2019年经济学人中国经济:关税后的生活(1)（打印版）

A year ago an economic forecasting unit in the Chinese government published an outlook for the coming year.

一年前，中国政府的一个经济预测部门发布了明年的经济展望。

The big worry, it concluded, was the external environment. Shipments to America, China's biggest customer, would suffer as the trade war dragged on.

其总结到，最大的担忧是外部环境。随着贸易战的继续，中国对其最大客户美国的出口将受到影响。

China had maxed out its exports to other big countries, and others were too small to make a difference.

中国对其他大国的出口已经达到了极限，而其他国家太小，无法发挥作用。

So China's boffins are, like many others, surprised by how things have gone.

因此中国的研究员和许多其他人一样，对事情的发展感到惊讶。

Exports to America are indeed down, by nearly 15% so far this year. But exports to the rest of the world have been much stronger.

对美国的出口确实下降了，今年到目前为止下降了近15%。但中国对世界其它地区的出口要强劲得多。

China, it turns out, had more to sell to its big customers: exports to Europe are on track to surpass exports to America this year.

事实证明，中国有更多的东西要卖给它的大客户：今年对欧洲的出口有望超过对美国的出口。

Meanwhile exports to smaller markets in South-East Asia, such as Vietnam and Malaysia, have boomed.

此外，对东南亚小市场，如越南和马来西亚的出口暴涨。

According to data from CPB World Trade Monitor, China's share of global exports has reached 11.9%, slightly higher than in July 2018,

根据CPB全球贸易监测，中国占全球出口的份额已达到11.9%，略高于2018年7月

when the first American tariffs hit. Sluggish imports—in part because of a domestic slowdown—

美国首次征收关税时的水平。进口疲软—部分原因是国内经济放缓—

mean the trade surplus is set to be about a quarter bigger in 2019 than in 2018.

意味着2019年的贸易顺差将比2018年高出四分之一左右。

One explanation for China's resilient exports is the yuan's 6% depreciation against the dollar since the trade war began.

中国出口之所以有弹性，原因之一是自贸易战开始以来，人民币兑美元贬值了6%。

That has blunted the tariffs' impact. China's currency has also weakened against other major trading partners.

这削弱了关税的影响。人民币兑其他主要贸易伙伴的汇率也有所下降。

A second is goods routed through other countries to avoid tariffs. Some sent to South-East Asia have ended up in America.

第二是通过其他国家运送货物以避免关税。一些被送往东南亚的货物最后到了美国。