日本的监狱系统正因人口结构、福利缺口以及新的恶棍人群——退休惯犯——而陷入预算危机。而学者称，这些满头银发的坏蛋迫切希望坐牢。

Crime figures show that about 35 per cent of shoplifting offences are committed by people over 60. Within that age bracket, 40 per cent of repeat offenders have committed the same crime more than six times.

犯罪数据显示，约35%的入店行窃罪行由60岁以上的人犯下。在这个年龄组内，40%的惯犯犯相同罪行的次数超过6次。

There is good reason, concludes a new report, to suspect that the shoplifting crime wave in particular represents an attempt by those convicted to end up in prison — an institution that offers free food, accommodation and healthcare.

一项新报告得出结论称，有充分理由怀疑，入店行窃犯罪案件高发，尤其代表了罪犯有意进入提供免费食物、住宿以及医疗服务的监狱。

The mathematics of recidivism are gloomily compelling for the would-be convict. Even with a frugal diet and dirt-cheap accommodation, a single Japanese retiree with minimal savings has living costs more than 25 per cent higher than the meagre basic state pension of Y780,000 ($6,900) a year, according a study on the economics of elderly crime by Michael Newman of Tokyo-based research house Custom Products Research.

惯犯的盘算对于潜在罪犯来说令人沮丧地充满吸引力。由总部位于东京的研究机构Custom Products Research的迈克尔?纽曼(Michael Newman)对老年犯罪的经济分析所作的研究称，即使饮食节俭、住宿非常便宜，日本单身退休人员如果存款较少，其生活成本也比微薄的基本国家养老金（每年78万日元，合6900美元）高25%。

Even the theft of a Y200 sandwich can earn a two-year prison sentence, say academics, at an Y8.4m cost to the state.

学者们表示，即使是偷窃一份200日元的三明治，就可以换取两年的有期徒刑，给国家带来840万日元的成本。

The geriatric crime wave is accelerating, and analysts note that the Japanese prison system — newly expanded and at about 70 per cent occupancy — is being prepared for decades of increases. Between 1991 and 2013, the latest year for which the Ministry of Justice publishes figures, the number of elderly inmates in jail for repeating the same offence six times has climbed 460 per cent.

老年犯罪案件高发趋势正在加速，同时分析人士指出，最近扩大了规模、入住率约为70%的日本监狱系统，正准备好迎接未来数十年罪犯人数增加。1991年至2013年（日本法务省已发表数据的最近一个年份）期间，重复犯相同罪行超过6次的正在服刑的老年罪犯人数攀升了460%。

The surging rates of crime among the elderly disguise a darker trend than mere contempt for the law, say economists and criminologists. Retiree crime is rising more quickly than the general demographic ascent into old age that will put 40 per cent of the Japanese population over 65 by the year 2060.

经济学家和犯罪学家称，老年人犯罪率上升掩饰了一个比单纯蔑视法律更加阴暗的趋势。退休人员犯罪的上升速度超过人口老龄化趋势——到2060年40%的日本人年龄将在65岁以上。

Akio Doteuchi, a senior researcher on social development at the NLI Research Institute in Tokyo, expects the ratio of repeat offenders to continue rising.

东京日生基础研究所(NLI Research Institute)的社会发展高级研究员土堤内昭雄(Akio Doteuchi)预计，惯犯比例将继续上升。

“The social situation in Japan has forced the elderly into the need to commit crime,” he says. “The ratio of people who receive public assistance is highest since the end of the war. About 40 per cent of the elderly live alone. It’s a vicious circle. They leave prison, they don’t have money or family so they turn immediately to crime.”

“日本的社会形势迫使老年人不得不走向犯罪，”他称，“如今接受社会救助的人口比例达到战后以来最高水平。约有40%的老年人独自生活。这是一个恶性循环。出狱后，他们既没有钱也没有家人，因此他们会立即再次犯罪。”

The crime figures, he adds, expose the strained calculus of the government’s welfare spending as the world’s second-biggest economy ages. Prison, no matter how the spreadsheets are run, is a woefully inefficient way for the government to target welfare spending at those who most need it.

他补充称，犯罪数据显示出，随着全球第三大经济体人口老龄化加剧，日本政府在福利支出方面捉襟见肘。无论电子数据表如何运作，监狱都是政府把福利支出对准最需要帮助的群体的效率极其低下的方式。

Attempts to find ways to release elderly prisoners early have encountered insurmountable legal problems, Mr Doteuchi says, and the prison system as a whole will eventually be overrun by elderly inmates.

土堤内昭雄称，设法提早释放老年犯的企图遇到了难以逾越的法律问题，监狱系统作为一个整体最终将被老年囚犯占领。