VOA常速英语2019--分析师：伊朗不太可能重返核谈判

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Analysts¹: Iran Unlikely to Return to Nuclear Negotiations³

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said Monday that Iran is acting⁴ according to its rights stipulated⁵ in the international agreement which to Trump⁶ administration abandoned last year.Iran has crossed 300 kilogram limit as we’ve announced earlier.We said very clearly what we were going to do and are acting on it.We considered our right based on the international agreement.Iranian leaders are trying to gain leverage⁷ in their struggle to get relief from US imposed sanctions, said analyst² Catherine Bauer.They’re not necessarily looking for a way to export their low enriched uranium.They’re looking for a way to get some economic relief, to gain some leverage and hopefully that means they want to re-enter negotiations but I don’t think that’s going to happen anytime soon.The Trump administration has imposed tough economic sanctions on Iran to cripple its economy and force it to agree to renegotiating the nuclear deal that US President Donald Trump considers inadequate⁸.

伊朗外交部长Javad Zarif周一表示，伊朗正按照国际协议规定的权利行事，但是特朗普政府已于去年终止了该协议。伊朗已经超过了我们早些时候宣布的300公斤的限制。我们已经说得非常清楚我们接下去要做什么，我们也正在做。基于国际协议，我们考虑了我们的权利。分析师Catherine Bauer表示，伊朗领导人试图在这场博弈中获得支持，从而在美国制裁中缓口气。他们不一定在寻找出口低浓缩铀的方法。他们在努力获得经济救助、政治支持，希望这意味着他们想要重新进入谈判，但我觉得可能性不大。为了削弱伊朗的经济，特朗普政府已经对伊朗实施了严厉的经济制裁，并且迫使伊朗同意重新对美国总统特朗普认为不足的核协议开启谈判。

Iran is not likely to do that in the near future, says analyst Alan Makovsky.I think that Iran has the will with all that they will not do that certainly not under the Trump administration.I think they’re hoping Trump will be defeated in 2020, and perhaps they’ll get a fresh start.Makovsky says it would be a major loss of face for Iran to return to negotiations.Iran is more likely to engage in provocations⁹ such as arming Houthi rebels in Yemen and staging attacks through third parties.Using proxies¹⁰ is one of Iran’s most preferred ways of responding to sanctions and to other policies of the United States which it objects-- because use of proxies gives them a certain plausible¹¹ deniability.Both Iran and the United States have said they do not want war.U.S. president Donald Trump has been pressured by those who want a military response to Iran’s provocations and those who urge de-escalation.He says he is in no hurry to respond.Sanctions to Iran…and...I’m in no rush. I’m in no rush with Iran.I’m never in a rush. If you’re in a rush to get yourself in trouble.Analysts say it is not clear if and when the sanctions will produce the desired effect.Makovsky pointed¹² out that Iraq under Saddam Hussein had been able to hold out. North Korea has carried out six nuclear arms tests despite years of international sanctions.

分析师Alan Makovsky表示，伊朗最近不大可能这么做。我认为，伊朗决不会跟着特朗普政府的意愿行事。我觉得，他们希望特朗普在2020年大选下台，也许他们就有一个新的开始。Makovsky表示，如果伊朗重回谈判，会面临巨大的损失。伊朗更可能参与一些挑衅的行为，比如也门武装胡塞叛乱分子或者通过第三方进行攻击。使用代理是伊朗应对制裁和其反对的美国其他政策的最佳方式之一，因为使用代理让他们可以合理地解释他们的不知情。伊朗和美国都表示，他们不想要战争。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普受到了那些希望军事上挑衅伊朗和解决争端的人的压力。特朗普表示他不急于回应。对伊朗的制裁…我不着急。我不急着处理伊朗的问题。我从来没急过。如果你急着,就会自找麻烦。分析师表示，对于制裁是否能产生预期效果和何时产生预期的效果，目前还无从得知。Makovsky指出，萨达姆·侯赛因统治下的伊拉克能够坚持下去。虽然国际制裁有了多年，朝鲜还是进行了六次核武器试验。