Host (Michael Parkhurst): Good evening, and welcome again to the 'Michael Parkhurst Talkabout'. In tonight's programme, we're looking at the problem of energy. The world's energy resources are limited. Nobody knows exactly how much fuel is left, but pessimistic forecasts say that there is only enough coal for 450 years, enough natural gas for 50 years and that oil might run out in 30 years. Obviously we have to do something, and we have to do it soon!
I'd like to welcome our first guest, Professor Marvin Burnham of the New England Institute of Technology. Professor Burnham.
Prof. Burnham: Well, we are in an energy crisis and we will have to do something quickly. Fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) are rapidly running out. The tragedy is that fossil fuels are far too valuable to waste on the production of electricity. Just think of all the things you can make from oil! If we don't start conserving these things now, it will be too late. And nuclear power is the only real alternative. We are getting some electricity from nuclear power stations already. If we invest in further research now, we'll be ready to face the future. There's been a lot of protest lately against nuclear power—some people will protest at anything—but nuclear power stations are not as dangerous as some people say. It's far more dangerous to work down a coal mine or on a North Sea oil-rig. Safety regulations in power stations are very strict.
If we spent money on research now, we could develop stations which create their own fuel and burn their own waste. In many parts of the world where there are no fossil fuels, nuclear power is the only alternative. If you accept that we need electricity, then we will need nuclear energy. Just imagine what the world would be like if we didn't have electricity—no heating, no lighting, no transport, no radio or TV. Just think about the ways you use electricity every day. Surely we don't want to go back to the Stone Age. That's what will happen if we turn our backs on nuclear research.
Host: Thank you, Professor. Our next guest is a member of CANE, the Campaign Against Nuclear Energy, Jennifer Hughes.
Jennifer Hughes: Right. I must disagree totally with Professor Burnham. Let's look at the facts. First, there is no perfect machine. I mean, why do aeroplanes crash? Machines fail. People make mistakes. What would happen if there were a serious nuclear accident? And an accident must be inevitable—sooner or later. Huge areas would be evacuated. And they could remain contaminated with radioactivity for years. If it happened in your area, you wouldn't get a penny in compensation. No insurance company covers nuclear risks. There are accidents. If the nuclear industry didn't keep them quiet, there would be a public outcry. Radioactivity causes cancer and may affect future generations. Next, nuclear waste. There is no technology for absolutely safe disposal. Some of this waste will remain active for thousands of years. Is that what you want to leave to your children? And their children's children? A reactor only lasts about 25 years. By the year 2000 we'll have 'retired' 26 reactors in the UK.
Next, terrorism. Terrorists could hold the nation to ransom if they captured a reactor. In the USA the Savannah River plant, and Professor Burnham knows this very well, lost (yes, 'lost') enough plutonium between 1955 and 1978 to make 18 (18!) atom bombs. Where is it? Who's got it? I consider that nuclear energy is expensive, dangerous, and evil, and most of all, absolutely unnecessary. But Dr. Woodstock will be saying more about that.
Host: Thank you Jennifer. Now I'm very pleased to welcome Dr. Catherine Woodstock. She is the author of several books on alternative technology.
Catherine Woodstock: Hello. I'd like to begin by agreeing with Jennifer. We can develop alternative sources of power, and unless we try we'll never succeed. Instead of burning fossil fuels we should be concentrating on more economic uses of electricity, because electricity can be produced from any source of energy. If we didn't waste so much energy, our resources would last longer. You can save more energy by conservation than you can produce for the same money. Unless we do research on solar energy, wind power, wave power, tidal power, hydroelectric schemes etc, our fossil fuels will run out, and we'll all freeze or starve to death. Other countries are spending much more than us on research, and don't forget that energy from the sun, the waves and the wind lasts for ever. We really won't survive unless we start working on cleaner, safer sources of energy.
Host: Thank you very much, Dr. Woodstock. Our final speaker, before we open the discussion to the studio audience, is Charles Wicks, MP, the Minister for Energy.
Charles Wicks: I've been listening to the other speakers with great interest. By the way, I don't agree with some of the estimates of world energy reserves. More oil and gas is being discovered all the time. If we listened to the pessimists (and there are a lot of them about) none of us would sleep at night. In the short term, we must continue to rely on the fossil fuels—oil, coal and gas. But we must also look to the future. Our policy must be flexible. Unless we thought new research was necessary, we wouldn't be spending money on it. After all, the Government wouldn't have a Department of Energy unless they thought it was important. The big question is where to spend the money—on conservation of present resources or on research into new forms of power. But I'm fairly optimistic. I wouldn't be in this job unless I were an optimist!
