm spends on Facebook and predicts that other marketers will as well next year. 他预计将减少自己的银行对脸书的投入并预测其他的市场营销者明年也将这么做。

At the same time that advertisers' faith in Facebook has been shaken, politicians in Washington are running out of patience with the company. 同时广告商对脸书的信任已经动摇，华盛顿的政治家们对这家公司的耐心将要耗尽。

It seems unlikely that a new law will be introduced that significantly curbs¹¹ Facebook's activities. 似乎不太可能引入一条新的法律限制脸书的行为。

But lawmakers' scrutiny¹² of the firm is causing it to be more cautious about 但立法者对公司的监视让公司在使用数据定位广告

how it uses data for targeting advertisements and about what information it makes available to outsiders. 以及在对外部公司提供信息时更加的谨慎。

That will further diminish its attractiveness in the eyes of marketers. 这将进一步减少其在市场营销者眼中的吸引力。

Mr Zuckerberg and Ms Sandberg are under pressure to prove to users and advertisers that Facebook is not only trustworthy but worthy¹³ of their time and money. 扎克伯格和桑德伯格正处于重压之下，他们要向用户和广告商证明脸书不仅值得他们的信赖，也值得他们时间和金钱的投入。

If they cannot do so, and the company's share price continues its slide, it is possible that Ms Sandberg will be replaced in the next year. 如果他们做不到，公司的股价就会继续下滑，有很能桑德伯格明年将被替换掉。

Mr Zuckerberg controls the majority of voting shares and is unlikely to go. He will doubtless have thoughts about Yahoo's sorry tale. 扎克伯格控制着公司的绝大多数投票权，他不可能离开。毫无疑问，他将想到雅虎抱憾的故事。

The onus¹⁴ is on him to show employees, advertisers and shareholders¹⁵ that Facebook won't repeat it. 他有责任向员工、广告商和股东展示脸书不会重蹈覆辙。

 

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