2019年经济学人 欧洲天然气供应 (2)（在线收听）

The project now involves dozens of companies, including BP, an oil major, and Socar and TPAO, the state oil companies of Azerbaijan and Turkey respectively.

现在该项目涉及几十家公司，包括石油巨头BP以及Socar 和TPAO，两家分别为阿塞拜疆和土耳其的国有石油公司。

Despite the years of planning and complexity of the project, its capacity, at 16bn cubic metres per year, is about half what European planners had hoped.

虽然规划多年且项目复杂，但其每年160亿立方米的产能约为欧洲规划者所期待的一半。

The SGC is set to meet just 2% of EU demand.

SGC仅能满足欧盟需求的2%。

At market prices, SGC gas is competitive in Turkey and south-east European countries but not in the more distant western European markets.

在市场价格上，SGC天然气在土耳其和欧洲东南部很具竞争力，但在更远的西欧市场则失去了竞争力。

Moreover, one of its developers is Lukoil, an oil firm backed by Russia.

此外，其开发商之一是卢克石油，一家由俄罗斯支持的石油公司。

In its current form the SGC therefore does little to curb dependence on Russia. That is unlikely to change, for two reasons.

在其目前的形式中，SGC确实无法抑制对俄罗斯的依赖。这一点不可能改变，原因有两点。

First, in addition to NS2, Russia has devised its own plans to bring gas into southern Europe.

首先，除了NS2外，俄罗斯已计划将天然气运往南欧。

TurkStream, a pipeline to transport Russian gas across the Black Sea to Turkey, is scheduled to become operational this year.

TurkStream这条沿黑海将俄罗斯天然气运往土耳其的管道计划于今年运营。

Gazprom, Russia's energy giant (and NS2's sole shareholder), plans to build a second line to the EU and is negotiating its destination.

俄罗斯能源巨头Gazprom（也是NS2的唯一股东）计划建立通往欧盟的第二条线，线路终点还在协商中。

That would make the EU-backed SGC even less competitive.

这将使EU支持的SGC更不具竞争力。

Second, changes that would make the SGC more commercially viable are unlikely.

第二，变化使得SGC更不可能具备商业利益可行性。

Advocates of the project argue that they plan to double the volume of exports if more gas becomes available, notably from Turkmenistan.

该项目的支持者争辩称如果能够得到更多的天然气，尤其是来自土库曼斯坦的天然气，那么他们计划将出口量翻倍。

But the expansion would require new infrastructure and additional costs.

但是扩张需要新的设施和额外的成本。

A way of avoiding that would be to feed new gas from Turkmenistan into SGC through a swap deal involving transit through Iran.

避免这些需求的方法是通过交换协议（通过伊朗进行中转）从土库曼斯坦供送新的天然气到SGC

But renewed American sanctions on Iran preclude this option.

但是美国恢复对伊朗的制裁妨碍了这一选项。

They also hinder the development of rich gas resources in Iran, which could have otherwise been exported to the EU.

他们还阻碍了伊朗丰富天然气资源的开发，否则这些天然气可以出口给欧盟。

At least one energy giant appears to take seriously the idea that the SGC could expand.

至少有一位能源巨头似乎认真考虑过SGC扩张的问题。

But it will not reassure the EU that this firm is none other than Gazprom, whose chief executive has said it would bid for access.

但这无法消除EU的疑虑—这家公司正是俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司（Gazprom），其CEO表示公司将参与竞标。

European rules require the SGC to open capacity expansion to the most cost-competitive supplier.

欧洲法规要求SGC对最有成本竞争力的供应商扩大生产力。

In that event, Gazprom's vast reserves and low costs would be hard to rival.

如果那样的话，则很难与Gazprom丰富的储量和低廉的成本竞争。

A project touted as a way to diversify Europe's gas supply might end up providing an additional route for its current, unloved, supplier.

一个被吹捧为扩大欧洲天然气供应方法的项目，结果可能是为其目前失宠的供应商提供了额外的线路。