经济学人:美国货币政策:自查(1)

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American monetary¹ policy: Check yourself 美国货币政策：自查

The Federal Reserve should respond to lower inflation by holding interest rates steady. 美联储应该通过稳定利率不变来应对过低的通货膨胀率。

No statement from the Federal Reserve is complete without a promise to make decisions based on the data. 在美联储的声明中，并未完全承诺以这些数据作为决策依据。

In each of the past two years, a souring outlook for the world economy prompted the Fed to delay interest-rate rises. 在过去两年中，每年的世界经济前景的恶化促使美联储延缓加息。

And quite right, too. 这种行为非常正确。

Yet if the Fed raises rates on June 14th in the face of low inflation, as it has strongly hinted,  然而，如果美联储在面对低通胀率的情况下于6月14日像曾经暗示的那样进行加息，

it would bring into question its commitment both to the data and also to its 2% inflation target. 那么它关于基于数据制定政策和维持2%以下通胀率的承诺将会受到质疑。

The central bank has raised rates three times since December 2015 (the latest rise came in March). 2015年12月以来，中央银行已经进行了三次加息（上一次是在今年三月）。

It is good that monetary policy is a little tighter than it was back then. The unemployment rate, at 4.3%, is lower than at any time since early 2001. 好的作用是货币政策比过去更紧缩，失业率降到了4.3%，达到2001年以来最低点。

A broad range of earnings² data show a modest pickup³ in wage growth. 大范围的营收数据显示工资正在温和增长。

The Fed is right to think that it is better to slow the economy gradually than be forced to bring it to a screeching⁴ halt later, if wage and price rises get out of hand. 美联储的想法完全没错，逐渐放缓经济比之后当工资和物价突然失控被迫急刹车来得好。

The rate increases to date have been reasonable insurance against an inflationary surge. 目前为止，加息已经成为应对通胀率飙升的一种合理的保险方式。

But no such surge has yet struck. 但是目前为止通胀飙升还从未发生。

Unexpectedly low inflation in both March and April has left consumer prices no higher than they were in January. 三四月份出乎意料的低通胀率使消费价格比一月更低。

According to the Fed's preferred index, core inflation—that is, excluding volatile⁵ food and energy prices—has fallen to 1.5%, down from 1.8% earlier this year.  根据美联储惯用的核心通胀指数(一种排除了价格不稳定的食物与能源价格的指数)，通胀率已经从年初的1.8%降到了1.5%，

It is now well below the 2% target. 并且如今稳定的保持在2%的目标以下。

Nor does a surge seem imminent⁶. 通胀飙升看起来并不是迫在眉睫的问题。

For a while, Donald Trump's promises to cut taxes and spend freely on infrastructure⁷ made higher rates appear all the wiser. 短时间内，特朗普政府做出的关于减税和鼓励在基础设施建设上自由支出的承诺使得高利率显得十分明智。

But fiscal⁸ stimulus⁹ looks less likely by the week. 但是财政刺激看起来不太可能在本周出现。

Tax cuts are stuck in the legislative¹⁰ queue behind health-care reform, and Mr Trump's administration has tied itself in knots over whether it will increase the deficit¹¹. 减税政策继医保改革之后也进入了立法队列里，特朗普政府纠结于减税是否会加大赤字。

Meanwhile, the current “infrastructure week” in Washington may generate more headlines than proper plans. 于此同时，当前的“华盛顿基础设施周”只会制造更多的新闻头条而不是产生更合理的计划。

Even so, the Fed is expected to go ahead and raise rates this month. 即便如此，美联储预计还会在本月继续加息。

The markets think there is a 90% probability of an increase of 25 basis points (hundredths of a percentage point). 市场认为美联储这次有90%的可能性上调25个基准点（0.01个百分点）。

 

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