VOA常速英语2013--分析家对叙和谈前景不抱希望（在线收听）

Analysts Pessimistic About Syria Peace Conference 分析家对叙和谈前景不抱希望 

WASHINGTON — U.N. officials have announced that the first Syrian peace conference will be held January 22 in Geneva, although it is not clear which opposition groups  will attend.  Some Middle East analysts doubt the conference will produce a settlement for the nearly three-year-old conflict.

For months, the United Nations has been trying to set up a peace conference but it has been delayed repeatedly due to disputes about which groups will be represented  and under what conditions.

几个月来，联合国一直试图进行和平会谈，但却因为无法确定哪些组织来作为代表和依据什么条件，其计划一再拖延。

Meanwhile, fighting rages with more than 100,000 dead and nearly nine million driven from their homes.

同时，战斗仍在继续，超过10万人被夺去生命，近900万人被迫离开家园。

The goal of the conference will be to establish a transitional governing body with full power over the military and armed groups fighting each other.

这次会议的目的就是建立过渡执政机构，拥有控制目前相互为战的军队和武装组织的权力。

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon sounded upbeat about the prospect.

联合国秘书长潘基文。

“At long last and for the first time, the Syrian government and opposition will meet at the negotiating table instead of the battlefield,” said he.

“最后叙利亚政府和反对派将首次在谈判桌上而不是战场上见面。”

But just one day after that announcement, the commander of the rebel Free Syrian Army, General Salim Idriss, said that his group will not participate in the conference  and that combat will continue, dashing hopes for a ceasefire. Charles Dunne, an analyst at Freedom House, sounded a note of skepticism.

但就在这个消息宣布一天后，自由叙利亚军指挥官Salim Idriss将军说他的组织不会参与会谈，战斗还会继续，这就令停火希望破灭。自由之家分析员查理斯·邓恩。

“There’s too much bad blood, mistrust and violence on both sides to really create conditions for a real negotiated solution. So I just don’t see it going forward  successfully,” said Dunne.

“双方之间存在的仇恨、不信任和暴力太多了，无法为真正的协商途径提供条件。所以我不认为这件事会成功。”

U.N. Special Representative for Syria Lakhdar Brahimi has led the negotiations for the peace conference and plans to forge ahead. He called it “a huge opportunity for  peace that should not be wasted.”

联合国驻叙利亚特使拉赫达尔·卜拉希米是和谈协商负责人，他准备继续推进和谈，他称这是“实现和平的大好机会，不能浪费掉。”

But the pain on the ground continues in the aftermath of repeated government airstrikes.

但在政府多次进行空袭后，地面上的伤痛还在继续。

And as government forces, aided by Hezbollah fighters, make gains in the war, analysts doubt Damascus is ready to bargain.

政府军和真主党武装分子的帮助下在战场取得成果，分析家怀疑大马士革是否准备协商。

Jim Phillips of the Heritage Foundation says battlefield advances on the part of the military make concessions by Damascus unlikely.

“Well, I think the fact that the government appears to be resurging, undermines the chances the Assad regime will negotiate in good faith,” said Phillips.

传统基金会的吉姆·菲利普斯，“我认为政府似乎在重新崛起，这样阿萨德政权真诚协商的机会就小了。”

Opposition groups have insisted that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad leave office as part of any settlement.  However, government officials say that will not happen.

反对派组织坚称将叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德退位作为任何妥协的部分条件，然而政府官员称这是不可能的。

Another strike against a successful peace conference is that rebel groups are now fighting each other.

成功和谈面临的另一不利条件是，目前叛军组织在相互为战。

Some al-Qaida linked fighters are controlling areas they have seized with the goal of establishing an Islamic government.

Charles Dunne sees the prospects as rather bleak.

一些与基地组织有关联的武装分子控制了被他们夺下的地区，其目的是建立伊斯兰政府。

“I’m pessimistic about the future of Syria. I don’t see an early end to the military conflict. I’m also increasingly pessimistic about the possibility of a  peaceful solution that will result in a stable, democratic regime,” said Dunne.

查理斯·邓恩，“我对叙利亚的前景很悲观，我认为军事冲突不会很快结束。在是否出现促成稳定、民主政权的和平解决方案的可能性方面，我越来越悲观，”

The Syrian conflict began in March 2011 in the form of peaceful protests against Assad’s autocratic rule, but then evolved into the civil war, threatening the  stability of its neighbors. 

叙利亚冲突开始于2010年3月，当时举行了反对阿萨德独裁统治的和平抗议，但然后就转化为内战，这威胁了邻国的稳定。