Mal Carrington: Good morning. Welcome to "The years to Come". I'm Mal Carrington, and every week at this time Channel 5 brings you information on life in the future from an expert in the field.
Today's expert is Dr Reginald Healy from MIT, the famous Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Good morning, Dr Healy. Welcome to The years to come.
Dr Healy: Thank you.
Mal Carrington: Well, what are your predictions about the world? What is it going to be like in the year 2000?
Dr Healy: Hum, if present trends continue, I'm afraid the world in 2000 will be more crowded and more polluted than the world we live in now.
Mal Carrington: Yes, however, food production is constantly increasing. Don't you think we will be able to cope with the increase in world population?
Dr Healy: I don't think so. Even though production is constantly increasing, the people of the world will be poorer than they are today. For hundreds of millions of the desperately poor, the supply of food and other necessities of life will not be any better. And for many they will be worse, unless the nations of the world do something to change the current trends.
Mal Carrington: What is your estimate of world population in AD 2000.
Dr Healy: Well, already, world population is about 5,000 million. If present trends continue, that is with the number of births by far exceeding the number of deaths in 2000 the world population could approach 6,500 million people.
Mal Carrington: How many people are born every day?
Dr Healy: About 250 every minute, but only 100 people die. This means there is an increase of 216,000 people per day, and ninety per cent of this increase is in the poorest countries.
Mal Carrington: That's worrying! And what about energy? Will there be enough oil to satisfy our needs in the year 2000?
Dr Healy: During the 1990s, world oil production will reach the maximum and the price of oil will begin to increase. At the end of the century, the available supplies will not be sufficient for our needs. So at least part of these needs will have to be met by alternative sources of energy.
Mal Carrington: Yes, water is becoming a problem too.
Dr Healy: Yes, unfortunately. Water shortage will become more severe in the future, and due to the increase of births there will be enough water only for half of the population.
Mal Carrington: Which of the present trends do you think will continue over the next decade?
Dr Healy: Well, significant loss of the world's forests will continue over the next ten years as the demand for wood for fuel and manufacturers increases. Also atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and other chemicals is expected to increase at rates that could alter the world's climate due to the 'greenhouse effect'.
Mal Carrington: The 'greenhouse effect'? Could you explain what the 'greenhouse effect' is?
Dr Healy: Sure. Well, the amount of carbon dioxide in the air is progressively increasing and it traps more of the heat of the sun in the lower atmosphere. This has a warming effect which could change the climate and even melt the polar ice caps, which would cause disastrous flooding.
Mal Carrington: I see. Is this the only effect of carbon dioxide?
Dr Healy: No, it isn't. Carbon dioxide and other chemicals which derive from the use of fossil fuels will also increase the quantity of acid rain which is already damaging or even destroying plants, trees and other parts of our environment. Also, there will be a dramatic increase in the number of species becoming extinct. Hundreds of thousands of species will be lost because of the loss of their habitat.
Mal Carrington: That's appalling! What about nuclear plants? Aren't they a constant menace to life on our planet?
Dr Healy: Definitely. And apart from the more obvious danger of accidents, like the one at Chemobyl, there's the problem of the disposal of nuclear waste, that is the waste which is produced by nuclear power stations.
Mal Carrington: Oh, yes. I know that some of the materials keep their radioactivity for hundreds or thousands of years.
Dr Healy: Yeah, for example, strontium 90 needs storing for 500 years, being kept cool all the time. Plutonium-239 may need storing for up to half a million years!
Mal Carrington: So, what is going to happen to the Earth in the next few years? Will we be able to reverse this trend towards destruction? What is your prediction?
Dr Healy: Well, I don't want to be pessimistic, but I'm afraid that if this trend doesn't change within five or ten years we won't be able to do very much to save the earth.
Mal Carrington: Well, that's a warning that we all need to take seriously. And with that warning, we end part one of this week's The years to come. We'll be back soon after the break.
Mal Carrington: Here we are again with "The years to Come". Now I'd like to tell you about and to show you the pictures of an exciting new project which is the result of the cooperation of scientists, engineers and technicians from virtually all over the world.
Towards the end of the 90s, a bright new celestial body will appear in the night sky like an immense shining star, fully visible from 38 degrees north or south of the equator. It will be a space station, Freedom. The idea for Freedom originated in the USA, but eleven other nations have agreed to contribute a few of the station's many parts.
