The rapidly melting Arctic sea ice and permafrost is an “economic time bomb” likely to cost the world at least $60tn, say researchers who have started to calculate the financial consequences.

　　已开始计算财务后果的研究人员表示，北极正在快速融化的海冰和永久冻土是一个“经济定时炸弹”，很可能给世界造成至少60万亿美元的损失。

　　A record decline in Arctic sea ice has, until now, been widely seen as economically beneficial, as it opens up shipping lanes and the possibility of drilling in a region thought to contain 30 per cent of the world’s undiscovered gas and 13 per cent of its undiscovered oil.

　　此前，北极海冰创纪录的融化被普遍视为在经济上是有益的，因为它打通了航道，开启了在该地区开采资源的可能性。北极地区据信拥有全球30%的未探明天然气储量和13%的未探明石油储量。

　　However, the Arctic ice’s pivotal role in regulating ocean currents and climate means, as it melts, it is likely to cause changes that will damage crops, flood properties and wreck infrastructure around the world, according to research by academics at the UK’s University of Cambridge and Erasmus University Rotterdam in the Netherlands.

　　然而，英国剑桥大学(University of Cambridge)和荷兰鹿特丹伊拉斯姆斯大学(Erasmus University Rotterdam)的学者们进行的研究表明，北极冰在调控洋流和气候方面的关键角色意味着，海冰融化所引发的变化将损害作物、淹没房产，重创世界各地的基础设施。

　　This is likely to create costs that outstrip any benefits by three or more orders of magnitude, said Chris Hope of Cambridge’s Judge Business School.

　　剑桥大学佳奇商学院(Judge Business School)的克里斯?霍普(Chris Hope)表示，它可能导致的损失比任何效益高出三个或三个以上数量级。

　　“People are calculating possible economic benefits in the billions of dollars and we’re talking about possible costs and damage and extra impacts in the order of tens of trillions of dollars,” said Mr Hope.

　　霍普表示：“人们计算的潜在经济效益是数十亿美元，而我们在谈论数十万亿美元的可能代价、损害和额外冲击。”

　　The Arctic has been warming at least twice as fast as the rest of the world for many years and the amount of sea ice, which melts and refreezes annually, has been falling by an area almost the size of the UK each year since 2001.

　　多年来，北极地区变暖的速度至少是全球其他地区的两倍，而自2001年以来，每年融化并重新冻结的海冰面积一直在缩减，每年缩减的面积几乎相当于一个英国。

　　Last year, the summer ice shrank to its lowest point since satellite observations started in 1979.

　　去年，北极夏季海冰面积缩减到自1979年开始卫星监测以来的最低水平。

　　The European researchers have focused on the way warming Arctic waters are expected to hasten thawing of permafrost beneath the East Siberian Sea off northern Russia, believed to contain vast deposits of methane. This is a greenhouse gas some 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide, though it does not last as long in the atmosphere.

　　欧洲研究人员的研究重点在于，日益变暖的北极海水，正如何加快俄罗斯北方东西伯利亚海下面的永久冻土融化——那里据信蕴藏着大量甲烷。甲烷是一种温室气体，其温室效应比二氧化碳高出约20倍，尽管它在大气层中的停留时间没有二氧化碳那么长。

　　There is much debate about how long it might take to release these gas hydrate deposits, and what impact it would have. But some scientists say there is already evidence of large plumes of methane escaping and others fear this could happen fast enough to accelerate global warming and speed up changes such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, which contains enough water to push up sea levels by 7m.

　　围绕这些气体水化物储量的释放需要多长时间，以及它将会造成何种影响，目前各方正展开激烈辩论。但一些科学家表示，已经有证据显示大量的甲烷正在逃逸，其他人则担心，甲烷逃逸速度非常快，足以加速全球变暖并加快其它变化，如格陵兰岛冰原融化。格陵兰岛冰原若完全融化，足以导致海平面上升7米。

　　That is why the group felt it was important to assess the economic impact, said Peter Wadhams, a professor of ocean physics at Cambridge who believes the Arctic sea ice could vanish in summer by 2015.

　　剑桥大学的海洋物理学教授彼得?沃德汉姆斯(Peter Wadhams)表示，这就是研究人员认为评估经济影响非常重要的原因所在。沃德汉姆斯认为北极海冰可能在2015年夏季完全消失。

　　“We’re looking at a possibly catastrophic effect on the global climate that has been a consequence of this extremely fast sea ice retreat,” he said.

　　他表示：“我们正在研究这种极为迅速的海冰收缩可能对全球气候造成的灾难性影响。”(FT)