VOA常速英语2019--特朗普:对付伊朗靠死磕 看谁最先耗不住

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Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said Monday that Iran is acting¹ according to its rights stipulated² in the international agreement which to Trump³ administration abandoned last year. Iran has crossed 300 kilogram limit as we’ve announced earlier. We said very clearly what we were going to do and are acting on it. We considered our right based on the international agreement. Iranian leaders are trying to gain leverage⁴ in their struggle to get relief from US imposed sanctions, said analyst⁵ Catherine Bauer. They’re not necessarily looking for a way to export their low enriched uranium. They’re looking for a way to get some economic relief, to gain some leverage and hopefully that means they want to re-enter negotiations⁶ but I don’t think that’s going to happen anytime soon. The Trump administration has imposed tough economic sanctions on Iran to cripple its economy and force it to agree to renegotiating the nuclear deal that US President Donald Trump considers inadequate⁷.

伊朗外长扎里夫周一表示，伊朗现在采取的行动都是国际协定中赋予它的权利，而那项协定，特朗普政府去年退出了。伊朗已经超过了我们此前设定的300公斤的上限。我们已明确表示过我们要做这件事，而且我们正在做。我们考量自己权利的基础是国际核协定。伊朗多位领导人正在再次努力，为自己争取筹码，从而减轻美国施加的制裁，分析师凯瑟琳如是说道。想办法出口低浓缩铀并不是必要的。伊朗是希望能获得经济救济，获得一些筹码。鉴于此，我们有希望看到伊朗重新坐上谈判桌，但我认为短时间内无法见到这一天到来。特朗普政府对伊朗施加了严厉的经济制裁，目的是削弱伊朗经济，迫使伊朗重新商定核协议，因为特朗普认为核协议内容的力度不够大。

Iran is not likely to do that in the near future, says analyst Alan Makovsky. I think that Iran has the will with all that they will not do that certainly not under the Trump administration. I think they’re hoping Trump will be defeated in 2020, and perhaps they’ll get a fresh start. Makovsky says it would be a major loss of face for Iran to return to negotiations. Iran is more likely to engage in provocations⁸ such as arming Houthi rebels in Yemen and staging attacks through third parties. Using proxies⁹ is one of Iran’s most preferred ways of responding to sanctions and to other policies of the United States which it objects-- because use of proxies gives them a certain plausible¹⁰ deniability. Both Iran and the United States have said they do not want war. U.S. President Donald Trump has been pressured by those who want a military response to Iran’s provocations and those who urge de-escalation. He says he is in no hurry to respond. Sanctions to Iran…and...I’m in no rush. I’m in no rush with Iran. I’m never in a rush, if you’re in a rush to get yourself in trouble. Analysts¹¹ say it is not clear if and when the sanctions will produce the desired effect. Makovsky pointed¹² out that Iraq under Saddam Hussein had been able to hold out. North Korea has carried out six nuclear arms tests despite years of international sanctions.

伊朗不太可能在短期内重商核协议，分析师艾伦如是说道。我认为伊朗希望特朗普2020年能落选，这样或许伊朗能有个新的开始。艾伦表示，重回谈判桌对伊朗来说太没面子了。伊朗更有可能的做法是进行挑衅，比如给也门的胡塞叛军提供武装，以及通过第三方来发动袭击。通过代理行事是伊朗应对制裁等伊朗反对的美国政策时最喜欢的一种方式，因为代理的出面让伊朗有可能甩干净责任。伊朗和美国都曾表示不想宣战。美国总统特朗普一直受到压力，因为有些人希望能对伊朗的挑衅行为采取军事回应，而有些人则希望冲突不要升级。特朗普表示自己并不急于回应。给伊朗施加的制裁就好，我不急于回应什么，在伊朗问题上，我并不着急，而且也从来没着急过。如果你们急于给自己找麻烦的话，那我也没什么好说。一些分析师认为，制裁不一定会有效果，就算有效果，也不知道是否如预期一般。艾伦指出，萨达姆政府控制下的伊拉克之前也撑了很久。朝鲜虽然也遭受过多年的国际制裁，但依然进行了6次核武器试验。