商业报道(Business Channel)12-27:2008亚洲市场预测

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No,this is where everybody has been anticipated because when came out as a report almost two years ago talk about BRIC.It's basically Brazil,Russia,India and China.And this four country because given the,I mean,the people and education level and/ economic growth of this four country that definitely,you know,this four markets,everyone has anticipated them to be performing well.

OK.On that basis then,2008 we will see pretty much more of the same?
Yes,I will say 2008 is gonna be pretty much the same thing and I think we would talk about Asia's,I think maybe Vietnam has a stand of very good chance to be performing very well as well.

We are just looking at Vietnam that was a 28% compared with say India 30% to 40%,and Shanghai nearly 85%.So Vietnam underperformed at the moment why do you like it in 2008?
Vietnam is underperforming is because of the width and depth of the market because right now the entire,you know,stock exchange market capitalization is only about 20 billion dollars and given that they are still in the very premetive stage and there is a lot of room for growth.So once,you know,you will see more of the state-owned enterprises as well as the private,I will say,privately-owned company go on to be listed in Vietnam.You will be seeing a very different kind of market and also they are trying,the Vietnam's government is trying to improve the infrastructure¹ of both exchanges in H and Ho Chi Minh city.
Looking at Shanghai and India,the two best performing markets in 2007,there was talk this year,a lot of talk that certainly Shanghai was overheating.It was a bubble forming,to a less degree,India as well getting too hot.But you are saying it's still gonna be very hot next year?
Yes, because when you look at the liquidity² of the market.There's still a lot of excess money or hot money is travelling around,you know,globally and when you look at the opportunities,this take for example,the US's subprime worries and probably that's gonna lead to some economic declines because the consumers are not gonna spend and Japan isn't enough for that well.And where are you gonna put your money?Right?And given that India and China,the fundementals are still there,the economic growth is still very strong and everyone is predicting at least 10% of growth of GDP next year.And given that,you know,the fundemantal plus,there are a lot of money outfloating.So this two market will definitely be performing very well next year.

Do you think looking at the economic fundementals of the stock market the people talk about though that these two markets are probably overvalued,they are probably in a bubble situation.
I will say this is really way too early to say that bubble is forming because given that when you are in an emerging market,you tend to give them a little bit higher in terms of PE or PB ratio.That is because they were enjoying a bad growth than the developed countries.It's just like for the same kind of banks that in China you get 4.5 times PB price book,but you won't be able to get that in the States because for Citibank probably about 2.5 times price book ratio.That's about it.

Finally, how does a retailing³ investor⁴ play a market like Shanghai or India,particularly Shanghai because it's so close to outside investors⁵.
You will be able to buy some ETF exchange, trade / fund, and you are able to buy into some of the funds
that is Chinafocus and I think that would be the best way for you to participate in the market but again,you will always have to look at any of your investment on the 12-month horizon.If you were just thinking about,you know,just like trading an individual stock punting the market,sometimes that is not gonna get you the return you are hoping for.