Recent public opinion surveys suggest that Democrats might be narrowing the gap with Republicans in the battle for control of Congress in the November 2 midterm elections.
The latest poll from The Washington Post and ABC News shows Republicans leading Democrats by a margin of 49 to 43 percent among likely voters. Other surveys show the parties effectively tied. It was only a month ago that Democrats trailed on that question by 10 points in several surveys, and the improvement suggests that Democrats are having some success in energizing their core supporters to vote in the election.
华盛顿邮报和美国广播公司最新的民意调查显示，共和党以49%的选民支持率领先于民主党的43%。其他的民调显示两党支持率不相上下。而仅仅一个月之前，几个民意调查都显示民主党落后10个百分点。目前的进步显示民主党在动员他们的核心支持者在中期选举中投票方面取得一些成功。
Presidential pull
The tightening in some polls might be due in part to stepped-up efforts by President Barack Obama to rally his supporters, especially younger people and minorities who turned out in huge numbers to support him in the presidential election two years ago.
一些民调显示出的两党差距不断缩小，部分原因可能是奥巴马总统加紧努力号召他的支持者们，特别是年轻人和少数族裔选民们。他们中有大量的人在两年前的总统大选中投票支持他。
"Now is not the time to lose heart," said President Obama. "Now is not the time to give up. We do not quit. And we cannot forget that this nation has been through far worse and we have come out stronger from war to depression to the great struggle for equal rights and civil rights. We do not quit!"
奥巴马说：“现在不是失去信心的时候。现在不是放弃的时候。我们不放弃。我们不能忘记这个国家经历过比现在糟糕得多的境况。我们在经历了战争、大萧条和争取平权和民权的艰苦斗争之后更加强大。我们绝不放弃!”
There are also signs of a Democratic comeback in the area of campaign fundraising. The Democratic National Committee raised $16 million for their House and Senate candidates in September alone as both major parties get ready for the final four weeks of the campaign.
也有迹象显示，民主党在竞选筹款上取得了进展。民主党全国委员会在9月份一个月就为该众议院和参议院的候选人筹集了1千6百万美元。两大党都在为最后四个星期的竞选做好准备。
High stakes
President Obama has a lot at stake in the upcoming elections. If Democrats lose control of one or both chambers of Congress, Republicans would be able to slow down or block most of the president's legislative agenda during the next two years.
11月2日的中期选举对奥巴马总统来说非常重要。如果民主党失去了众议院或参议院的控制权，或失去国会两院的控制权，在今后两年里共和党就能够减缓甚至阻止奥巴马总统的大多数立法议程。
Tom DeFrank is a longtime political analyst who writes for the New York Daily News.
为《纽约每日新闻》撰文的资深政治分析人士汤姆.德弗兰克说：
"He has basically said to Democrats, 'If you think things are not to your liking, wait to see what happens if you have a Republican Congress starting in January of next year.' And I think that has had some effect. The question is: Will it have enough effect to keep the House of Representatives from switching from Democratic control to Republican control? At the moment, I still think the odds favor a Republican takeover in the House."
“奥巴马基本上告诉民主党人说：‘如果你觉得现状不是你所喜欢的，等着瞧瞧明年1月份一个共和党主导的国会上台之后会发生什么。’我想这有一些作用。现在的问题是：它能不能有足够的作用来防止众议院由民主党多数转为共和党多数？目前看来，我认为共和党将控制众议院的机会大一些。”
GOP enthusiasm
Republicans point to other new surveys that show them with a decided advantage in enthusiasm heading into the elections. A new Gallup poll finds that half of the Republicans surveyed are very enthusiastic about voting, while only one-third of Democrats feel the same way.
共和党人则指出其他一些新的民调显示，他们在选举临近之际选民热情方面占有绝对优势。一份新的盖洛普民意调查显示，半数参加调查的共和党人对投票非常有热情，而民主党人中只有三分之一拥有同样的热情。
For months, public opinion surveys have shown a large percentage of voters eager for change in Washington and ready to take out their frustration on Democrats who hold majorities in both houses of Congress.
几个月以来的民意调查一直显示，占很大比例的选民渴望华盛顿有所改变，而且已经准备好将他们的失望发泄在民主党人身上。民主党目前在国会两院都占有多数席位。
California Republican Representative Kevin McCarthy spoke when Republicans unveiled what they call their Pledge to America - a governing agenda that includes cuts in taxes and government spending. "We are here today to tell you that we have been listening and we have heard you. We heard you loud and clear."
共和党宣布了他们所说的《向美国承诺》计划，就是一个包括削减税收和政府支出的执政纲领。加利福尼亚州共和党众议员凯文·麦卡锡在宣布这一计划时发表讲话。他说：“我们今天在这里就是要告诉你们，我们一直在倾听你们的声音，而且我们听到了。我们听得一清二楚。”
Tea Party movement
Surveys also show that Republicans are benefiting from the energy created by conservative and libertarian grassroots activists who make up the Tea Party movement, which is committed to reducing the size of government.
John Fortier, a political analyst with the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, said, "We will see that energy benefit Republicans. It will help candidates who are now running against Democrats. Some of those elected will be very strongly libertarian and anti-government. There will be a few cases where the party is pushed too far to the right to win. But in general, not very many [cases]. In general, I think the atmosphere is greatly improved for Republicans by the Tea Party."
Historical analysis
Historically, the party that controls the White House generally has lost seats in a new president's first midterm election. Analysts say opposition parties often have an advantage in the midterms because their supporters are more motivated to vote than members of the party in power.
Republican pollster and strategist Ed Goeas says, "There is a basic tendency of the American public, and you have heard me say this before, that it is easier to scream with alarm than point with pride. And so often, the out-party [i.e., opposition] is always more intense because they are focusing on those things that are scaring them as opposed to those things that people are being prideful of."
Republicans need a gain of 39 seats to retake control of the 435-member House of Representatives and they need to gain 10 seats to win back the majority in the 100-member Senate. All 435 House seats are at stake this year, along with 37 Senate seats and 37 state governorships.
共和党人需要赢得39个席位才能重新控制有435个席位的众议院，要赢得10个席位才能再次成为有100个席位的参议院里的多数派。今年的中期选举关系到众议院的所有435个席位和参议院的37个席位，以及37个州长职位。 |