经济学人:新版脱欧计划使英国政治陷入混乱(2)

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They say she has still not made clear how Britain plans to avoid a hard border in Ireland, 欧洲领导人认为特蕾莎·梅还没弄清楚如何避免以“硬边界”形式解决爱尔兰边境问题，

something they insist is settled before any deal can be signed. 领导人们坚持如果爱尔兰边境问题没有解决，任何其他交易都免谈。

Britain is likely to be told that, if it wants the benefits of the single market for goods, it must seek membership of the whole thing— 英国很可能收到这样的讯息：如果想得到单一货物市场的利益，必须成为单一市场成员——

which in turn means observing other rules, including free movement of labour. 这就意味着要依次遵守其它规则，包括劳动力自由流动。

The EU will probably want ongoing¹ payments into its budget, too. 欧盟可能也想要英国支付预算款项。

This will lead to a Brexit that satisfies almost nobody. 这样一来，脱欧不会让任何人满意。

Hardline Brexiteers already feel betrayed. 强硬脱欧派已经感觉到背叛。

This week Mr Johnson complained that Britain would be subject to EU laws without having a say in how they were made, 本周，约翰逊先生抱怨称，英国将不得不遵守欧盟法律，但对这些法律的制定却没有发言权，

and that obeying these rules would make it harder to do trade deals with other countries. 而遵守这些规则将使英国更难与其他国家达成贸易协议。

That is true, 这一点毋庸置疑，

and adding in budget payments and free movement will surely prompt further cabinet resignations and backbench rebellions. 如果增加预算支出和允许劳动力自由流动，肯定会让更多内阁成员辞职，后座议员反抗。

Remainers are hardly jubilant, either. 而留欧派也不怎么满意。

Many, including this newspaper, see ending up in a situation similar to Norway, 很多人，包括本刊，都认为英国脱欧结局会和挪威类似，

bound to the EU but with little say in how it works, as the best Brexit possible— 被欧盟束缚，但是对于欧盟的运作却没有发言权——

and certainly less bad than the hard sort, which would cause enduring harm to the country's prosperity. 比强硬脱欧结果要好，强硬脱欧会损害国家发展。

But a soft Brexit is so obviously worse than what Britain has today as a member of the EU that it would underline more clearly than ever the folly² of leaving. 但是脱欧再怎么温和，都不如英国目前的现状，这将比以往更能表明脱欧的愚蠢。

As a result Mrs May might struggle to get a deal through Parliament, even though most MPs probably favour a soft Brexit. 因此，即使大多数议员支持温和脱欧，特蕾莎·梅还是想努力通过议会达成协议。

Although pragmatic Brexiteers and Remainers may back her, 尽管务实退欧派和留欧派可能会支持她，

hardliners may be tempted³ to hold out for either a harder deal or for stopping Brexit altogether. 但强硬派更倾向于要么强硬脱欧，要么终止整盘计划。

Her task will be further complicated by Labour under Jeremy Corbyn, which has yet to produce its own coherent plan. 在杰里米·科尔宾的领导下，工党尚未制定出自己的连贯计划，这将使特蕾莎·梅的任务变得更加复杂。

It is likely to put party before country 工党很可能将自身党派置于国家前面，

by voting against whatever deal Mrs May brings home, 不管特蕾莎·梅给出怎样的提议都会投票反对，

in the hope of bringing down the government. 试图借力推翻政府。

That means even a small rebellion by Tory hardliners could be enough to defeat the plan. 这就意味着哪怕是保守党强硬派出现细微异动，也会导致特蕾莎·梅满盘皆输。

 

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