VOA新闻杂志2023 阿根廷新总统上任面临高通胀和经济低迷

（单词翻译）

New Argentine’s President Must Deal with Inflation, Weak Economy

阿根廷新总统上任面临高通胀和经济低迷

Libertarian Party politician Javier Milei has won Argentina's presidential election with 56 percent of the vote.

自由党政治家哈维尔·米莱以56%的选票赢得了阿根廷总统大选。

Now President-elect Milei must face the South American country's economic problems.

现在，当选总统米莱必须面对这个南美国家的经济问题。

Inflation has been measured at over 140 percent. The country lacks foreign currency for international trade, people who aim to save are selling the Argentine Peso, and a recession appears likely. About 40 percent of Argentines live in poverty.

通货膨胀率已超过140%。该国缺乏用于国际贸易的外汇，旨在储蓄的人们正在出售阿根廷比索，经济衰退似乎很可能发生。大约40%的阿根廷人生活在贫困之中。

Milei is promising¹ to close Argentina's central bank. He also supports dollarization. Dollarization means Argentina would stop using its peso and instead use the U.S. dollar for money.

米莱承诺关闭阿根廷央行。他还支持美元化。美元化意味着阿根廷将停止使用比索，转而使用美元作为货币。

Milei won a second-round of voting on Sunday with about 56 percent against opponent Sergio Massa's 44 percent.

米莱在周日的第二轮投票中以56%的得票率战胜了对手塞尔吉奥·马萨的44%。

Now he will try to turn around the economy once he takes office on December 10. Failure could lead to the country's tenth debt default, increased poverty, and possible social unrest.

现在，他将在12月10日上任后努力扭转经济形势。失败可能导致该国第十次债务违约，加剧贫困，并可能引发社会动荡。

Inflation

通货膨胀

Argentina's high inflation rate creates huge problems in its markets and for consumers. Prices change weekly. Economic experts predict a yearly rate of 185 percent inflation by the end of the year.

阿根廷的高通胀率给其市场和消费者带来了巨大的问题。价格每周都会变化。经济专家预测，到今年年底，年通货膨胀率将达到185%。

To reduce inflation, Argentina's central bank has increased the interest rate to 133 percent, which pushes people to save Argentine pesos. However, this move makes it too costly² to borrow money and hurts economic growth.

为了降低通货膨胀，阿根廷央行将利率提高到133%，这促使人们储蓄阿根廷比索。然而，此举使借贷成本过高，并损害了经济增长。

Peso controls

比索控制

Capital controls have harmed the value of Argentina's peso since a stock market crash there in 2019. However, different exchange rates for currencies of other nations have led to problems. For example, the U.S. dollar's official exchange rate is about 350 pesos per dollar, but news reports say it can trade for a far higher price under different controls.

自2019年阿根廷股市崩盘以来，资本管制损害了阿根廷比索的价值。然而，其他国家货币的不同汇率导致了问题。例如，美元的官方汇率约为每美元350比索，但新闻报道称，在不同的控制下，美元的交易价格可能会高得多。

Milei has promised to quickly undo³ capital controls and to dollarize the country's economy.

米莱承诺将迅速取消资本管制，并使该国经济美元化。

Central bank reserves

中央银行准备金

Argentina's central bank reserves of foreign currency are near their lowest level since 2006. A major drought affected⁴ the exports of important crops like soy, corn, and wheat, which used to bring in enough foreign exchange money.

阿根廷央行的外汇储备接近2006年以来的最低水平。一场严重的干旱影响了大豆、玉米和小麦等重要作物的出口，这些作物过去可以带来足够的外汇。

Low reserves threaten the country's ability to repay its debts to the International Monetary⁵ Fund (IMF) and private bondholders. It will also be difficult to pay for imported goods.

低储备威胁到该国偿还国际货币基金组织和私人债券持有者债务的能力。进口商品的付款也将很困难。

The government has agreed on an extended currency swap⁶ with China to help enable it to carry out foreign trade. Argentina also had to delay some payments to important trade partners like neighboring Brazil.

政府已同意延长与中国的货币互换，以帮助其开展对外贸易。阿根廷还不得不推迟向邻国巴西等重要贸易伙伴支付部分款项。

Recession

经济衰退

Argentina is Latin America's third-largest economy. But it is expected to shrink by two percent this year, the central bank predicted. The recession is partly being blamed on the drought that cut corn and soy crops in half.

阿根廷是拉丁美洲第三大经济体。但央行预测，今年其经济预计将萎缩2%。经济衰退的部分原因是干旱导致玉米和大豆作物减产一半。

With very high inflation, poverty will likely increase as workers' pay and savings⁷ decrease.

在通货膨胀非常高的情况下，随着工人工资和储蓄的减少，贫困可能会增加。

Possible improvement

可能的改进

Argentina, rich in important grains, natural gas, and lithium, could see an increase next year as improved weather helps crops. A new gas pipeline⁸ will reduce dependence⁹ on costly imports, and demand is rising for the lithium needed for electric vehicle batteries.

阿根廷拥有丰富的重要谷物、天然气和锂，随着天气改善有助于作物生长，明年的产量可能会增加。一条新的天然气管道将减少对昂贵进口的依赖，电动汽车电池所需的锂需求正在上升。

Soy and corn are expected to have stronger harvests, which will bring in much-needed foreign currency.

大豆和玉米预计将有更强劲的收成，这将带来急需的外汇。

Eugenio Marí is head economist¹⁰ at Libertad y Progreso Foundation. He said agriculture and oil and gas from rocks, called shale¹¹, can help the economy. The "harvest will help bring a greater flow of income in the economy, as will the greater production of (shale oil formation)," he said.

欧赫尼奥·马里是利伯塔德·普罗格雷索基金会的首席经济学家。他说，农业和来自页岩的石油和天然气可以帮助经济发展。他说：“农业丰收将有助于为经济带来更大的收入流，页岩油产量也将增加。”