voa标准英语2008-Analysts: Afghanistan to be Key Challenge for Ob

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US soldiers block a road as they stand guard at the site of a suicide attack in Kabul, (file photo)

The United States has 32,000 troops in Afghanistan. 18,000 are part of "Operation Enduring Freedom" - the multinational³ coalition⁴ that ousted⁵ the Taliban from power in 2001. Those forces are now engaged in counter terrorism operations.

The rest of the U.S. contingent⁶ - 14,000 men and women - is part of the 50,000 strong force led by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. NATO has been operating in Afghanistan since 2003. Its objectives are to assist the Afghan government to rebuild and stabilize⁷ the country, train the Afghan army and police and fight insurgents⁸ in southern Afghanistan, the traditional home of the Taliban.

Now U.S. military officials say the United States may double the number of troops it has in Afghanistan next year. Those troops will join the NATO force in fighting a rising Taliban insurgency⁹.

The ultimate decision on deployments to Afghanistan will be taken by President-elect Barack Obama after his inauguration¹⁰ January 20. During the presidential campaign, he said he would redeploy troops from Iraq to Afghanistan.

Lawrence Eagleburger
　

Former Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger (R) in Richmond, Va., (2008 file photo)

Former Secretary of State [1992] Lawrence Eagleburger said that is a bad idea.

"I find it difficult to conceive of a policy that withdraws from Iraq and increases our troops in Afghanistan. I agree with the second half of this proposal. But it doesn't seem to me to make a great deal of sense to be pulling them out of an area in which we are now on the path to success, at the same time that we are putting troops in Afghanistan. Frankly¹¹, I think the answer is continue what we are doing in Iraq and yes, increase our troop levels in Afghanistan and try to get other countries to contribute," said Eagleburger.

Mr. Obama has consistently said he would press other NATO countries - especially Germany - to contribute more troops to the war in Afghanistan.

James Schlesinger
　

Former secretary of defense James Schlesinger (C)at the Pentagon, (2004 file photo)

But Eagleburger and others - including former Secretary of Defense [1973-75] James Schlesinger - believe that will not happen.

"The expectation that NATO will actually do its part, which to the Americans means send more forces, is likely to be disappointed and is likely, over time, to add to ill feelings," said Schlesinger.

Many experts, including Schlesinger, said ultimately, there is no military solution in Afghanistan.

"The situation in Afghanistan continues to deteriorate¹². It is not clear that simply sending in more forces is going to reverse that," he said.

Brent Scowcroft
　

Brent Scowcroft, former U.S. National Security Adviser in Maine,(2007 file photo)

Former White House National Security Adviser [1974-77; 1989-93] Brent Scowcroft agreed.

"We need to realize that Afghanistan is not Iraq and my own sense is that there is no military solution for Afghanistan. The Russians had well over 150,000 troops there as I remember - and they were unsuccessful," he said.

The three former senior U.S. government officials believe the international community must increase its efforts in helping¹³ the Afghan government set up stable government institutions.

Brent Scowcroft said that's where the Europeans can help.

"What the Europeans can contribute, and what's badly needed in Afghanistan, is help on the civil side. The European Union is very skilled in - like the new members of the European Union - helping governments modernize¹⁴, helping them put in judicial¹⁵ systems, administrative¹⁶ systems. That's what Afghanistan badly needs. And the Europeans can make a disproportionate contribution there to make up for their less than wholehearted military contribution," he said.

Scowcroft, Eagleburger and Schlesinger agreed that the path to a stable and secure Afghanistan lies through economic development, good governance and the rule of law. But all of that can only be achieved with considerable help from the international community.