The space station is not going to be launched into orbit in one piece—the thousands of parts which make up Freedom are going to be assembled directly in space. Twenty trips by the shuttle and two rockets will be needed to deliver Freedom, piece by piece, into a low orbit around the Earth. Then, 250 miles above the Earth, construction crews are going to bolt together the space station's many components. The first batch of parts is going to be launched in 1995. By the end of 1996, the first crew of eight is going to enter the living module to begin what NASA hopes will be a continuous human presence in space. The station has been designed to remain occupied and operational for up to thirty years—a whole generation of living in space. Considering that the first man-made object reached orbit just thirty years ago, that will be quite an accomplishment. The design of a space station must combine the excitement of space with the necessity for safety and comfort. Freedom will be the best solution to date and will also be the most complex computerized house ever built—either on Earth or in space. There will be accommodation for eight people and each crew member will have his or her own room, a shower, a toilet, exercise equipment, a washing machine, a pantry, and a sick bay. Add a television, video, phone and computer to each of the eight private sleeping rooms, then top it off with the best view on Earth. Is this some wild new 'luxury house' of the future? Exactly. Life on board will also be brightened by a plan to fill twenty percent of the larder with fresh refrigerated fruit, vegetable and dairy products.
Behind every space station lies the dream that is at least 120 years old: a colony in space. Freedom is not going to be that colony, for it will always depend on the Earth for supplies. But it is going to be the place where scientists discover how to establish healthy and productive human habitation in space. When new technology is developed to make it less risky, we will see more civilians in space. So an eighteen-year-old can look forward to visiting space by his or her sixty-eighth birthday, in 2050.
And that's the end of this week's programme. Tune in next week for another edition of The years to come. The years to come is a Channel 5 production and this is Mal Carrington.
1. Two years ago, ... when I landed on your soil, I said to the people of the Philippines. 'Whence I came I shall return.' Tonight, I repeat those words. I shall return.
(Douglas MacArthur 17/03/44)
2. I have a dream that one day on the red hills of Georgia, sons of former slaves and the sons of former slaveowners will be able to sit down together at the table of brotherhood. I have a dream that one day, even the state of Mississippi, a state sweltering with the heat of injustice, sweltering with the heat of oppression, will be transformed into an oasis of freedom and justice. I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the colour of their skin, but by the content of their character.
(Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr. 28/08/63)
3. One thought him indestructible, so over-powering was he in his energy, warmth and his deep faith in man's inherent goodness. For 25 years he had been my friend, my older brother, my inspiration and my teacher.
(Henry Kissinger 02/02/79)
4. I have said this before, but I shall say it again, and again, and again. Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars.
(Franklin D. Roosevelt 30/10/40)
5. I have never been a quitter. To leave office before my term is completed is abhorrent to every instinct in my body. But, as President, I must put the interests of America first. America needs a full-time President and a full-time Congress. Particularly at this time, with problems we face at home and abroad. To continue to fight through the months ahead for my personal vindication would almost totally absorb the time and attention of both the President and the Congress in a period when our entire focus should be on the great issues of peace abroad and prosperity without inflation at home.
(Richard M. Nixon 08/08/74)
6. In the past several months I have been living in purgatory. I have found myself the recipient of undefined, unclear, unattributed accusations that have surfaced in the largest and the most widely circulated organs of our communications media. I want to say, at this point, clearly and unequivocally: I am innocent of the charges against me.
(Spiro T. Agnew 29/09/73)
Killing Me Softly With His Song
I heard he sang a good song
I heard he had a style
And so I came to see him to listen for a while.
And there he was this young boy
A stranger to my eyes
Strumming my pain with his fingers
Singing my life with his words
Killing me softly with his song
Killing me softly with his song
Telling my whole life with his words
Killing me softly with his song
I felt all flushed with fever
Embarrassed by the crowd
I felt he found my letters and read each one out loud
I prayed that he would finish
But he just kept right on
Strumming my pain with his fingers
Singing my life with his words
Killing me softly with his song
Killing me softly with his song
Telling my whole life with his words
Killing me softly with his song
He sang as if he knew me in all my dark despair
And then he looked right through me as if I wasn't there
And he just kept on singing
Singing clear and strong
Strumming my pain with his fingers
Singing my life with his words
Killing me softly with his song
Killing me softly with his song
Telling my whole life with his words
Killing me softly with his song
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